When it is more and more argued, yr after yr, how unwise it’s to spend a first-round NFL draft decide on a working again, we as fantasy football managers generally develop irrational concern of spending such a lofty decide on a rookie again in our personal drafts.
However when a generational working again expertise like Bijan Robinson comes alongside, we have to simply make the leap.
You would possibly’ve observed we have ranked Robinson as a clear first-round fantasy football selection. It is a beneficiant valuation, however it’s not one dished out blindly contemplating his spectacular talent set, potential position and standing because the No. 8 general choice from this yr’s draft, the earliest a working again has been picked in 5 years and solely the eighth time previously 15 drafts {that a} working again was chosen among the many NFL draft’s prime 10 gamers.
Robinson brings probably the most full packages any rookie working again has had on the time of his NFL debut. In three seasons for the Texas Longhorns, he totaled 4,215 yards from scrimmage and 41 touchdowns, averaging 6.3 yards per rush. Professional Soccer Focus credited him with a single-season-record 104 missed tackles compelled in 2022. Robinson has all of it: measurement, velocity, agility, elite chops within the receiving sport and he is super at making fast cuts on runs. The Atlanta Falcons chosen him with the clear intent of creating him their beginning, every-down working again from day one, whatever the presence of Tyler Allgeier. You do not make a draft decide funding like this after which restrict the participant’s alternative.
Much more encouraging, historical past helps Robinson’s first-round fantasy candidacy and totally backs his probability to make that stage of an impression.
Prior to now 10 seasons, seven working backs have been chosen within the first spherical of the NFL draft and the primary 35 picks (and first 15 working backs) on common in ESPN fantasy drafts throughout their rookie seasons. These standards have been fastidiously chosen to reflect Robinson’s path getting into 2023 — that of extremely touted prospects who have been drafted by a crew that instantly gave them the chance to guide its backfield.
5 of those seven working backs delivered a fantasy level whole that ranked larger on the place than their ADP rating. The group was chosen ninth on common amongst working backs (9.4, to be actual) and completed tenth on common (9.7) in fantasy factors scored. Three of them, Saquon Barkley (385.8) in 2018, Ezekiel Elliott (325.4) in 2016 and Najee Harris (300.7) in 2021, exceeded the 300-point threshold, one which has been reached by solely 14 rookie working backs in historical past and is usually regarded the benchmark for “elite” positional standing. Moreover, 4 of those six rookies totaled greater than 300 touches as rookies, with the group averaging 296.7, additional backing up their leading-man standing.
Right here is the complete group:
Barkley and Elliott have been equally heralded first-round picks, every going sixth general within the NFL draft, and each function excellent comparability factors for Robinson. Barkley, the truth is, may be the perfect comp, significantly when it comes to receiving capability, and it is essential to level out that some scouts hailed Robinson both nearly as good as or doubtlessly a fair higher prospect on the time of their picks.
Fantasy managers may be hesitant to put money into Robinson after listening to Barkley’s identify as a reference level, recalling as an alternative his 2019-21 damage points, however it have to be harassed how phenomenal Barkley was as a rookie. Barkley completed solely 6.4 PPR fantasy factors shy of Eric Dickerson’s rookie file and his 385.8 factors from that season rank nineteenth amongst working backs in historical past. He managed 352 touches, a quantity Robinson may actually attain, and he did so for a 5-11 New York Giants crew that had Eli Manning enjoying in his remaining full season as a starter. The Giants’ below-average offense that season did not hamper Barkley’s fantasy prospects, simply because the 2023 Falcons’ offense should not be a lot of a hindrance to Robinson’s.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is essentially the most notable disappointment on the checklist. He bought off to a very good begin, scoring 19.8 PPR factors in Week 1 of 2020 and was eleventh amongst RBs in scoring by way of Week 6, solely to chill thereafter. His season could be minimize quick after 13 video games as a consequence of hip and ankle accidents. From a scouting standpoint, nevertheless, Edwards-Helaire was not the prospect that Robinson is, as he lacked Robinson’s measurement and confronted questions on his capability in short-yardage and goal-line conditions.
Josh Jacobs was hardly the letdown that it might sound from a fast look on the chart. A shoulder damage minimize his rookie season quick by three video games, however by way of 15 weeks of that season, he was twelfth in fantasy factors amongst working backs, proper on tempo to be worthwhile. Jacobs additionally entered the NFL not fairly as extremely considered Robinson is, nor was he drafted in fantasy as early as Robinson might be.
Robinson would possibly, the truth is, be headed for the best ADP by any rookie working again this century, beating Barkley’s and Ezekiel Elliott‘s No. 6 general. It isn’t an absurd notion to pick him among the many prime 5 picks, contemplating the opposite names from inside that group embody a pair of gamers with damage histories (Christian McCaffrey and Barkley) and one coming off a disappointing, additionally injury-affected 2022 (Jonathan Taylor). In an period the place most any first-round working again comes with some danger, Robinson as a model new participant isn’t any better danger than that of any of his positional brethren.
So when you’re nonetheless sweating the prospect of spending that vital first-round decide on Robinson, having heard all that chatter on the NFL stage … do not! Historical past — together with Robinson’s talent set and potential position — actually helps his worth.