2022 NFL draft — Betting strategies for top prospects at every position

The NFL draft 2022 has quickly become a gambling holiday for football enthusiasts during the offseason. Although this year's draft is expected to be the most unpredictable, if you manage your cards well, you can make a nice profit.

It is a year in which nothing is certain. There are many questions as to the value of one the biggest sporting events of the year.

Our betting experts can help you make the right wagering decisions before Thursday night.

Caesars Sportsbook provides all odds

Aidan HutchinsonWas the odds-on favorite for No. From Monday to Monday. Are you looking for the smartest bet? Travon WalkerOr another player to be first off the board?

Moody: Although the odds of Hutchinson being drafted at the top have changed, I still prefer Hutchinson. It is hard to imagine Walker or Hutchinson being drafted as the top pick. The Jaguars want to improve their pass rush. They had 32 sacks last year, which was tied for fifth in the NFL. Hutchinson, who is a Heisman finalist and the more experienced college player, is Walker. Walker, however has all the potential to be a top pass rusher but did not play on the edge for Georgia. There are reports that there is an internal fight over the No. Jaguars owner Shad Kan will still get his pick.

Fulghum:Hutchinson is not the smartest bet to win No. In my eyes, he is No. 1. He is ranked 10th on mine, but I am not an NFL GM so you can take it as it is. His Michigan experience is only one. Although he passed his tests well, he is lacking some of the key traits you look for in a defensive end (armlength and flexibility being the most important). Walker Kayvon ThibodeauxDue to elite measurables as well as better production, both are better prospects in the same position. Walker is now the odds-on favorite for the No. 1 spot. #1 overall pick.

Marks:Hutchinson's arm length is the biggest problem. He measures 32.13 inches compared to Thibodeaux’s 34-inch arms and Travon Walker’s 35.50 inches arms. Even with a strong motor, few NFL pass-rushers are able to use their short arms. Walker's physical attributes allow him to have a higher ceiling than Bruce Smith. Jadeveon Clowney. Walker is expected to finish No. 1 overall.

What's your betting strategy for this year’s QB class

Fortenbaugh:I am taking Desmond RidderMore than 28.5 (-135) Ridder is a winner, and a great person in the culture. Ridder's problem is his accuracy and arm strength, which are essential skills for success as an NFL quarterback. We get sucked into the belief that quarterbacks are valuable, and that first-round picks have a fifth year option, so many quarterbacks will be chosen in the first round. This QB class is very weak so I won't be subscribing.

Moody: Two approaches are available to me. First, you should consider Kenny Pickett under 12.5 (+140). It is highly probable that the Panthers will pick a quarterback with No. After failing to acquire any high-end options via trades, the Panthers will likely select the No. 6 pick. Pickett is the most ready QB prospect this class and Matt Rhule could be on the hotseat. Pickett ended his career as the school’s all-time leader for passing yards (12.303), completions (1.045), total offense (13.112), and passing touchdowns (81). Pickett is 6-foot-3 and has mobility. Rhule is familiar with Pickett, and there are no top-ranked quarterback prospects in this class.

Second, you can go with less than 3.0 quarterbacks who were drafted in Round 1 (0-110). Pickett and Malik WillisThere are locks but I cannot see how Ridder and Matt CorralYou could sneak in.

Marks: These quarterbacks are not worthy of being drafted in the first round. This is one of the worst draft classes for QBs we've seen in a while. Given the depth at various positions, I wouldn't be surprised if there are no QBs selected in the first round. The under is 3.5.

Kezirian:Anita's thoughts are my own. Although there are always risks that a general manager will feel pressure, if they have to, they won't waste their precious first-round picks on a guy not affiliated with the franchise. I would play Pickett over 12.5 (+-175), Willis over 9.5 (-200). I don't believe Carolina will take a quarterback with the No. 6 pick, and the Panthers have no other pick until the fourth round. They cannot afford to trade on a player who has made an impact for a quarterback with huge unknowns. If the first QB is drafted, I would not recommend this. There are simply too many moving pieces. I don’t see an edge.

There have not been many teams that run back with their top pick. Do you think the top pick will be the first to leave the board on Thursday? Or are we still waiting for Friday?

Moody: Friday. Over the past 20 years, only 2.1 runningbacks have been chosen in the first round. Although the 2022 class isn’t the best at finding an all-down back, there are many prospects with specific skills that can help NFL teams. Breece HallThis is the first runningback to be selected as No. 37 in Mel Kiper Jr. & Todd McShay's latest mock draft.

Marks: This is also a weak RB category. The past has proven that teams can find the diamonds in rough in later rounds. There is too much talent elsewhere to choose a complimentary RB in round 1. Kenneth Walker IIIHe should be the first RB chosen, but I expect him to go in the second round.

Walder:Friday is Friday for two reasons. First, there is the Draft Day PredictorHe believes there is only 16% chance Hall, the top-ranked back in the class, will be selected in the first round. Although some people speculate that the Bills could select Hall at 25, it does not make sense for me that they would choose a runningback in the first round. Buffalo is a highly analytical organization. They have eschew running backs in the running field in favor of using QB runs and passing. It would be counterproductive to their strategy to invest heavily in the least-efficient part of their offense.

In addition to TE Kyle Pitts, five WRs were eliminated from the board in last year's first round. What do you think are the best bets for the WR position in this year's draft?

Moody:To me, it's who will be picked first among large receivers. Garrett Wilson (+120), Jameson Williams(+200) Drake LondonCaesars currently rates (+200) as the favorite. McShay and Kiper Jr. have Wilson selected as the first receiver in mock drafts. I agree with them. The Falcons need help at receiver. Calvin RidleyHe was suspended for the remainder of the season. Wilson's frame, combine measurables, and Wilson's height are very similar to Ridley. Wilson is the wide receiver with the most versatility in this class who can make an immediate difference.

Kezirian: I honestly wouldn't want to play the WR pros. The top players have a wide range of skills and we don't know what teams are thinking. It's my personal preference. I want to win every draft, or at the very least have insane value with long-shot chances. Tyler's comments are clear, but I lean towards 36.5 for. George PickensBecause of his uncertain injury history,

Marks: Wilson to be in the top 10 is a favorite prop bet. He is the best WR in the draft. He's a smooth runner and has excellent body control. But, most importantly, offensive coordinators can put him anywhere they like to create mismatches. Wilson is one the few NFL players capable of doing this. You shouldn't be surprised if he is taken by the Texans at No. While he is expected to be drafted No. 3, he will likely not beat the Falcons at 8.

What number of offensive linemen will you take in the first round (over/under 7.5)?

Moody:I lean towards the under. This class contains many outstanding offensive line prospects. Day 2 and 3 could be the day when we see some of the most promising prospects. Only the Houston Texans (Seahawks), New Orleans Saints and Seattle Seahawks are allowed to prioritize the offensive lines in Round 1.

Kezirian:This prop makes no sense. 7.5 is too high. The juice has now adjusted to -200. However, some shops have 6.5 which is much more accurate. The under is one my most strong plays at 7.5 even though it's -200. It was difficult to see eight drafts in the first round. We saw five drafts.

Fulghum:The UNDER has been a strong play for this OL prop. The price moved to a highly juiced -200 a few days prior to the draft. Tackles Ikem Ekwonu, Evan Neal, Charles Cross Trevor PenningBecause of their positional values, these locks seem like first-round lock. Iowa center Tyler LinderbaumWhile he is definitely a first-round talent his position does not get as much consideration. Similar could be said about guards like Kenyon Green (Texas A&M) and Zion Johnson (Boston College). Both are very good prospects. However, teams do not spend premium picks for guards unless they're Quenton Nelson. The remaining tackle prospects beyond the four already mentioned have enough question marks for the second round. Although I believe only six offensive linemen (Ekwonu. Cross. Penning. Linderbaum. Green.) will make it to the second round, there is still enough room for one more to get in and cash the under.

Walder:Below, but I am glad you were able get it back when the juice was only 130. This was the Draft Day PredictorIt was ranked as the strongest call one week ago and still considers that below is the right play at 200. There are only four first round OL locks: Cross, Cross, Penning, and Neal. Linderbaum and Johnson are all in the range of possible to likely. Tyler Smith Bernhard RaimannYou too have a chance. Here's the thing: They have no chance of being selected independently. You will need to simulate the draft in order to find out how they compare. Our model predicts that there is an 87% chance that the under will win.

Is there a player whose over/under is a favorite bet?

Fulghum: George PickensBelow 36.5 (-130), and LB Quay Walker under 38.5 (-115)These are the two I find most striking. Both SHOULD be selected in this draft's first round. Pickens is a true Xreceiver among this crop of wideout prospects. That skill set is so useful in today's NFL. Pickens is one of the most skilled receivers in the class, and can also block in the run. The only thing that he has to be unhappy about is his ACL injury from last season. But he was able to return to the College Football Playoff National Championship. If Jameson WilliamsPickens' knee isn't a concern for teams.

Walker is the right size to excel at the next level. Walker's teammate Nakobe Dean gets more attention, but scouts likely value Walker's measurables (6-foot-4, 241 pounds, 32⅝-inch arms, 4.52 40-yard dash) more for the next level, where length is becoming far more important for linebackers to match up with RBs and TEs simultaneously. It wouldn't surprise me if Walker is called in the second round, while Dean slips to the third.

Kezirian: Over 21.5 George Karlaftis. Karlaftis continues his slide on big boards, and could not even be a top-round pick. This prop opened on 14.5 and has steadily been over-bet. The oddsmakers didn't move it enough. Mel Kiper Jr., a podcast host, stated that Karlaftis is only possible at the 22nd selection.

Marks:To Doug's Karlaftis prediction I am thinking that I will bet a bottle of wine. He doesn't make it past the Eagles at 18 Scouts I have spoken to compare his upside with a T.J. WattI really like the under at 21. Sam HowellBelow 45.5 Treylon Burks under 23.5. Howell is the greatest QB in this class, and Burks the best slot WR. I'll take Chris OlaveOver 16.5 because his 32-inch vertical won't cut the mustard in the NFL. Trent McDuffieAnother favorite bet is the one below 17.5 McDuffie may end up being the greatest CB in this draft. He is great at covering, has great tackle skills and plays the ball well even at 5'11.

Walder:Cross over 7.5 is my favorite at +210. He could certainly go before then — Matt Miller, our colleague wrote last Tuesday“The buzz surrounding the Giants & Cross has been building since weeks”, but with all my plus-money, I'm playing the uncertainty card. There are many ways this could go wrong. Surprise non-Cross picks, Giants trading out to acquire 2023 picks or New York preferring another tackle. After we add Walker, Hutchinson and Thibodeaux, there isn't much left in the top seven. Ahmad GardnerThe two other top tackles are, and possibly a quarterback or someone similar to Derek Stingley Jr.

What are the best landing spots for budding fantasy stars within this draft class?

Moody: Hall would be a top-10 running back if drafted by Texans. His unique mix of creativity, power, and size will make him a regular in Houston. Hall is the fifth-best Iowa State player to rush more than 1,000 yards in multiple season, making him the ninth in Iowa State history.

Wilson will be well-positioned for success and have high fantasy ceiling if the Falcons choose him. The Falcons have 225 targets and 1,982 air yards available heading into the 2022 season.

Trey McBrideIf he plays for the Giants, he could be a TE1. McBride won college football's top tight end award last season. He would love to be on a team that allows him to shine. A Giants team is looking for replacements and has 206 targets available. Evan Engram.

Marks: Wilson will likely end up in Atlanta. His fantasy potential is huge because of the amount of money he will get. Green Bay has 22 and 28 selections in their first round. I think the Packers will use one on a WR. Williams, Burks and London Jahan DotsonBurks is my favourite of the group and could be on the board. It will be interesting to see if he goes to Green Bay. North Dakota State WR is another prospect worth keeping an eye on. Christian Watson . Scouts often compare him with Deebo Samuel.

What are the top ESPN props that we should be considering? Draft Day predictor?

Walder:Predictors love this prop. In the first round, less than 10.5 SEC members were selected (+120).. Walker, Neal Stingley Jr. Cross Williams Davis Davis Burks Devonte WyattDean, Todd McShay and others could all be first round locks. However, McShay said Monday that Dean may fall out of the first. That's still nine players. To get the over, all nine must land plus two Green and Corral players. Lewis CineOr Kaiir ElamThe last two are long shots and must be chosen. While the Predictor bets more often than others, the SEC will not get two of them.

The other favourite is Below 16.5 offensive players were selected in the first round (-115). Although there are many possible scenarios, it is impossible to test every one. That's why I trust the model. The Predictor is 83 percent confident, probably too confident, that this prediction will come true. I believe we are underestimating the QBs and the teams' desire to trade into the last to take one late and get that fifth-year option. Even though I admit it, I believe that under is the right side.

The last one, a favourite: Breece Hall will be the first to run back

Do you have a favorite prop that isn't mentioned?

Fortenbaugh:It is best to shop around. However, if you find the over/under for Pac-12 player selected in the first round at 4, I recommend the over. This is because it is a freeroll. Thibodeaux, McDuffie and McDuffie were the linebackers from Utah. Devin LloydAll should hear their names called on Thursday. We have a push in case of a worst-case situation. Washington CB Kyler GordonIf you can get into the first round, you are a winner.

Walder: Houston DT Logan HallOver 37.5 (-115). This is the one where the Predictor — based upon mock drafts, team requirements and Scouts Inc. grades Hall's Scouts Inc. rank of 40th — is not able to predict the outcome. The Draft Day PredictorHall is ranked No. 53. His range starts at round two, so an under is possible. But keep in mind, every year, there are players that unexpectedly drop out of the first. These are the most appealing options at the top end of the second.

Leave a Comment