Will there be a return journey to Dallas for Sport 6? Or will there be an prolonged keep in Las Vegas for the beginning of the Stanley Cup Remaining?
Plus, might there be one other recreation that goes into additional time?
These are a couple of of the questions coming into Sport 5 of the Western Convention finals between the Dallas Stars and the Vegas Golden Knights on Saturday (8 p.m. ET, ABC and ESPN+) at T-Cell Enviornment. A collection that has seen three of its 4 video games determined in additional time as soon as once more comes with a prize on the finish for whoever walks away with the win.
For the Golden Knights, a win would give them their second Western Convention title within the franchise’s six-year historical past. If the Stars win, they’d pressure a Sport 6 on the American Airways Middle in Dallas, realizing that captain Jamie Benn could be eligible to return following his two-game suspension for a cross-check on Golden Knights captain Mark Stone in Sport 3.
Now that you already know what’s at stake, we have put collectively a information on what to look at from every crew, together with keys to victory from Ryan S. Clark and in-depth statistical evaluation from ESPN Stats & Data.
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Clark’s paths to victory
Stars should proceed to get high-danger probabilities
What was completely different for the Stars in Sport 4 in comparison with their three earlier contests within the Western Convention finals? How concerning the reality they’d practically as many high-danger scoring probabilities in a single recreation as they’d within the first three video games mixed.
No, actually. That is not hyperbole. Dallas had a grand complete of 19 high-danger probabilities in 5-on-5 play in its first three video games, in keeping with Pure Stat Trick. But in Sport 4, the Stars completed with 15 high-danger probabilities in these 5-on-5 sequences and have been in a position to unlock a portion of the ice that is been central to the Golden Knights’ playoff success.
Few groups have been stronger than the Golden Knights this postseason with regards to limiting high-danger probabilities. They’re permitting 10.5 high-danger probabilities per 60, once more in keeping with Pure Stat Trick. That is third within the playoffs. Solely the Minnesota Wild and the — yeah, you guessed it — Stars have allowed fewer high-danger probabilities per 60 than the Golden Knights.
It is what made Jason Robertson‘s two-goal efficiency fairly pivotal. Sure, there’s the actual fact he now has 4 objectives on this collection. However the reality these objectives got here inside 10 ft of the online and certainly one of them got here in 5-on-5 play? There’s an opportunity that what the Stars did in Sport 4 might function a blueprint for easy methods to discover success on Saturday and past.
Dallas should obtain contributions from extra gamers
Going again to Robertson, this collection has seen him discover the consistency that eluded him within the convention semifinal collection towards the Seattle Kraken. He went from zero objectives in seven second-round video games to scoring 4 objectives by means of 4 video games of this spherical.
You may be feeling a “however” approaching and, nicely, you are right. Robertson has scored half of the Stars’ eight objectives this collection, which as soon as once more reignites the dialog concerning the significance of receiving extra offensive contributions past one participant. On the entire, the Stars have proved they will get objectives from everybody of their lineup. It is why they’ve had 16 completely different gamers rating at the very least one aim.
That is tied with the Golden Knights for essentially the most particular person aim scorers within the playoffs. However it additionally comes with the understanding they could want extra than simply Robertson in the event that they need to do greater than pressure a Sport 6.
Take a look at who’ve been a number of the Stars’ largest contributors. Tyler Seguin, who’s fourth on the crew in playoff objectives, hasn’t scored in his previous 9 video games, and has just one level in that span. Wyatt Johnston, who’s tied for fifth in scoring, has not scored a aim or recorded some extent within the convention finals. Till his help in Sport 4, Max Domi hadn’t recorded some extent in his previous 4 video games, whereas Mason Marchment has one level — a aim — in his previous seven video games.
Take note of the patterns for Vegas
Now that we’ve a bit of little bit of time, there’s one thing value stating concerning the Golden Knights this postseason. They do not actually lose that a lot. Their Sport 4 additional time loss was simply the fourth time the Golden Knights have misplaced this postseason. Moreover, the Golden Knights haven’t misplaced consecutive playoff video games this 12 months.
As for what the Golden Knights have performed after these losses? Let’s simply say there’s a sample inside their sample. They did it to the Winnipeg Jets after dropping Sport 1 within the first spherical, and so they did it twice to the Edmonton Oilers after dropping Video games 2 and 4 within the second spherical.
This is how these video games have gone. The Golden Knights surrender the opening aim throughout the first 10 minutes of the primary interval. And whereas the Golden Knights rating a response aim, they’ve really saved their most emphatic salvos for both the second or third durations, once they have damaged out for 3 objectives in a single body in every of these video games.
They put the Jets away with a three-goal third interval in Sport 2. They did it to the Oilers with a three-goal second interval in Sport 2 earlier than doing it once more with one other three-goal second interval in Sport 5. And for these scoring at house? Seven of these 9 objectives got here in 5-on-5 play — which reveals the Golden Knights do not want the extra-skater benefit to place groups away.
Do not let Roope Hintz cook dinner … anymore
You could have seen Roope Hintz in Sport 4. How might you not? He’s, in any case, a hulking 6-foot-3, do-everything heart who has been so dominant that in 17 postseason video games, he is one level shy of scoring a 3rd of the factors he scored in 73 regular-season video games. To repeat: Hintz has 24 factors in 17 postseason video games, after scoring 75 factors in 73 regular-season video games.
Hintz had a pair of secondary assists in Sport 4 that got here with their very own significance in that they have been his first factors since breaking out for 3 factors in Sport 1. Given the Golden Knights saved Hintz with out a level for 2 video games, what was it that modified in Sport 4 that noticed him seize two factors?
It is attainable it might be a matter of matchups. Pure Stat Trick reveals that Golden Knights coach Bruce Cassidy constantly used his high defensive pairing of Alec Martinez and Alex Pietrangelo in Sport 2 as a approach of containing Hintz. Martinez logged a bit of greater than 12 minutes towards Hintz, whereas Pietrangelo was just some seconds shy of 12 minutes towards him in Sport 2. The Stars’ Finnish dynamo completed that recreation with two photographs and 0 factors whereas his line as a complete didn’t document a single level in 5-on-5 play.
Cassidy used a rotation of defensemen towards Hintz and his line within the four-goal win in Sport 3, whereas Sport 4 noticed Nicolas Hague and Zach Whitecloud obtain essentially the most ice time towards Hintz. Hague had 8:13 in 5-on-5 time towards Hintz and his line, with Whitecloud checking in at 7:58. The consequence was they have been on the ice for the game-tying aim within the second interval. So, whereas Hague and Whitecloud are the seventh-most used defensive pairing in 5-on-5 ice time within the playoffs, it’s also attainable Cassidy might both use them or return to Martinez and Pietrangelo in an try to faucet into the success the latter had in Sport 2.
Notes from ESPN Stats & Data
Golden Knights
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Vegas can clinch its second Stanley Cup Remaining look in franchise historical past (additionally made it in 2018). The Golden Knights could be the eighth franchise in NHL historical past to achieve the Remaining a number of instances inside their first six NHL seasons, following the Edmonton Oilers (3 times), St. Louis Blues (3 times), New York Rangers (3 times), Boston Bruins (3 times), authentic Ottawa Senators (3 times), Montreal Maroons (two instances) and Toronto Arenas/St. Patricks (two instances).
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Each of Vegas’ objectives in Sport 4 got here from within 10 ft. For the collection, they’ve seen success when attending to web. Eight of their 13 objectives (61.5%) on this collection have been inside 15 ft.
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William Karlsson and Jonathan Marchessault each recorded their eighth aim of the 2023 playoffs within the Sport 4 loss. That’s tied for essentially the most objectives in a single postseason in Golden Knights historical past with Alex Tuch (2020) and Marchessault (2018).
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Jack Eichel recorded an help in Sport 4, his seventeenth level of the 2023 Stanley Cup playoffs. That’s second most by a U.S.-born skater in his first postseason, behind solely Jake Guentzel (21 in 2017).
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Golden Knights defensemen recorded 15 photographs on aim in Sport 4, their most in a single recreation in these playoffs. Sport 4 marked the sixth time that the Vegas protection corps recorded at the very least 10 photographs on aim.
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Adin Hill made 16 saves off the push in Sport 4. He leads all goaltenders within the playoffs with a .973 save proportion on photographs coming off the push, in keeping with Stathletes.
Stars
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After going 1-for-7 on the facility play within the first three video games of the collection, the Stars went 2-for-2 on the facility play in Sport 4, together with the sport winner in additional time. It was the sixth time this postseason Dallas had a number of tallies with the additional skater, and first in its earlier seven video games.
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Within the 2023 Stanley Cup playoffs, the Stars are changing 32% of their power-play alternatives, which might be the best by the franchise in a single postseason since crew monitoring first started in 1977-78. The present franchise document is 31% by the North Stars in 1983.
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Jason Robertson recorded his first profession multigoal recreation within the playoffs, giving him 52 objectives when combining the common season and playoffs. In Stars/North Stars franchise historical past, solely Brian Bellows (59 in 1989-90), Dino Ciccarelli (58 in 1981-82) and Mike Modano (57 in 1993-94) have extra objectives than Robertson’s 52.
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Jamie Benn was suspended for Sport 4 and can be suspended for Sport 5 as nicely. In his place was 26-year-old Fredrik Olofsson, who performed simply over 10 minutes and had 5 photographs on aim, which was second most behind Jason Robertson’s 11. Olofsson turned the third participant within the 2023 playoffs to have a recreation with 5 photographs on aim in 11 minutes of ice time or much less, together with Daniel Sprong and Paul Stastny.
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Roope Hintz recorded two assists to provide him a league-leading 24 factors this postseason. Hintz’s complete is tied for sixth most in a single postseason in franchise historical past with Brett Hull (24 in 2000) and 5 away from the franchise document held by Steve Payne (1981) and Brian Bellows (1991).
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Miro Heiskanen had two assists in Sport 4, his tenth and eleventh assists of the 2023 Stanley Cup playoffs, the second time he has reached double digits within the postseason. Solely two different defensemen in franchise historical past have a number of 10-assist postseasons with the franchise: Brad Maxwell (twice) and Sergei Zubov (twice).