In the offseason, the 2022 NFL Draft has become a popular betting destination for football fans. Although this year’s draft is expected to be the most unpredictable, if you manage your cards well, you can make a nice profit.
There are many questions about the value of one of the most important sports events in a year where nothing is certain.
Our experts will answer all your questions about betting and help you make informed wagering decisions for Thursday night.
Caesars Sportsbook provides all odds
Aidan HutchinsonWas the odds-on favorite for No. From Monday to Monday. Are you looking for the smartest bet? Travon Walkeror another player to take the first place on the board?
Moody: While the odds of Hutchinson winning the top spot on the board have changed, I still like Hutchinson. My opinion is that it is difficult to envision any other players being selected with the top pick, other than Walker and Hutchinson. The Jaguars need to improve their pass rush. Last season’s 32 sacks were tied for fifth most in the NFL. Hutchinson, the Heisman finalist in college football, is the better player. Walker, however has all the attributes and potential to become a top pass-rusher for Georgia. Reports suggest that there has been an internal struggle for the No. Jaguars owner Shad Kan will still get his pick.
Fulghum:Hutchinson doesn’t make a good bet for No. In my eyes, he is No. 1. Although he is ranked 10th in my board, I am not an NFL GM. So take that as a compliment. The bottom line is that he has only one year of Michigan production. Although he passed his tests well, he is lacking some of the key traits you look for in a defensive end (armlength and flexibility being the most important). Walker Kayvon ThibodeauxBoth are better prospects for the same position because of elite measurables, better production and both have better prospects. Walker is now the odds-on favorite for the No. 1 spot. 1. Overall pick.
Marks:Hutchinson’s arm length is the biggest problem. He measures 32.13 inches compared to Thibodeaux’s 34-inch arms and Travon Walker’s 35.50 inches arms. Even though he has a powerful motor, very few NFL pass-rushers have short arms. Walker’s physical attributes make him an even better player, with comparisons to Bruce Smith. Jadeveon Clowney. Walker will be No. 1 overall.
What’s your betting strategy for this year’s QB class
Fortenbaugh:I’m taking Desmond RidderOver 28.5 (-135) Ridder is a great leader and culture person. Ridder’s problem is his accuracy and arm strength, which are essential skills for success as an NFL quarterback. We get sucked into the belief that quarterbacks are valuable, and that first-round picks have a fifth year option, so many quarterbacks will be chosen in the first round. Because this QB class has been weak, I won’t subscribe to it this season.
Moody: I would consider two options. The first is to think Kenny Pickett under 12.5 (+140). It is highly probable that the Panthers will pick a quarterback with No. 6 pick, after not being able to land any high end options through trades. Pickett is the most ready QB prospect this class, and likely the safer pick with Matt Rhule potentially in the hot seat. Pickett was the school’s all time leader in passing yards (12303), completions (1.045), total offense (11.3112) and passing touchdowns (81). Pickett, who is 6’3″ tall, has great mobility and size. Rhule has worked with Pickett, so there aren’t any clear-cut top quarterback prospects in this group.
Second, you can go with less than 3.0 quarterbacks who were drafted in Round 1. Pickett and Malik WillisThere are locks but I cannot see how Ridder and Matt CorralIt would be easy to sneak in.
Marks: None of these quarterbacks should be drafted in the first round. This is one of the worst draft classes for QBs we’ve seen in a while. Given the depth at various positions, I wouldn’t be surprised if there are no QBs selected in the first round. Take the under at 3.0 this year.
Kezirian:Anita’s thoughts are my own. Although there are always risks that a general manager will feel pressure, if they have to, they won’t waste their precious first-round picks on a guy not affiliated with the franchise. I would play Pickett over 12.5 (+-175), Willis over 9.5 (-200). The idea of Carolina having a No. 1 quarterback is not something I believe in. 6 pick, and the Panthers have no other pick until the fourth round. They can’t afford not to draft a veteran impact player in exchange for a huge unknown QB. If the first QB is drafted, I would not recommend this. There are simply too many moving pieces. I don’t see an edge.
It’s rare to see teams running backs with their top choice. Do you think the top pick will be the first to leave the board on Thursday? Or are we still waiting for Friday?
Moody: Friday. Over the past 20 years, only 2.1 runningbacks have been chosen in the first round. Although the 2022 class isn’t the best at finding an all-down back, there are many prospects with specific skills that can help NFL teams. Breece HallThe first running back to be selected No. 37th overall in Mel Kiper Jr.’s and Todd McShay’s most recent mock draft.
Marks: This is also a weak RB category. The past has shown that teams can find diamonds even in the rough in later rounds. It is impossible to find talent in other positions than the one you choose. Kenneth Walker IIIHe should be the first to be selected as a RB, but I believe he will go in the second round.
Walder:Friday, for two reasons. The first is that the Draft Day PredictorHe believes there is only 16% chance Hall, the top-ranked back in the class, will be selected in the first round. Although some people speculate that the Bills could select Hall at 25, it does not make sense to me that they would choose a runningback in the first round. Buffalo is an analytically-minded organization that has abandoned running backs in their running game and instead opted to pass and use designed QB runs — a strong trade-off. It would be counterproductive to their strategy to invest heavily in the least-efficient part of their offense.
In addition to TE Kyle Pitts, five WRs were eliminated from the board in last year’s first round. What are you going to do with the WR position?
Moody:It is me who will be chosen first from wide receivers. Garrett Wilson (+120), Jameson Williams(+200) Drake LondonCaesars rates them as the current favorites (+200). McShay and Kiper Jr.’s latest mock drafts show Wilson as the first receiver on the board. I agree with McShay. The Falcons need help at receiver. Calvin RidleyHe was suspended for the remainder of the season. Wilson’s frame, combine measurables, and Wilson’s height are similar to Ridley. Wilson is the wide receiver with the most versatility in this class who can make an immediate difference.
Kezirian: I honestly wouldn’t want to play the WR pros. It’s just too much for the top guys, and it is not clear what the teams at the back are thinking. This is just my preference. I hope (and kind of expect) that I will win every draft bet, or have incredible value with long-shot odds. Tyler is right. I agree with Tyler. However, I prefer over 36.5. George PickensDue to his uncertain injury history, he was unable to participate.
Marks: Wilson to make it in the top 10 is one of my favorite props. He is easily the best WR this draft. He can run smooth routes, is very mobile and offensive coordinators are able to place him wherever they want. Wilson is one of the few NFL players who can achieve this feat. He could be the Texans’ No. 1 pick. He’ll be No. 3 overall, but the Falcons will not get him past 8.
What number of offensive linemen will you take in the first round (over/under 7.5)?
Moody:I prefer the under. This class has many top offensive line prospects. We could even see the best prospects leave the board on Day 2 or 3. Only the Houston Texans (Seahawks), New Orleans Saints and Seattle Seahawks are allowed to prioritize offensive lines in Round 1.
Kezirian:This prop is absurd. 7.5 is too high. Although the juice is now at -200, other shops offer 6.5 which is more accurate. At 7.5, the under is still one of my best plays, even at -200. Although we could only see five drafts in the first round it was hard to see eight.
Fulghum:The UNDER has been a strong play for this OL prop. The price moved to a highly juiced -200 a few days prior to the draft. Tackles Ikem Ekwonu, Evan Neal, Charles Cross Trevor PenningBecause of their positional values, these locks seem like first-round lock. Iowa center Tyler LinderbaumWhile he is definitely a first-round talent his position doesn’t receive nearly as much consideration. Similar could be said about guards like Kenyon Green (Texas A&M) and Zion Johnson (Boston College). Both are very good prospects. However, teams do not spend premium picks for guards unless they’re Quenton Nelson. All remaining tackle prospects, including the four mentioned, have enough questions to make it into the second round. I think that six of the offensive linemen (Ekwonu. Cross. Penning. Linderbaum. Green.
Walder:Below, but I am glad you were able get it back when the juice was only 130. This was the Draft Day PredictorIt was’s strongest call one week ago and still believes under at -200. There are probably four first-round OL locks available: Cross, Cross, and Penning. Linderbaum and Johnson are all in the range of possible to likely. Tyler Smith Bernhard RaimannHave a chance too. Here’s the important part: Their chances of being chosen are not independent. You will need to simulate the draft in order to find out the answers. Our model predicts that there is an 87% chance that the under will win.
Are there any top-rated players who are willing to place a bet on over/under?
Fulghum: George PickensBelow 36.5 (-130), and LB Quay Walker under 38.5 (-115)Two stand out to me. Both should be selected in the first round. Pickens is a true X receiver in this group of wideout prospects. This skill set is so important in today’s NFL. Pickens is one of the most skilled receivers in the class, and can also block in the run. He was injured in an ACL accident last season. However, he returned to play in the College Football Playoff National Championship. If Jameson WilliamsPickens’ knee isn’t a concern for teams.
Walker has the size and dimensions necessary to excel at the next level. Walker is a teammate Nakobe Dean gets more attention, but scouts likely value Walker’s measurables (6-foot-4, 241 pounds, 32⅝-inch arms, 4.52 40-yard dash) more for the next level, where length is becoming far more important for linebackers to match up with RBs and TEs simultaneously. It wouldn’t surprise me if Walker is called in the second round, while Dean slips to the third.
Kezirian: More than 21.5 George Karlaftis. Karlaftis continues his slide on big boards, and could not even be a top-round pick. This prop opened on 14.5 and has been consistently bet over. It was not moved aggressively by the oddsmakers. Mel Kiper Jr. stated that Karlaftis’ probability starts at the 22nd pick.
Marks:To Doug’s Karlaftis prediction I am thinking that I will bet a bottle of wine. He doesn’t make it past the Eagles at 18 I’ve heard from Scouts that his upside has been compared to his downside. T.J. WattSo, I really like the under at 21.5. Sam HowellBelow 45.5 Treylon Burks under 23.5. Howell is the greatest QB in this class, and Burks the best slot WR. I’ll take Chris OlaveSince his 32-inch vertical is unlikely to cut it in the NFL, he’ll likely be over 16.5 Trent McDuffieAnother favorite bet is the one below 17.5 McDuffie may end up being the greatest CB in this draft. McDuffie is an excellent cover player, a great tackler, and can play the ball well at 5’11”.
Walder:Cross over 7.5 is my favorite at +210. He could definitely go before then — Matt Miller, Matt’s colleague wrote last Tuesday“The buzz surrounding the Giants & Cross has been building since weeks,” but I’m enjoying all the plus-money and playing the uncertainty. There are many ways this could go wrong. Surprise non-Cross picks, Giants trading out to acquire 2023 picks, New York preferring another tackle. There’s very little room in that top seven once we have added Walker, Hutchinson, Thibodeaux. Ahmad GardnerThe two other top tackles are, and possibly a quarterback or someone similar to Derek Stingley Jr.
Which are the best and most dangerous landing spots for fantasy stars?
Moody: Hall has top-10 potential as a running back if he is drafted by the Texans. His unique combination of creativity, size, and power will make him a regular in Houston. Hall is the fifth-best Iowa State player to rush more than 1,000 yards in multiple season, making him the ninth in Iowa State history.
Wilson is a highly fantasy-worthy player if the Falcons pick him. The Falcons have 225 targets and 1,982 air yards available heading into the 2022 season.
Trey McBrideHe could end up as a TE1 should he go to the Giants. McBride was voted college football’s best tight end and would be able to play on a team that allows him to shine. A Giants team is looking for replacements and has 206 targets available. Evan Engram.
Marks: Wilson will likely end up in Atlanta. His fantasy potential is huge because of the amount of money he will get. Green Bay has 2 selections in the initial round: 22 and 28. One of these will be used by the Packers on a WR, according to me. Williams, Burks or London Jahan DotsonBurks is my favourite of the group and could be on the board. It will be interesting to see if he goes to Green Bay. North Dakota State WR is another prospect worth keeping an eye on. Christian Watson . Scouts often compare him with Deebo Samuel.
Based on ESPN, which are the top props that we should be looking at? Draft Day predictor?
Walder:The Predictor’s favourite prop right now is Below 10.5 SEC players were selected in the first round (+120).. Walker, Neal and Stingley Jr. Cross, Williams, Davis, Burks Devonte WyattDean, Todd McShay and others could all be first round locks. However, McShay said Monday that Dean may fall out of the first. Still, there are nine players. To get the over, all nine must land plus two Green and Corral players. Lewis CineOr Kaiir ElamThese are the long shots. Although the Predictor is more likely to bet than not, two will not be given by the SEC.
Another favorite is Under 16.5 offensive player selected in round one (-115). Although there are many possible scenarios, it is impossible to test every one. That’s why I trust the model. The Predictor is extremely confident (83%) that this will happen. We are probably underestimating QBs in this situation, as well as teams’ desire for trades back into the first to get one late and land the fifth-year option. Even though I admit it, I believe that under is the right side.
The last one, a favourite: Breece hall to be the first running back
Do you have a favorite prop that isn’t mentioned?
Fortenbaugh:It is best to shop around. However, if you find the over/under for Pac-12 player selected in the first round at 4, I recommend the over. This is because it is a freeroll. Thibodeaux, McDuffie and McDuffie were the linebackers from Utah. Devin LloydThey should all hear their names called Thursday. This gives us an edge in the worst-case scenario. Washington CB Kyler GordonIf you can get into the first round, you are a winner.
Walder: Houston DT Logan HallMore than 37.5 (-115). This is the one where the Predictor — which is based upon mock drafts, team requirements and Scouts Inc. grades (“Hall’s Scouts Inc. rank ranks 40th”) — doesn’t work out. The Draft Day PredictorHall’s median selection rank is No. 53. His range starts at the second round’s top, so an under is possible. But keep in mind that every year, there are players who suddenly drop out of the first. They are the most desirable options at the end of the second.