Week 17 of the NFL season wraps up Monday night time with the Cincinnati Bengals internet hosting the Buffalo Bills (-1, 49.5) at Paycor Stadium (ESPN, 8:30 ET).
After an thrilling vacation weekend of motion, we’ve got yet one more alternative this week to wager on skilled soccer. So which performs do our analysts like probably the most?
Betting analysts Joe Fortenbaugh, Erin Dolan and Anita Marks, fantasy and sports activities betting analyst André Snellings, ESPN Stats & Info’s Seth Walder and Soccer Outsiders’ Aaron Schatz supply their insights into the video games with ideas and picks.
Be aware: Strains from Caesars Sportsbook until in any other case indicated.
Buffalo Bills (-1, 49.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET, at Paycor Stadium
The Payments and Bengals face off on Monday in a extremely anticipated matchup of two groups battling for the AFC’s No. 1 seed. The Payments (+165 to win AFC) have already clinched the AFC East and are on a six-game profitable streak whereas the Bengals (+400 to win AFC) have received seven straight video games themselves and are within the midst of an historic ATS run. Who do you wish to win this one and what are your ideas on every staff’s probabilities to take the convention crown?
Fortenbaugh: I’ve gone forwards and backwards on this recreation, so preserve that in thoughts. As of now, I’ve a “beer cash” wager on Buffalo. The swing issue is Cincinnati’s offensive line, which has surrendered 42 sacks thus far this season (eighth-most within the NFL) and shall be with out OT La’el Collins, who was misplaced for the season on account of a torn ACL. Buffalo can generate constant strain with its entrance 4 and may have the ability to disrupt Cincinnati’s offensive rhythm. However, like I discussed earlier, that is an motion wager as a result of I am not sitting out the largest recreation of the yr.
Schatz: These are two very robust, well-rounded groups, however I favor the Payments somewhat bit as a result of they are a bit extra well-rounded. Buffalo continues to be No. 1 in Soccer Outsiders’ DVOA scores for the season and No. 2 in our weighted scores that give extra energy to latest video games. The Bengals are barely forward of Buffalo in weighted offense. The distinction there may be all of the working recreation, because the passing video games are equal. Nonetheless, the Payments are considerably forward in weighted protection, the place they rank sixth in comparison with fifteenth for the Bengals. I believe that the present odds for these groups to win the AFC are very correct as our simulation has each staff’s probabilities at lower than 1% distinction from the Vegas line. There is not any worth on both line, actually.
Snellings: I am going to go along with the Bengals for the sport and +400 to win the AFC. I have been constant for the reason that preseason that I preferred the Bengals to repeat as AFC North champion and that when all the things got here collectively they need to be higher than final season’s AFC championship staff. They’ve handled quite a lot of accidents all season and the harm to Collins is big, as was the lack of prime cornerback Chidobe Awuzie in early November.
Nonetheless, the staff has discovered methods to beat accidents to everybody besides Joe Burrow. When Burrow was slowed after appendix surgical procedure to start out the season, the staff seemed solely completely different and went 0-2. With him on the sphere at full energy, they have been just about unbeatable. Because the Bengals’ huge receivers, working backs and cross rushers all get more healthy, I believe they are going to have all the things they should struggle off the Payments on Monday and make one other deep post-season run.
Dolan: It is easy. Go along with the Bengals cash line. Burrow has been very adaptable this season, which has helped enhance his recreation from final season’s efforts. Burrow is now releasing the ball on the second-highest charge of his profession, which has resulted in his being each pressured and sacked at career-low charges. He has been throwing deep much less typically in order that defenses do not play two excessive safeties. He has been keen to run, setting profession highs in rushes, dashing yards, and dashing touchdowns this season. Burrow and this offense have clicked at simply the correct time.
On the opposite facet of the ball, the Payments could also be on a six-game profitable streak, however they’ve overwhelmed mediocre competitors — the Browns, Lions, Patriots, Jets, Dolphins, and Bears — in comparison with what the Bengals have confronted over that very same stretch. Cincinnati is a large step up in competitors for the Payments. The Bengals will win outright at residence.
Marks: Give me the Large Cats with the factors! The Bengals has been the higher staff as of late, whereas the Payments have been sleepwalking by way of groups just like the Bears, Jets and Lions. The Bengals have lined seven straight video games, and Burrow has tossed 25 TD passes over his final 10 video games. Defensively, they’re holding quarterbacks, on common, to a 50% completion share.
Walder: Give me the Payments. Allen’s 2022 efficiency has been weirdly underrated. He ranks second in QBR and factors above common and could be second on my hypothetical MVP poll. That places him a notch above Burrow, even nearly as good because the Bengals QB has been. What actually strikes me on this recreation (as Fortenbaugh additionally famous) is that the Cincinnati offensive line, regardless of being barely higher within the second half of the yr, nonetheless ranks thirtieth in pass-block win charge for the yr.
Burrow and Josh Allen have been two of the NFL’s finest quarterbacks this season. Burrow has the second-most passing yards this yr (4,260) behind solely MVP-favorite Patrick Mahomes. Allen ranks sixth with 4,029 yards. Burrow’s passing prop is 282.5 yards, whereas Allen’s is 251.5 yards. Each quarterbacks have a TD prop of 1.5. How do you see these star quarterbacks acting on Monday night time?
Fortenbaugh: I might wager over 251.5 on Allen. Buffalo ranks eighth within the NFL in passing makes an attempt per recreation and Cincinnati’s cross protection is nothing to write down residence about. They are not terrible, however they don’t seem to be elite, both.
Schatz: As a result of the Payments’ cross protection is so robust, I might go along with beneath 282.5 on Burrow. The Payments are seventh in cross protection DVOA, and that improves to fifth if you happen to take away sacks and throwaways. Our projections estimate that Burrow has a 64% probability of falling in need of this complete.
Snellings: I might go over for each in passing yards as a result of I count on this recreation to be a battle — and each quarterbacks have the flexibility to cross in opposition to any protection. We have seen each Mahomes and Kirk Cousins throw for effectively over 300 yards on the Payments, and Tom Brady did the identical to the Bengals a few weeks in the past. I search for each quarterbacks to place huge numbers on the board on Monday, as a result of I believe that is what it can take for his or her groups to have an opportunity to win.
Is there anything you want or are enjoying on this matchup?
Fortenbaugh: I am going to go along with Burrow to throw an interception (-129). He is already thrown a dozen of them on the season, with 4 coming over his final three video games. Plus, he shall be with out Collins whereas going through a constant cross rush and a stable cross protection. That is a recipe for a minimum of one choose.
Schatz: I might favor going with Tee Higgins at beneath 68.5 receiving yards. The Payments have a weak spot protecting the opposition’s No. 1 huge receiver (twenty sixth in DVOA) however are robust in opposition to different receivers. Opposing No. 2 receivers common simply 39.3 yards in opposition to the Payments (as soon as we regulate for the energy of the opponents). If somebody goes to feast on Buffalo’s corners, it’s more likely to be Ja’Marr Chase. We estimate a 67% probability that Higgins goes beneath this receiving complete.
Snellings: I like Allen over 48.5 dashing yards. Allen and his former school teammate, Bengals linebacker Logan Wilson, have each been speaking about how excited they’re to see one another on the sphere in an actual recreation. The Bengals additionally are likely to have some vulnerability in opposition to cell quarterbacks, together with Lamar Jackson dashing for 58 yards in opposition to them earlier this season.
I additionally like Chase to attain a landing (-106). He is scored six touchdowns over his final six video games, with a minimum of one rating in 4 of these six, and he tends to point out up in huge video games. As beforehand identified, the Payments have some weaknesses in opposition to opposing No. 1 huge receivers. Plus, Chase is coming off a recreation the place he not solely did not rating, however he additionally fumbled away a ball that was returned for a landing. He tends to bounce-back effectively from his errors.
Marks: I am with André in taking Allen for over 48.5 dashing yards. I can even play the over in dashing makes an attempt as Allen is simply seven carries and 17 yards away from breaking his private single-season file.