The wild-card spherical concludes Monday evening with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers internet hosting the Dallas Cowboys (-2.5, 45.5) at Raymond James Stadium on ESPN/ABC/ESPN+.
Tom Brady is undefeated towards the Cowboys in his profession (7-0). And Dallas, whereas favored, hasn’t gained on the highway within the playoffs since 1993.
So what’s value taking a look at from a betting perspective? And what are the most effective performs that can assist you make sensible wagering selections?
Betting analysts Doug Kezirian, Tyler Fulghum, Joe Fortenbaugh, Anita Marks and Erin Dolan, fantasy and sports activities betting analysts Eric Moody and Andre Snellings, ESPN Stats & Data’s Seth Walder and Soccer Outsiders’ Aaron Schatz provide their insights into the video games with suggestions and picks.
Be aware: Traces are from Caesars Sportsbook except in any other case indicated.
Within the ESPN/ABC/ESPN+ ‘Monday Evening Soccer’ wild-card matchup, the Dallas Cowboys (-2.5, 45.5) are the favourite on the highway towards Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs dominated and gained 19-3 in Week 1, however these are completely different groups now. Are you taking Brady and the factors or laying with the Cowboys?
Kezirian: I’m taking beneath 45.5. Whereas the Cowboys protection has regressed a bit over the previous few weeks, it nonetheless ranks within the prime eight in effectivity, and the Bucs rank even increased. Tampa can be nonetheless preventing accidents on the offensive line, which can restrict Brady’s effectiveness. As well as, I like utilizing the Bucs +8.5 as a teaser leg. I don’t anticipate Dallas blowing out Tampa, and the Bucs also can win outright.
Schatz: I’ll take the Cowboys -2.5 on this one, given all the issues the Buccaneers have had within the second half of the season. The Cowboys completed the 12 months sixth in Soccer Outsiders’ DVOA rankings, whereas Tampa Bay completed seventeenth. We all know the Dallas go protection has not been pretty much as good in current weeks, however the Tampa Bay go protection has declined much more than the Cowboys. Within the first half of the season, Dallas ranked third in go protection DVOA and Tampa Bay was sixth. Within the second half of the season, Dallas ranked simply 18th, however Tampa Bay is all the way in which all the way down to twenty eighth. Additionally, in that Week 1 sport, the Buccaneers ran everywhere in the Cowboys, after which their working sport utterly shut down for the remainder of the 12 months. I’d not count on Tampa to have a lot success on the bottom on this contest.
Walder: I will take the beneath at 45.5. I am apprehensive about each offensive traces on this sport, significantly the acute Micah Parsons vs. Donovan Smith mismatch. The Bucs have been a below-average offense all 12 months, anyway. And whereas I assume Dak Prescott‘s extraordinarily poor Week 18 sport was a one-off — if it isn’t, I will get the advantage of that right here too.
Snellings: I will additionally give the factors and take the Cowboys. The narrative of Brady because the postseason hero is a strong one, however we have seen the Bucs play extraordinarily mediocre for months now. If not for Brady heroics, they’d be a well-below .500 workforce. The Cowboys, even factoring in current struggles, are a really sturdy workforce. And the management is veteran and playoff-tested. They need to handle enterprise.
Marks: I just like the Bucs at dwelling. The Cowboys have regarded horrible of late. They have been in a position to muster solely 182 whole yards and 6 factors towards the Commanders final week, and Dak retains throwing the ball to his opponents (15 interceptions in 12 video games). The Cowboys protection has given up 27-plus factors per sport to Gardner Minshew, Joshua Dobbs and Sam Howell. What do you assume Brady has in retailer? The Bucs protection is more healthy, and Dallas ought to have a tough time dashing the ball.
Moody: Despite the fact that Tampa Bay has underachieved all season, I am taking the Buccaneers and the factors at dwelling. Brady has a substantial amount of postseason expertise and is aware of what it takes to win. For the reason that Cowboys’ secondary has actually struggled towards the top of the season, Tampa Bay must get Mike Evans and Chris Godwin concerned early. Despite the fact that the Buccaneers defeated Dallas in Week 1, they’re solely 2-7-1 towards the unfold of their previous 10 dwelling video games. With Prescott’s current struggles and the Buccaneers’ protection bettering now that it’s wholesome, it will be stunning to see his efficiency change on the highway. The Buccaneers are able to win this sport outright.
Tom Brady is enjoying in his forty eighth profession playoff sport and has averaged 276.1 passing yards per sport within the common season. He has additionally thrown a minimum of one landing go in 16 of his previous 17 video games and thrown a number of TD passes six instances. His passing props for Monday evening are 273.5 yards and 1.5 TDs. Do you see him going over or beneath these totals?
Schatz: I am comfy going with the over on Brady’s passing yardage on this sport as a result of neither go protection has been sturdy up to now few weeks. Dallas has nonetheless been the stronger offense, although, which suggests Brady is extra prone to be passing loads within the second half to attempt to make up a deficit.
Walder: I will go beneath (however store round, as a result of there are increased traces than this) right here as properly for a similar purpose I said above: the Dallas go rush towards the Bucs offensive line. I believe that is going to drive Brady to get the ball out of his arms rapidly for brief passes and in addition encourage OC Byron Leftwich to run the ball. Each work within the unders’ favor.
Snellings: I will take a aspect door and take Brady over 42.5 go makes an attempt. Earlier than his shortened look within the season finale, Brady had a minimum of 43 go makes an attempt in six straight video games with a median of 48.2 makes an attempt per sport throughout that stretch.
Moody: I am very optimistic about Brady surpassing 273.5 passing yards. He has surpassed 273.5 passing yards in 77.8% of his video games this season. Brady leads the league with 490 completions and 733 makes an attempt. As well as, he has a robust file towards the Cowboys in his profession. Brady is 7-0 towards them and averages 277.8 passing yards per sport.
Dak Prescott’s passing prop is 246.5 yards, eight yards greater than his season common of 238.3 yards per sport. He has thrown over his passing prop in eight of 11 video games this season. Do you see him going over once more on Monday evening?
Moody: There’s a sturdy probability Prescott surpasses 246.5 passing yards. Prescott has surpassed that quantity in 4 consecutive video games previous to the Cowboys’ sport towards the Commanders in Week 18. Prescott has averaged 257.1 passing yards per sport in his profession. On the wild-card slate, this prop is a pleasant worth.
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What’s your favourite participant prop for Cowboys vs. Buccaneers?
Schatz: Tampa Bay ranks twenty fourth in DVOA towards tight ends, so let’s take Dalton Schultz over 39.5 receiving yards (-117). Schultz had 62 yards within the first assembly between these groups again in Week 1.
Marks: Dak has 15 INTs in 12 video games, so what’s yet one more? Give me Prescott tossing a decide at -175.
Moody: My favourite prop on this sport is Mike Evans over 63.5 receiving yards. The Buccaneers could be smart to maneuver him round to get the most effective matchups. Evans expects to face All-Professional cornerback Trevon Diggs, who tends to line up on the fitting aspect of the protection a excessive share of the time. This season, Evans has averaged 8.8 targets and 93.8 receiving yards at dwelling. He’ll be busy towards the Cowboys.
What’s your favourite greatest wager for Monday evening?
Fortenbaugh: Underneath 45.5 factors. Tampa ranks twenty fifth in scoring and has recorded 30 or extra factors in simply two of 17 video games this season. That is a comparatively low offensive ceiling, particularly when you think about the Dallas go rush taking over this depleted Buccaneers offensive line. On the opposite aspect, I do not belief turnover machine Dak Prescott and the Dallas offense to maneuver the ball with consistency towards a stable Tampa protection. This sport needs to be a grind.
Marks: Tony Pollard over 47.5 dashing yards (-115). Groups discover success dashing the soccer across the exterior of the Bucs defensive position (103 exterior carries have averaged 5.4 yards per carry towards Tampa). That’s Pollard’s wheelhouse, extra so than Ezekiel Elliott. If the Cowboys are going to search out success of their dashing sport, will probably be with Pollard over Zeke.