Aaron Rodgers His NFL career was long, rich, and Hall of Fame-worthy. Although he played only 17 seasons, he holds the fifth-most passing touchdowns (449), the second-best passer rating (104.5), which is also the tops among quarterbacks who have played more than five seasons. He also has sixth-most fantasy points (4,5335.50). Most 300-point fantasy seasons (10).
He finished last season as fantasy football‘s No. 5 QB and No. He was a 37-year old and managed to score 333.30 points as the top player overall. Yet, despite all Rodgers’ accomplishments, this column will provide the contrarian’s perspective to building your fantasy 2022 team around Rodgers. Green Bay Packers star.
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What’s changed in Green Bay
Fantasy football can be used to address today, tomorrow, or beyond. As the 2022 season approaches, Rodgers’ outlook has been altered by significant roster changes. Most notable, Davante AdamsRodgers’ most trusted target during the passing game was traded to the Las Vegas RaidersWhile Rodgers was ninth, second, and fifth among quarterbacks for fantasy points in 2019, 2021, Rodgers took over as offensive coordinator. Hackett became the Denver Broncos’ coach.
Adam Stenavich, the former offensive line coach, will be taking over as the offensive coordinator. This is a possible incidental change but it’s worth noting that Rodgers per-game fantasy production fell below 20 points each of the three seasons that the team had a new offensive coordinator (2015-2018 and 2019). Although it is unlikely, this anomaly and Rodgers history merit attention.
How much did Rodgers depend on Adams?
Adams’ departure demands Rodgers’ greatest adjustment. An initial glance at the facts might reveal that Rodgers won every single game Adams missed in the previous three seasons. They averaged 24.05 fantasy points during those contests. However, the small-sample limitation applies. A quick look at those seven games reveals that they resulted in 9.42 (2019 week 5), 18.32 (2021 week 6) and 15.66 (2021 week 8) points respectively, which is not matchup-winning totals. People who believe that small samples are important should understand that Rodgers had greater statistical peaks than Adams.
More important is the fact that Rodgers has relied on Adams for statistical success in recent years. Adams’ 27.6% share of the target from 2019 to 2021 was just behind Justin Jefferson’s 27.8%. They were almost 2% ahead the next-best receivers. Includes Adams missed targets while he was sitting those seven games. Adams’ healthy games would have given him a target share of 32%. Rodgers will need to make major adjustments this season. Instead of relying on Adams, Rodgers will now use a smaller, more accomplished receiver group.
Consider that Rodgers has scored an average of 0.362 fantasy points per offensive play when Adams has been on it, compared with 0.279 when Adams is not. The most striking statistical difference between Rodgers and Adams’ splits is the fact that Rodgers average depth of target was over a yard farther downfield when Adams was on the field. This is the core of the problem. He won’t have the elite field-stretcher a quarterback needs to maximize his passing yards, touchdown potential. The bottom line for fantasy is that his Upside The company has taken a direct hit.
Who will Rodgers call now?
The Packers signed Adams to return to Rodgers’ receivers. Sammy Watkins Drafting Christian WatsonBoth were free agents, but the latter was not a top draft prospect. This contrast is clear in the target lists. Only one current receiver (wide receiver, tight end) has scored 150+ fantasy points in PPR over the past five seasons. Robert Tonyan. He has never exceeded 50.4 point in any other season during his career.
In the past, a quarterback has scored at most 300 fantasy points without having either a 240 point wide receiver or a 160 point tight end on the roster. Seven (Randall Cunningham, Rodgers, Michael Vick, Rodgers, Rodgers, Rodgers, Rodgers, Rodgers, Rodgers, Rodgers, Rodgers, Michael Vick, Robert Griffin III, 2012) Deshaun Watson 2020 Russell Wilson In 2014 and 2019, QBs who made a significant amount of their production with their legs (Rodgers ran 316 yards in 2009 and a career high five points in 2019) were turned in. Rodgers believers should see a way for them to succeed. Someone To reach these thresholds, you can check the roster. Are you able to see one?
Expect to see more emphasis on running backs Aaron Jones AJ Dillon In the passing game, the Packers backs had the fifth-most fantasy points received by the league. However, that is still a shorter-range strategy with a lower ceiling. This means Rodgers may struggle to deliver the 30-point fantasy performances that he has delivered in the past. And with the rise of mobile quarterbacks, Rodgers is at a greater disadvantage than his positional brethren.
The new reality
Rodgers is now 38 and has seen a steady decline in mobility. In his first ten seasons as a starter, Rodgers averaged at least 3.3 rush attempts per game from 2008 to 2017. He has fallen below that mark in four of the last four seasons. This includes just 2.4 and 2.99 carries per games in the past two seasons. These are his lowest averages of his career. His fantasy production has been eroded by a further aspect of the game, namely rushing. Doug Flutie is the only history-making quarterback to attempt more than 40 rushing attempts per season when he was 38 years old. Ryan Fitzpatrick (2020), he (2003), and Ryan Fitzpatrick (2003) also had seasons with at least 30 attempts, 150 yards, multiple touchdowns, and rushing at this age.
However, this is not to suggest that Rodgers should be avoided in fantasy drafts. Rodgers is certain to have the five-or-so weeks of potentially winning totals. His ceiling won’t likely exceed final totals from any eight of the top quarterbacks ESPN has ranked. And in this rushing-friendly quarterback era Rodgers leans more matchups-type rather than centerpiece-type.
Consider Rodgers to be the quarterback that you’d like to see as your QB2, matchups partner, or to pair up with one QB at the back of the positional top 10.