“For every act, there is a equal and opposite reaction.”
The Newtonian edict may have caused me to fall asleep in eighth-grade science. Sir Issac, however, reanimates my frontal lobe and shakes it with perspective-setting regularity every time I pass the quarter pole in a fantasy NBA campaign.
The guy under the apple tree is reminding me that there’s a cold start for every warm start. Every start is a new beginning. Lauri Markkanen (12th on The Player Rater). Damian Lillard (125th).
The player pool, which is roughly the top 150 players on the Player Rater, should be viewed as a market. A market that offers limited fantasy value. On average, the player pool hovers around 2000 Player Rating points.
It’s both an additive and subtractive pool. Unexpected rises in one player can cause another player to fall. There are always opposite reactions to valuation in a fantasy basketball season.
The NBA Commissioner Adam Silver may add a 4-point shot to celebrate President’s Day, but there won’t be any sudden increase in the player pool’s production. The ABA won’t be walking in that door.
Consider a season-altering trade and the finite value principle applies.
It is part of our trade vocabulary: we aim to trade players away at their highest fantasy value and add players at their lowest fantasy values. We also avoid the reverse side of the trade dynamic. We want to win trades. Our team must be able to take advantage of other teams’ value.
However, there’s a big difference between winning a trade and letting everyone know that you won one. This is how you are labeled “shark”. And no one wants to do business with loud and proud sharks. Managers who fail conceal their dorsal Fin should be avoided.
One or two managers you may know are known for making unfavorable deals for their own benefit. It’s always a mystery to me why managers continue to work with historical sharks. A one-sided deal is bad for the whole league. They slow down vigorous free-market dork competition.
These types of one-sided deals will invariably reduce a league’s trading market. Because it was an unattainable standard for rational traders to follow in the trade markets.
There is a mark for every shark. Manager sharks that are constantly confused circle when they have to procure more production. Hot takes are pursued by the manager. A manager who always trades for the highest-value players and then gives them away at their lowest. Always. ALWAYS.
Are you feeling confused after Thanksgiving tryptophan? Have no fear. This author will help you to find the best fantasy values from the top-name stars.
Nikola Jokic, C, Denver Nuggets
It’s likely too late to add the “slow-starter sticker” to The Joker. What about the upside? Jokic is technically the most qualified candidate for any league.
It’s still a bit obvious. However, I am here to clarify a few points.
First: Failure is relative. It is relative to the expectations of the player and also relative to the time.
Jokic currently ranks No. 7. Overall, the season’s Player Rater is 7. It’s not bad for a player who dominated all fantasy preseason rankings. Yes, it was a little disappointing so far. If a player has No. 7th is the highest of all expectations. Jokic is at the top of this list by definition.
This type of trade is dependent on the time. Timing is crucial in trades. Managers with less experience may not see the whole season in its entirety. Or worse, as per-game production.
You need to take into account the windows of time when you load up an offer. Statistics snapshots.
The last 7 days. The last 15 calendar days. Even for a month. The manager that controls the player is affected by recent events, even if they don’t know it. Although it’s not as obvious as panic in fantasy football or fantasy basketball, managerial panic is still present in fantasy basketball.
The fear of losing value in return for struggling players… before they possibly bottom out? This fear is what causes panic. This is the thing you should capitalize on, no matter how painful it may be to write.
Jokic’s manager made a large investment in Jokic’s services. Jokic has had a disappointing ROI to date. Find the moments when everything seems to be falling apart for a particular player, and then jump.
Do you remember two weeks ago? Jokic was looking at the one-week window. It was an oddly insatiable 8-point night with 14 assists… then COVID took three games away. OMG, I’m burning karma points to tell this, but these are the windows of trade opportunities.
Because… (eyes shutting, blurting in one hushed) Short-term injuries or illnesses are the best time to offer a trade.
CJ McCollum, PG/SG, New Orleans Pelicans
Now you should be able recognise the dynamics. McCollum was deep in Marianas-Trench’s shooting slump. He was then ill and had to be taken out. He then entered the COVID protocols. This is a smorgasbord of subtractive reactions… McCollum was losing value in a short-term window.
There’s an additional metric you can use to judge the value of an offer. It is the usage rate. McCollum’s usage rate was increasing, even though he couldn’t reach the broadside of the barn with his jumper. McCollum subtly diversified his fantasy portfolio over the years so that his value does not live or die with his shot.
McCollum was traded from New Orleans to McCollum. He kinda went full-blown Dejounte Murray. Meaning: He leads by stats. He will show his teammates, coaches, and non-panicky fantasy mangers how to produce, regardless if the field goal percentage is high or low.
Dejounte Murray, PG/SG, Atlanta Hawks
What about points leagues? Murray is a mild disappointment. He only managed two rounds that were below his ADP. Murray’s efficiency is still impressive, but in less obvious ways. In roto formats, he’s just a few rounds below ADP.
This opens up the possibility for smart managers to make a deal.
Volume can fluctuate. Streaky shooters are possible. Murray, a pro at efficiency, knows how to feed his PER even when he misses. Murray has a 41.3 Fg% over the last 15 days. Murray’s 15-game snapshot shows that Murray has “only” 18.7 PTS, 4.29 AST, 4.9 ReB, 4.9 REB and 1.6 STL. Murray can still manage to stay calm, even when his shot goes wrong. His rebounding and defense as well as the fact that most of Murray’s shots are taken from downtown.
Look at how they shoot when evaluating this player. What percentage of their field goal attempts were 3s? It could be that they are not taking the right types of shots, but they don’t fall in a short time. This is a sign that there’s an opportunity to trade.