Jump ahead: Game of the night | Picks and props | Analytics edge
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Here are the details you should know about Thursday’s playoff games
It’s a Numbers Game CJ McCollumPelicans are very important because he can score in big numbers. New Orleans has had a difficult matchup with the Suns, which will continue in Game 6. McCollum doesn’t have the benefit of efficiency or pace when trying for big scoring nights. The pace in this series is 4.7% lower than what the Pelicans had played during the final month. McCollum has shot below 39% from the field in four out of five games. He did however make six free throws in game 5, but didn’t reach the stripe in the 36-minute time span the last time these teams met in New Orleans.
Volume over Everything DFS is the best way to make money in the prop market or cash overs. You must be on the court. The Raptors have a core rotation that rides with them. The regular season saw Toronto operate with four players who logged at most 39 minutes per game in Game 5. Given Fred VanVleetThere’s no reason for the Raptors to abandon that strategy given’s status. Gary Trent Jr. VanVleet being sidelined meant that he was more involved with Game 5. With six points in the first quarter, he led the Raptors. It’s reasonable to expect more tonight. Although Matisse ThybulleThis postseason, he has been less active and it is only good for Toronto.
Close Out Chris: Chris PaulPaul has been a great player lately and the Suns can count on him to help them win the series against the Pelicans tonight. Paul’s average PPG has been 33.3 on 61.3% shooting, with 7.7 APG. While CP3 has not shown much in the analytics department, he is still a good DFS option.
Point Pascal Pascal SiakamThe Raptors have 12.2 potential assists per games, but his assist prop is a mere 5.5 for Game 6. Siakam’s value is worth considering. Scottie BarnesIn this crucial contest, they will be bringing their best.
Doncic DimesIt’s not often you can find it. Luka DoncicThe assist prop was at 7.5. However, this is the situation heading into Game 6 in Utah. Doncic was Dallas’s leading scorer with 12 assists in Game 5, and should be the team’s leader again in Game 6. Doncic will likely play close to 35 minutes, with the chance to finish out the series.
— Jim McCormick & Kyle Soppe
Game of the Night
Philadelphia 76ersat Toronto Raptors
7 p.m. ET, Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON, CA
Line: 76ers (-1.5)
Money line Raptors (+105), 76ers (-125), Raptors
Total: 210.5 Points
BPI Projected Total214.8 Points
BPI Win% 76ers (55.2%)
We have ruled out key players: Matisse Thybulle
Questionable: Fred VanVleet (hip)
Notable: Although the Raptors didn’t cover their first four home games this season as underdogs, they have now covered five of six.
The best bet is: Joel EmbiidBelow 42.5 points + assists + rebound. Embiid’s performance has been inconsistent since he sustained a thumb injury in his right thumb. Over the past two games, Embiid has managed to average 20.5 PPG and 9.5 RPG. He also has 3.5 APG. But he stated that it is more difficult for him rebound, shoot, and pass. Although his numbers are down, I believe he will have a strong game when the 76ers try to win the series against the Raptors. To reach 42.5 PAR, he would need to make a huge improvement across all areas of the game and it’s not likely that he is physically capable. — André Snellings
The best bet is: Joel EmbiidOver 11.5 reboundsEmbiid’s rebounds change depending on how high the Raptors’ field goal percentage is. However, Embiid has still managed to average 11.6 RPG this series and 13 over the past 24. The 76ers will attempt to keep the Raptors off the court, which will provide Embiid with plenty of rebound opportunities. Eric Moody
The best bet is: Pascal SiakamOver 5.5 aids. Siakam can get into the zone if he is fully pass-first. Siakam and OG Anunoby tend to drive-then score when they get moving. Siakam, however, is a different kind of player. He drives to disrupt the defense and kicks the ball out to allow teammates to score the 3-pointer. Siakam, if VanVleet is not there, will be the best point guard for the team and lead the team’s assists. — Snellings
The best bet is: James HardenMore than 20.5 points. Embiid challenged Harden, Doc Rivers in his postgame quotes. Embiid hopes Harden will be more aggressive offensively. It would surprise me if he didn’t deliver tonight. Harden was averaging 13.6 FGA with 21 PPG in 14 regular-season games in Philadelphia. Harden has been well protected by the Raptors during this series. However, star players like Harden look to overcome those obstacles rather than get stifled. Moody
The rest of the slate must be broken down
Phoenix Sunsat New Orleans Pelicans
7:30 p.m. ET, Smoothie Kings Center, New Orleans (LA)
Line: Suns (-2.0).
Money line Suns (-135) and Pelicans (+115).
Total:214 points
BPI Projected Total 215.2 points
BPI Win% Suns (64.9%)
We have ruled out key players:none
Questionable: Devin Booker
Notable: Although the Suns won their last five games of January as road favorites, they have been ranked just 5-8 in such places since then.
The best bet is: Chris PaulMore than 31.5 points + assist. Paul scored 20 points and had 10 assists in his 31st playoff game on Tuesday night. He ranks third behind Magic Johnson (60), LeBron James (43) and LeBron (16). Tonight could be his 32nd. Paul is aware of the importance of closing out a series and is ready for it. Moody
Dallas Mavericksat Utah Jazz
10 p.m. ET VivintSmart Home Arena, Salt Lake City. UT
Line: (-1.5)
Money line Mavericks (-110), Jazz (-110)
Total: 209.5 points
BPI Projected Total 216.8
BPI Win% Mavericks (54.9%)
No key players were ruled out
Notable: In Dallas’ nine previous road games, the Overs have been 7-2 (including four consecutive wins).
The best bet is: Jalen BrunsonOver 28.5 points + assists + rebound. Brunson continues his dominance of the Jazz. In five consecutive games, Brunson has scored 20 or more points. In this series, he has scored an average of 28.6 points per game, 4.6 points per game and 5.2RPG. This trend should continue in Game 6. Moody
Mavericks (-1.5) is your best bet.The Mavericks defeated the Jazz by 25 points in Game 5, despite shooting only 43% from the field, and 27.9% from deep. The Jazz look out of sorts this month. To make matters worse, Donovan MitchellIt is not close to 100%, and has hamstring issues and quad issues. With a long vacation on its horizon, I think Utah waved the white flag in the 2nd half while Dallas brought down the curtain. — Joe Fortenbaugh
Analytics edge
BPI Projected Maximum Totals
1. Phoenix Suns (109.7 points)
2. Dallas Mavericks (109.1 points)
3. Philadelphia 76ers (108.1 points)
BPI projections of lowest levels
1. New Orleans Pelicans (105.5 points)
2. Toronto Raptors (106.7 points)
3. Utah Jazz (107.7 points)
BPI top win probability (straight up).
1. Phoenix Suns (64.9%)
2. Philadelphia 76ers (55.2%)
3. Dallas Mavericks (54.9%)