-
Andre SnellingsESPN
His first season with the Bulls was a success. DeMar DeRozan He had the best season of any player in his career. He had a personal best of 27.9 points per game, was named All NBA Second Team and placed in the top-10 for MVP voting.
He could he repeat that success in his 14th season at 33?
Before the season began, I had predicted that it would be “yes”. DeRozan would average 27.1 PPG with 50.0 FG%, 87.0 FT% (5.1 RPG, and 5.0 APG).
He was a wildcard in his first two games. He made it seem as though he had a plan to surpass all expectations with back-toback 30-point performances and averages of 34.5, 7.5, and 6.0 PPG.
Then, Zach LaVine Made his season debut.
DeRozan would score 22.1 points per game (49.7 FFG% (91.4 FT%)), 3.6 RPG and 3.75 APG in the 12 remaining games. DeRozan would score no more than 20 points in seven of the 12 games. This includes two single-digit efforts, nine against the Hornets on Nov. 2 and nine against the Raptors November 7.
Let’s get into it. LaVine had missed two of the season’s first games as he was still recovering from knee surgery. DeRozan had also popped in his absence. LaVine was back, but there was a negative correlation between LaVine and DeRozan’s declining production.
-
LaVine started with 23 points and DeRozan only 13.
-
LaVine scored 28 in his third game. DeRozan scored 17.
-
LaVine sat in the fourth game following his return. DeRozan was back at 33.
-
Lavine’s season high 30 points was scored in the 10th of that stretch. DeRozan recorded a season low nine points.
This pattern was clear and extended beyond points. You can see that LaVine had 23.5 PPG, 4.8 APG, and DeRozan only 14.9 PPG. DeRozan was at 3.7 APG. DeRozan’s average of 32.2 PPG was 3.6 APG. LaVine scored 19.5 PPG (and 3.0 APG) in the five other games.
DeRozan’s numbers were up in the first 12 games following LeVine’s debut, when LaVine had high usage. DeRozan was at his best when LaVine had a low usage.
However, DeRozan can struggle when LaVine is playing well. Why wasn’t that the case last year?
DeRozan had last season’s crowning achievement, which included a high usage LaVine that averaged 24.4 PG on 47.6 F% and 4.5 APG. DeRozan was able to thrive with high-usage LaVine last year, so why wouldn’t he do the same this season?
Partly, the answer lies beyond LaVine, but mostly with the rest the backcourt. Last season, the campaign’s point guard was Lonzo Ball. Ball is the closest thing to a 3-and-3 point guard, a pass first and pass second player who took 70% of his shots from spot-up 3-pointers made off ball movement. The season’s second point guard was Alex CarusoAnother low-usage guard who focuses on defense was. Ball and Caruso got hurt and missed half of last year. But when they were out, rookies Ayo Dosunmu They continued to use low-usage and became the starter. DeRozan was promoted to offense initiator, while LaVine was elevated to the role of starter.
Now fast forward to the beginning of the season. A closer look reveals the difference in the other guard spot. Dosunmu began the season with newly acquired equipment while Ball was still out. Goran Dragic Assuming a bigger role. Dosunmu had 11.6 PPG and 3 APG in the 12 games that we examined, while Dragic had 10.2 PPG (3.6 APG) in 18.9 MPG. For 48 minutes, the Bulls point guard averaged nearly 23 points and 7 assists per games during that stretch. This is a lot more production at a higher usage level than DeRozan was able to give last season.
The Bulls did seem to reorganize around November 16 as Dosunmu fell back (8.7 PPG and 2.3 APG respectively since Nov. 16), while Dragic was almost entirely out of the offense (3.5PPG, 2.3APG in 13.5MPG since Nov.16) Alex Caruso is playing a greater role than before, with 26.0 MPG at 8.7 PPG and 3.0 APG respectively (from 4.3, 4.0, and 5.0 APG in 12 prior games).
Caruso and Dosunmu have effectively re-enacted the role of point guard from last season. DeRozan is producing like a clockwork even though LaVine was not present in every game.
DeRozan averaged 31.1 points per game in the seven games that have followed November 16. In every game, he has scored at least 26 point. While there is some correlation between LaVine and his output, it starts at a higher level. LaVine scored only 20 points in those two games. DeRozan had his best scoring games with 41 points and 36 points. DeRozan still has 28 and 7 assists respectively, while LaVine has scored 25+ points in both of the games. DeRozan has also popped for 30 points and 6 assists. Their two most talented players can thrive with a defensive-minded, low-usage point guard slot.
This is good news for DeRozan and LaVine’s fantasy players in fantasy basketball, especially DeRozan. LaVine’s output is dependent more on his ability to finish and his health than his deployment. His 40.7% field shooting keeps his scoring averages low, despite his 17.8 FGA/G. DeRozan is showing that he can easily replicate, if he doesn’t improve on, his career numbers from last season. He can shoot well on high volumes and has excellent shooting percentages, so if the Bulls give him the ball, he will be able to score consistently at 30-points/5 assists. DeRozan has the potential to flirt with late-first round value depending on league formats and is expected to be in the top-20 in almost every league.
So, if you can trade for him at any value less than that, or if you are still planning to draft your league in upcoming weeks, keep in mind that DeRozan has the kind of production-vs-reputation profile that can win you fantasy hoops leagues.