Caesars Sportsbook provides all odds
Here are the details you should know for Wednesday’s post-season games
Brunson is your backerThe Mavericks finished fifth in the percentage of points beyond the arc scored during the regular season. This is something they should embrace when playing against the Suns. Dallas has made a lot of effort to adopt this style. Jalen BrunsonBrunson may be the odd one out. Brunson shot just one of his 16 Game 1 shots from the distance. This is not an accident considering he has shot 23.8% at 3-point range in the past two weeks. Brunson isn’t spreading the floor with Luka DoncicHe is now a regular player in the lineup and no longer requires to play a role as a playmaker. Brunson will continue drawing tough matchups as the Mavs seem to be running their offense through Doncic. While he may play better tonight than Game 1, it is safe to assume that he will bounce back from his loss and reach his scoring goal of 18.5 against Phoenix’s strong defenses.
Go-to option: The Heat is identified James HardenWithout being the leader of the 76ers’ offense Joel EmbiidMonday night on the court, and that opened up the door. Tobias HarrisProduce. Harris scored 27 points, had 23 field goals + free throws attempts, and was responsible for four assists + turnovers. Harris led Philadelphia in shots and minutes, while accounting for 5.6%. Harris will be able to score his Game 2 scoring props, despite Embiid’s uncertain status.
Tyler the creator Tyler HerroWith his creations in the playoffs, he has been quite the force to reckon with Kyle Lowry out. Lowry is off the floor and Lowry’s assist percentage increases from 19% to 24.7%. Lowry is likely to play about 30 minutes per game with a strong usage rate. Herro’s assist percentage of 3.5 might be worth looking into tonight.
Exploiting Jordan:The 76ers are committed to starting DeAndre JordanIn Embiid’s absence Bam AdebayoThe soft matchup was won by Jordan. The 76ers were minus-12 during Jordan’s four minutes on the floor, and minus-22 over his 17 minutes on Monday night. Tonight, Adebayo continues to face one the NBA’s most vulnerable defensive centers.
DFS in DFS Dorian Finney-SmithHe has averaged 12.4 rebounding chance per game in the playoffs, placing second on the Mavericks to Doncic. Dallas relied on a smaller roster recently. Finney-Smith is a viable building block for DFS competition due to his ability to stretch and clean the floor. Over the past two playoff games, he has averaged 28 points, assists, rebounds, and his PAR of 19.5 seems possible.
— Jim McCormick & Kyle Soppe
Today’s games broken down
Philadelphia 76ersAt Miami Heat
7:30 p.m. ET, FTX Arena in Miami
LineHeat (-8)
Moneyline: Heat (-440),76ers (+340).
Total: 207.5 Points
BPI Projected Total209.4 Points
BPI Win% Heat (80.3%)
Questionable: Tyler Herro(left ankle sprain). P.J. Tucker (calf), Caleb Martin (ankle), Gabe Vincent (knee irritation), Max Strus (hamstring)
Out: Joel Embiid (concussion), Kyle Lowry (hamstring)
Note: BPI numbers are used to account for players who have been ruled out, but assume that questionable players will still play
Notable: Six Heat games in succession have fallen below the point total. Vegas has lost its projection in three straight games. (If tonight’s line closes at 208.5, it will be four).
Your best option: Bam AdebayoOver 29.5 points + rebound. Philadelphia allowed 52 points on 32 defensive possessions DeAndre JordanIt’s 17:17 on floor. Doc Rivers indicated that Jordan would start Game 2 again, meaning Adebayo will have a huge night. Eric Moody
Your best option: James Harden Below 40.5 points + assists + rebound. This will be my next project. I won’t stop until the market changes it to the mid-30s. Harden is not the same player he was once in terms of explosiveness and athleticism. His offensive efficiency has dropped precipitously since he lost that aspect of his offensive arsenal. The Beard’s production has been impacted by the lack of Embiid, which allows the Heat defense more focus on Harden. Harden scored just 16 points in Game 1, and had 9 rebounds, 5 assists and 5 rebounds in Game 1. He also fell below this threshold in five of the seven 76ers’ postseason games. — Tyler Fulghum
Your best option: Tyler HerroOver 18.5 pointsHerro was left out of Game 1 by the 76ers. Herro became the first Heat player with at least 25 assists and five points from the bench in a playoff match. Herro’s success should continue tonight with Lowry out Moody
Best bet is 76ers with less than 99.5 total points. The Heat’s defense rating is second in the playoffs with only 101.9 points allowed per 100 possessions. Both the Heat (94.7 possessions/game), and the 76ers (91.4) have played at an even slower pace during the playoffs. Miami has been particularly aggressive on defense at home. Their opponents have averaged just 95.5 PPG, and they scored less than 99.5 in three of their four home games. — Andre Snellings
Dallas MavericksAt Phoenix Suns
10 p.m. ET, Footprint Center in Phoenix
Line: Suns (-6)
Moneyline: Suns (-260), Mavericks (210)
Total: 216 points
BPI Projected Total213.2 Points
BPI Win% Suns (71.1%)
Notable: Phoenix has won five of its six previous games, three exceeding the total by at least 10 goals.
Your best option: Chris PaulMore than 9.5 assists. The score indicated that Game 1 between Suns and Mavericks was not as close as it appeared. Paul did not dish out three assists and that is unlikely to be the case for Game 2. In the playoffs, he has averaged 9.0 points per game over the past two seasons. Eric Moody
Your best option: Luka Doncic Over 51.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds
Although it is reasonable to expect some regression after his 45 points and 12 rebounds in Game 1, there’s no denying that Luka Doncic was still the focus. In Game 1, he played 44 minutes, took 30 shots, and made 14 free throws. It’s not likely that the Suns will blow the Mavs out the water. Game 2 should be similar, even if his minutes are a bit shorter. Doncic has been averaging 33.4 points, 9.3 rebound and 8.8 assists over 17 career playoff games. This isn’t a small gamer, but Doncic is an avid gamer.Fulghum
Your best option: Deandre AytonOver 29.5 points + rebound. Dallas will have trouble slowing Ayton down. Dwight Powell Maxi Kleber. Monday night was Ayton’s dominating performance in the paint. He shot 9-for-15, while the Mavericks were unable to stop him. I expect more of that in Game 2. Moody
Your best option: Devin BookerOver 35.5 points + assists + rebound. Booker played Game 1 for 38 minutes and appeared more like himself than in the last round. Except for the one in which Booker was hurt and his first game back (Game 1), Booker has averaged more than 35.5 PAR in nine out of 10 games. — Andre Snellings