Welcome to the Corridor of Fame Poll as created by Stephen King and George R.R. Martin and Beelzebub. It’s the final look at the Baseball Writers’ Affiliation of America survey for Barry Bonds Roger Clemens Sammy Sosa Curt Schilling and Sammy Sosa — and the primary vote for Alex Rodriguez and David Ortiz. Many intriguing holdovers are still looking for enshrinement. Gary Sheffield and Manny Ramirez are both still around — as well as new interesting candidates.
With the ballots officially distributed on MondayLet’s now take a look at some of the most important points for the election in 2022. Here are some key tips:
-
Voters have the option to vote for up to 10 gamers.
-
Gamers want 75% to be elected — no rounding; 74.9% won’t get them in.
-
Gamers expect a minimum of 5% to remain on the poll.
-
Ballots should be posted by Dec. 31 to receive results on Jan. 25,
Last year, Schilling was in the lead among all gamers with 71.8%. This was the first time that the BBWAA had thrown a shutout since 2013, and the fourth time since 1966. The BBWAA has elected 21 gamers in seven years, a remarkable feat considering historical requirements. The PED-induced poll jam that had clogged the poll for some time and made it more difficult to get elected has been mostly eliminated. This has assisted previously borderline candidates like Tim Raines and Edgar Martinez recently, and will aid a few candidates this yr transfer closer to election.
The Corridor of Fame dialogue will be centered on three PED-stained alltime greats as well as one on-field player with various off the field controversies.
Okay, so that’s it for Bonds Clemens Schilling. Which of them is allowed in?
The answer seems quite obvious for Bonds and Clemens: No. Clemens got one less vote, while Bonds received 61.8%. Clemens will get 54 votes, while Bonds will pick up 53 votes if there are 401 ballots. Clemens had 61%, Bonds at 60.7% and Bonds at 61% respectively in 2020. The 2021 vote totals have barely risen since 2018. Although they may receive some sympathy votes in the final ballot, it appears that they have reached their maximum level of support from the writers.
Schilling would normally be able to depend on the final-year surge to get in. Look at what happened to Walker, Martinez, and Raines during their tenth, and final appearances. Walker, 54.6% – 76.6%; Martinez – 70.4% – 85.4%; Raines. 69.8% – 86.0%
Schilling is seeking a fraction of what these gamers have — he was only 16 votes short. It will be difficult to verify too many “let’s get him over that hump” votes from writers who are not yet voting for him.
His on-field performance has been greatly underrated by voters, I have always felt. He’s very comparable to John Smoltz. Schilling received only 38.8% in his first poll.
Schilling: 216-146. 3.46 ERA. 127 ERA+. 3261 SO. 3116 SO. 80.5 War.
Smoltz: 213 – 155, 3.33 ERA+. 125 ERA+. 347 IP. 3084 SO. 66.4 War.
Their postseason record was also impressive, with them being the 2 greatest beginning pitchers in their respective periods. Smoltz won a Cy Younger Award, Schilling finished second thrice. However, it was not logical that Smoltz bought into the team so easily. Schilling faced an uphill battle even before he became a conspiracy theorist and Twitter troll.
His chances of being elected are now hampered by social media scandals. The most recent one was after last year’s election, when Schilling tweeted support for the U.S. Capitol Rioters. Schilling sent a letter to Corridor of Fame asking them to remove him from the poll after he was unsuccessfully elected in 2021.
“I am unable to participate in the final yr of voting. I am asking to be removed from the poll. Schilling wrote, “I am going to defer the veterans committee and males. Their opinions really matter and they’re able determine if a participant.” Schilling’s request for a Corridor of Fame award was unanimously rejected by its board of administrators.
My best guess: Schilling is not as successful with roughly the identical percentage as in the previous yr.
How will Alex Rodriguez perform?
A-Rod is, without doubt, one of 20 most important gamers (Bonds fourth in professionWAR, Clemens eighth, Rodriguez sixteenth), but his case has a stronger foundation in PEDs. His involvement in the Biogenesis scandal resulted in him being suspended for the 2014 season. Perhaps he will be seen similarly to Bonds and Clemens with plain Corridor of Fame stats. He is available at around 60% of all votes. It’s also possible that he finishes close to Manny Ramirez, who has 28.2% in 2021. This is his fifth year on this poll. (He bought 24% in his initial year). Ramirez was also suspended in 2004, after PED testing began. Rodriguez was a much better participant all around than Ramirez so he’ll most likely be available greater than 28%. However, the lack of support for Ramirez suggests that the BBWAA will not ever elect Rodriguez unless something drastically changes.
Ok, David Ortiz?
Yes, PEDs are not the only thing we can talk about. The New York Occasions reported 2009 that Ortiz had been optimistic in the preliminary survey testing in 2003. At that time, there was no penalty. Ortiz strongly denied the report. Commissioner Rob Manfred, however, appeared to exonerate Ortiz during Ortiz’s final season. He instructed reporters that the records of optimistic exams from survey outcomes included names that “the place where we knew that there were legit scientific questions on the validity of these positives.” (Hmm.)
Ortiz has not been accused of failing any PED checks, although a cloud of suspicion hangs over his head. However many gamers were believed to have used PEDs, Ortiz was not elected to the Corridor of Fame. He did not reveal any holy information, unlike Bonds and Clemens.
Ortiz is more famous for his larger than life persona and his clutch hitting in the postseason, rather than his statistical achievements. His profession WAR of 55.3 doesn’t seem like a Corridor of Fame slam dunk. Martinez, another participant, was at 68.4 while he took 10 years to be elected. Martinez has a lower count (541 residence runs, 1,768 RBIs), while Ortiz actually has higher numbers (including Ortiz’s playoff heroics). Few gamers have had the same impact on the game as Ortiz, and that makes him a clear winner in the “He seems to be a Corridor of Famer.” class. BBWAA still hasn’t elected a non-reliever to office with a lower profession WAR than Jim Rice (47.7). Despite the low WAR, PED cloud and standard bias in opposition first-year candidates closing it down, I believe Ortiz is going to get in.
Which candidate holds the best chance of being a holdover candidate?
Scott Rolen was fourth in the final year’s poll at 52.9%, just behind Bonds and Schilling. He is now on his fifth poll and is showing solid progress. Raines and Martinez had held a lower share of the stage than Walker and Walker. Remember that every participant who received 50% of the BBWAA vote, except Gil Hodges or the gamers still on the poll, was eventually elected to the Corridor of Fame through either the BBWAA (or a veterans committee). Rolen’s vote surges this year — not to 75%, but he could get to 60%, and that surges even more next yr, when Bonds Clemens Schilling, Clemens and Schilling are out of the poll. Voters LikeVote SomeThe poll will be a vote of confidence in the future.
Omar Vizquel?
Vizquel’s vote total dropped from 52.6% in 2020, to 49.1% in the final year. This could be due to Vizquel’s ex-wife posting an Instagram clip alleging home abuse. Vizquel was initially charged with fourth-degree home attack in 2016. Vizquel was accused of sexual harassment after he was alleged to have harassed a former batboy for the Birmingham Barons’ Double-A crew Vizquel managed in 2019. Vizquel was fired after the White Sox conducted an investigation and dismissed the accusations.
Vizquel’s Corridor of Fame case was already heated, relying only on his defensive wizardry (11 Gold Gloves), and longevity (he played the most games at shortstop in MLB history). His profession WAR of 45.6 fits nicely with the Corridor of Fame requirements. He also made just three All-Star groups in his career and was awarded MVP votes in one season (sixteenth in 1998). Vizquel’s candidacy for the BBWAA was likely to be a prolonged shot. This is because Vizquel relied more on superior metrics than on intestine feel and status and that new-school voters were entering the ranks of the BBWAA. Look for his share to stall during upcoming votes, and finally transfer into some future veterans committee.
What are some other holdovers?
The magic 50% threshold is nearer for Todd Helton (44.9%) and Billy Wagner (66.4%). Jeff Kent is hoping for a Walker-like surge on his ninth poll, having received only 32.4% last yr, despite hitting 377 residence runs, which is the record for second basemen, and driving in 1,518 runs (third after Rogers Hornsby and Nap Lajoie). He has suffered from a low profession WAR (55.5) and poor defense, as well as the crowded ballots that he received earlier in his candidacy. I expect him to make a significant leap forward, but not enough for the next two-years.
Other places to consider include Sheffield (40.6%) (33.9%), Andruw Jones (33.9%) (28.2%), Ramirez (13.7%), Andy Pettitte (13.7%), and Mark Buehrle (11.0%). Sosa (17.0%), will participate in the veterans committee purgatory with his pal Mark McGwire.
Are there other newcomers to the poll, in addition A-Rod or Ortiz?
Mark Teixeira (409 home runs, 50.6 WAR), and Jimmy Rollins (2.455 hits, an MVP Award. 47.6 WAR), have the highest probability. They are joined by Joe Nathan (ex-Minnesota Twins closer), who is compared significantly to Wagner.
Wagner: 47-40. 187 ERA+. 422 saves. 903 IP. 1196 SO.
Nathan: 64-34. 2.87 ERA. 151 ERA+. 377 Saves. 923 IP. 976 SO. 26.4 WAR
Comparable… but Wagner has greater saves and a better ERA. Nathan’s peak between 2004 and 2009, and again in 2013, was exceptional. However, he feels a step behind Wagner. He can probably fight to get to five percent.
Prince Fielder is a good case of what-if. He had 285 residence run through his age 29 season. However, he was only 34 years old when he retired due to neck damage. Instead of possibly hitting 600 residence runs, he managed 319. It is not clear if he would be a Corridor of Famer, even if he was healthy. His energy was already declining (30 residence runs in 2012, 25 in 2013), before the damage. He was not a very dynamic participant, hitting.283 with a.382 OBP. However, he wasn’t able to provide enough for Corridor of Fame participation. He was still a great player to look at in his Brewers days.
Tim Lincecum (two-time Cy Younger winner) will receive the same award. He received back-to-back awards in 2008 and 2009 with the Giants and helped them win 2010 World Collection. He reached a short, remarkable peak but he was not able to sustain it. It is an example of how just getting on the poll can help you honor a notable profession.