A season’s first few games can be both a sign of what is to come, or a sample that can be used to write off the rest of the 82-game campaign. Although it has only been five or six games in most clubs, six games is still more than 7 percent of the fantasy totals that you will get from a full-season.
This is the time to either shrug or buckle down depending on the situation. Much of it boils down to how confident and able you feel about a player’s ability to overcome slow starts or keep them going. It’s important to evaluate each player individually before you make a decision. It’s important to remember that assets can be traded early and seasons can be won/lost.
We’ll be able to simultaneously quell your fears and excite your passions by looking at how players fared last season.
Marc-Andre Fleury, G, Minnesota Wild: Fleury finished at 0-4-0 on October 26 last year. Chicago Blackhawks The average fantasy point per game was minus-5.49, which is on pace to remove more than 200 fantasy fantasy points from rosters before the season ends. At 36 years old, the tender had allowed 18 goals and posted an average of 5.75 goals against. His demise was not far away. Or so it seemed. It wasn’t easy for the Hawks to get better. Fleury was not a fantasy asset that could be set and forgotten, but he did turn his season around. He ended the season with 28 victories, was traded by the Wild, and earned 125.6 fantasy point, good for 17th among goaltenders. Fleury currently stands at 1-1-1 in four games. He is averaging minus-3.20 fantasy point per game and on pace to subtract 170 fantasy point by the season’s conclusion. The 37-year-old has scored 18 goals and had a 5.25 GAA. Fleury’s start to last season was worse than this one so I think we can give Fleury some credit.
Mitchell Marner, W, Toronto Maple Leafs: Managers who picked Marner are licking their lips as Marner, the supposed top-20 pick, sits tied for 155th with 9.8 fantasy point. They would not be wrong, I’m sure. You didn’t sign up for five goals and four assists in the draft. Marner might be a slow starter. Marner only had 4.4 fantasy points in his seven last games, which was Oct. 26th. After one point in the season opener, Marner posted six goose eggs for six consecutive seasons. With 191.9 fantasy points, he would finish 19th out of all skaters.
Andrei Svechnikov, W, Carolina Hurricanes: What about a player who goes the opposite way? Svechnikov’s fantasy totals were 18.5 points and 3.00 fantasy points per games (FPPG) at this stage of last season. He had scored five goals, nine assists, and taken 24 shots through five games. He seemed to be breaking into the elite tier for a 21-year old entering his fourth NHL year. He did, but he didn’t. Last season, Svechnikov finished with 161.3 fantasy point — or 2.1 FPPG. This is solid, but it ranked 57th among all skaters at the end of the campaign. His rates for Oct. 26 were amongst the top 10 at start of season. But what about this season. It’s happening again. Svechnikov sits at ninth in the skaters’ standings, with 3.7 goals per game and 18.5 fantasy point through five games. This is exactly what he did last season after just five games. He’s now 22 years old and entering his fifth NHL season. It feels like he may be able to maintain his pace better. He’s getting almost 90 seconds more ice-time to start this season than last year. Another reason is that his line looks better with a rejuvenated appearance. Martin Necas A commitment to Jesperi Kotkaniemi As a top-six forward
Valeri Nichushkin, W, Colorado Avalanche: This is not about Nichushkin as a player. He has certainly improved since then and boasts a much more offensive profile. Other power plays with hot starts that score at low rates to begin the season and then inflate stats are what we are referring to. David Perron The last season’s stage saw the skaters finish 10th in fantasy points. St. Louis Blues Through five games, power play rocking at 37.5% Blues had the best advantage in the league at 37.5% through five games, but it cooled to 27% by season’s end. Perron would finish 136th among skaters in fantasy points, despite his power-play-fueled start. These are the four power-play goals Nichushkin scored in six games this season. Let’s just say that the Avs will not finish the season with a power-play conversion rate of 52.9%.
Jordan BinningtonG, St. Louis Blues Binnington was 4-1 at this point last season with a.919 save rate and 4.75 fantasy goals per 60 minutes (FPP60). He would have been seventh among goaltenders at the end of the campaign with those rates. Binnington would finish 36th among goaltenders. He is behind backups like Kaapo Kahkonen Anthony Stolarz. Binnington even lost his No. Binnington even lost his No. Ville Husso (Now with Detroit). He has looked fantastic through three starts this year, posting a 30-0 record,.940 save rate, and 6.79 FPP60. However, you can be forgiven if you approach with caution.
Juuse Saros, G, Nashville Predators: It seems like we should give Saros some time to adjust to each season. Saros’s first five games of this season are 1-3-1. He has allowed 15 goals and only 0.2 fantasy points. However, it wasn’t much better last season. Saros posted an unbeaten record of 1-4-0 with 14 goals permitted and 1.2 total fantasy point. With 207.8 fantasy point, he finished fourth last season.
Brent BurnsCarolina Hurricanes, D: Burns, who is a defensively sound Hurricanes player, might find this too snazzy. Burns had the exact same three assists last season through five games. He had 11 shots last year; this season, he has 18. The most significant difference between Burns’ 2.7 FPPPG in the first season of last season and his 1.2 FPPPG this season comes down to the usual staples of blocked shots. Burns had 19 blocked shots in five games last year. He has not blocked one shot this season. This could be a problem because Hurricanes are so dominant in possession and have many other skilled shot-blockers.