Hope springs everlasting relating to baseball groups, each within the main leagues in addition to with fantasy baseball squads. A few of the largest importers of hope every season are these “shiny new toys” — extremely touted rookies who’ve but to disappoint, bringing tons of promise and optimism to the desk.
The listing you are about to learn is strictly for fantasy functions and is a spin on my real-world value Top 100 list, which is closely influenced by scouts, executives and my very own scouting appears to be like. I do not play fantasy anymore, however I do assist some mates with their groups, and I get the big-picture changes from the baselines of my different lists: protection would not matter, place issues a bit, velocity would not actually matter until they steal bases, and many others. This listing will typically be within the order of that listing, solely after adjusting for these elements.
With that in thoughts, this is my ranked prime 20 of the most effective fantasy bets for 2023 amongst prospects and rookies — and I will element under the place these two phrases diverge. These candidates had been culled from my authentic listing of 1,294 gamers whom I ranked on this 12 months’s group lists (break up into AL and NL prospects), so there are just a few dozen extra viable Rookie of the Yr (ROY) candidates I might rank. Nevertheless, I do know you’re looking extra on the prime of this listing to your drafts than the underside.
1. Corbin Carroll, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
2. Gunnar Henderson, SS, Baltimore Orioles
I am flipping my prime two right here, however they’re alone on the 65 FV tier and are near a coin flip in each actual life and fantasy, so that they’re fairly interchangeable (in addition to the screaming favorites for the 2 ROY awards. Henderson has probability to be each SS and 3B eligible with a power-and-patience ability set and a few stolen base upside, whereas Carroll is an electrical athlete with 30-plus steals upside but in addition stable contact and energy expertise. I will lean towards the standout SB potential.
3. Masataka Yoshida, OF, Boston Red Sox
4. Kodai Senga, SP, New York Mets
I do not embrace any skilled gamers from abroad in my prospect listing, however each of those gamers are new to MLB and ROY-eligible, so I’ll embrace them right here. Yoshida is a refined hitter with average-or-so energy (roughly 15-20 homers yearly) who will play day by day for the Pink Sox. His real-world limitations of enjoying left area and never providing a lot velocity do not matter as a lot for fantasy. Senga suits within the custom of NPB starters who can step in and be an SP2/SP3 instantly, however he is additionally on a contender, which can assist his win whole.
5. Triston Casas, 1B, Boston Pink Sox: Casas may platoon at first base, which might restrict his enjoying time and places him simply behind this clear prime 4 for me. He’ll most likely solely play 1B and DH however has a uncommon mixture of hit, strategy and energy, with 25-HR upside in a great rookie season.
6. Esteury Ruiz, OF, Oakland Athletics: Ruiz is an elite runner who stole 86 bases final 12 months throughout three ranges and has 40-plus SB upside because the possible Opening Day heart fielder for the Athletics. He was the headliner of the Sean Murphy commerce and, a minimum of on paper, Oakland is the worst group within the American League, so Ruiz will get a number of alternatives. That stated, he may additionally be restricted by a weak offense and his probably batting ninth.
7. Ezequiel Tovar, SS, Colorado Rockies: Tovar is a “toolsy” younger shortstop who was promoted aggressively final season and likewise appears to be like set to start out the season with an on a regular basis spot close to the underside of the Colorado lineup. He has a shot to place up double figures in each homers and stolen bases. Nevertheless, he additionally swings loads, so there’s potential for a sluggish begin that might get him optioned to Triple-A. Alternatively, he is proficient sufficient and has Coors Discipline on his aspect. He might get ROY consideration if issues fall into place.
8. Miguel Vargas, 2B, Los Angeles Dodgers: Vargas is the following multipositional Dodgers prospect who can actually hit. He appears to be like more likely to begin the season within the lineup because the group’s common second baseman however could get time in any respect 4 nook spots as properly. He is a fringy defender in any respect 5 spots and, if he is not hitting, that may restrict his alternatives. Nonetheless, he is adequate to hit .280 with 15 homers, so I believe the Dodgers might be searching for causes to get his bat within the lineup.
9. Josh Jung, 3B, Texas Rangers: Jung was set to be a powerful ROY candidate final 12 months till he ended up lacking a lot of the season as a consequence of shoulder surgical procedure. He is again, and the previous top-10 total decide is penciled in because the on a regular basis third baseman, however there’s some threat as his plate self-discipline regressed when he returned late final 12 months. If issues click on, he might surpass each a .260 common and 20 homers.
10. Oswald Peraza, SS, New York Yankees: Peraza will very possible be the beginning shortstop for the Yankees this 12 months, with even higher prospect Anthony Volpe lingering behind him and doubtless beginning the season at Triple-A. Peraza is the most effective defensive shortstop of the numerous infielders the Yankees have, so he’ll have to essentially fall on his face on the plate to not get a number of enjoying time this season. He is a plus runner who has 20-plus SB potential and sneaky energy that might manifest in 15 homers — if he begins for the entire season.
11. Gabriel Moreno, C, Arizona Diamondbacks: Moreno is technically not ROY eligible since he already has 61 days of MLB service and the cutoff is 60, however he’s nonetheless on my prospect listing since he did not surpass the 135 at-bat restrict. I believe the purpose of this listing is steerage on younger gamers with restricted (or no) MLB time, so I will embrace him right here. He is a improbable athlete for a catcher who may begin the season in a part-time function, however one I believe will rack up 350-plus plate appearances. The headline right here is his plus-plus hitting skill (.280 or higher common), some steals upside and low double-digit homer upside.
12. Anthony Volpe, SS, New York Yankees: As I discussed earlier, Volpe appears to be like like he’ll begin the season at Triple-Some time the Yankees type out their infield depth. It appears possible that somebody will get harm or stoop, which might be simply sufficient of a gap for Volpe if he begins scorching, which I would anticipate. Since he is not on their 40-man roster but, the Yankees will not need to name him up till they should, however he might nonetheless hit his means onto the Opening Day roster.
Volpe is just the third-best SS defender in New York’s system (behind Peraza and Isiah Kiner-Falefa), so Volpe might also get some appears to be like at second or third base. If all of it clicks in 2023 and he performs the entire season within the huge leagues, he might hit .265 with 25 homers and double-figure stolen bases — he is a fringy runner however has good instincts and stole 50 final season. Nevertheless, that actual final result in 2023 is not that possible.
13. Hunter Brown, SP, Houston Astros
14. Grayson Rodriguez, SP, Baltimore Orioles
15. Jordan Walker, OF, St. Louis Cardinals
16. Logan O’Hoppe, C, Los Angeles Angels
17. Spencer Steer, 3B, Cincinnati Reds
18. Ken Waldichuk, SP, Oakland Athletics
19. Andrew Painter, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
20. Garrett Mitchell, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
I will go fast fireplace now with a view to briefly cowl a few of these different candidates on the again finish of my prime 20.
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Each Brown and Rodriguez have plus-stuff and might be SP2/SP3 straight away. Nevertheless each additionally come along with your typical pitcher threat. Waldichuk is a cool lefty who’s extra of a gradual SP3/SP4 sort.
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Painter and Walker are each ranked down right here as a result of they are not more likely to break with the mother or father group proper now. That stated, they’re each so good that they’ve ROY upside even when they play solely half of the season. In addition they might nonetheless have a blazing-hot March and make their golf equipment, so proceed to observe them.
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O’Hoppe and Steer are more likely to be non-platooned on a regular basis gamers with out begin upside however ought to each be stable contributors. In the meantime, Mitchell has energy/velocity potential but in addition might spend time within the minors and may properly get platooned if he stays up all 12 months.
Others who might be top-20 worthy by Opening Day
Francisco Alvarez, C, Mets; Jonathan Aranda, 1B, Rays; Brice Turang, SS, Brewers; Royce Lewis, SS, Twins; Gabriel Arias, SS, Guardians; Brett Baty, 3B, Mets; Curtis Mead, 3B, Rays; Oswaldo Cabrera, IF/OF, Yankees; Nolan Jones, IF/OF, Rockies; Alec Burleson, OF, Cardinals; Kerry Carpenter, DH, Tigers; Cade Cavalli, SP, Nationals; Ryne Nelson, SP, Diamondbacks; Shintaro Fujinami, SP, Athletics; Brandon Pfaadt, SP, Diamondbacks
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Pfaadt most likely will not break with the massive group however is a sleeper ROY candidate whom each scouts and analysts love. The group, park and division do not assist a lot.
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Alvarez and Baty are the primary two (forward of Mark Vientos and Ronny Mauricio) of the Mets’ hitting prospects on the 40-man roster who will both headline a commerce or come up after the primary harm/stoop.
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Carpenter, Jones, Aranda, Turang, Arias, Cabrera, and Burleson all have bench or platoon roles proper now, however might every probably seize a full-time spot with a powerful spring.
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Cavalli, Nelson and Fujinami have mid-rotation upside and are set to start out the season in a rotation however have command warts to work by way of.
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Mead has ROY potential, even in a half-season, however is not an awesome defender and the Rays tend to platoon their many position-player choices.
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Lewis is a former No. 1 total decide and a longtime top-100 prospect, however he has missed tons of time with varied accidents. He might return to the massive leagues within the second half with an influence/velocity combo that matches up the center.