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What you need to know about Sunday’s post-season games
— Jim McCormick & Kyle Soppe
The Impact of Embiid Joel EmbiidReturned for Game 3 and the Philadelphia 76ers won by 20.
Be careful. The 76ers had a record of 87 possessions per hour on Friday night for the third consecutive Christmas. This was a 8.2% decrease from Games 1 and 2. It’s not ideal if your goal is to place bets on any player from either team. Are both teams likely to fail again to score 100 points? It may not be, but blindly believing that the return of a statistic sheet stuffer results is counting number goodness (for him and anyone else in this match for that matter) can lead to dangerous outcomes.
Book a bounce back Devin BookerOn Friday night, he was a complete failure in nearly all aspects. He scored just 18 points in 40 minutes and didn’t look at his best (five turnovers, more missed FTs) than he did when he entered the playoffs. He was mad. I get it. However, none of these struggles have any impact on today’s action, so going back to the well is a good idea. Phoenix shot nearly 79% of their shots from their starting unit. This is a sign they will ride or die with their primary options.
This kind of stability is vital in the prop market. Let’s not forget the fact that Booker has made 9 out of 14 triples over these two games. There is no guarantee that a player will win, but Booker and the Suns have more upside than disadvantages in this spot. The market is reacting to Game 3’s outcome.
Breaking down today’s games
Phoenix SunsAt Dallas Mavericks
3:30 p.m. ET, American Airlines Center in Dallas
Line: Suns (-2)
Moneyline: Suns (-140), Mavericks (+1120)
Total: 214.5 Points
BPI Projected Total213.2 Points
BPI Win% Mavericks (58.8%).
Questionable: Torrey Craig (elbow).
Ruled out: Dario Saric (knee), Tim Hardaway Jr. (foot).
Note: BPI numbers account for players who are ruled-out, but assumes that questionable gamers will play
Notable: In their 10 most recent home games, the Mavs are 8-1-1 against the spread (Game 3 was won by nine points for Game 1 as a 1-point favourite).
The best bet is: Chris PaulOver 30.5 points + assists + rebound
Paul is coming off a terrible Game 3. He lost nearly twice as many turnovers (77) as he did assists (44) and scored just 12 points in a Suns defeat. Paul’s only postseason loss was against the Pelicans in Game 4, which saw him score just 12 points. In that game, Paul recovered with 22 points, 11 assists, and 6 rebounds. Paul has performed exceptionally well in the playoffs, scoring an average 21.4 PPG, 9.2 APPG, and 4.9 RPG (35.5 PAR). He should return to his normal level in Game 4. — André Snellings
The best bet is:Suns -1.5
The Suns were sloppy with 17 turnovers in Game 3. Seven of those turnovers were committed by Paul. Paul, a veteran point guard and one of the greatest of all time, committed seven of them. He will bounce back with the rest. The Suns can win Game 4 if their turnovers are limited and they score in the paint less often. Phoenix will cover. Eric Moody
The best bet is: Deandre AytonMore than 27.5 points + rebounds
Ayton played solid Game 3, scoring 16 points and grabbing 11 rebounds. Ayton has posted an average of 19.2 PPG, 9.0 RPG, and 65.3% shooting from the field in the playoffs. Paul will attempt to make amends, and Ayton will be heavily relied-on as the Suns try to assert their dominance of the paint after being outscored by 50-32 in Game 3. Moody
The best bet is:Unter 214.5
My opinion is that Game 3’s final score was a disaster because the Suns missed so many shots, and the Mavericks shot poorly from beyond the arc. Phoenix’s postseason field goal percentage is 52.6%. The Suns should improve on both offense and defense. I’m going with the under. Moody
The best bet is: Chris PaulOver 25.5 points + assistance
Snellings, as well as I, believe Paul will rebound. Paul’s birthday was spoilt by the Mavericks, as his seven turnovers during the first half were his most prolific in any period of his career. I would be surprised if this veteran point guard didn’t come back today. Paul averaged 21.4 PPG during this postseason and 9.2 APG. Moody
Miami Heatat Philadelphia 76ers
8:00 p.m. ET, Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia
Line: 76ers (-2)
Moneyline: 76ers (-1130), Heat (+110)
Total: 207.5 points
BPI Projected Total208 points
BPI Win% 76ers (62.1%)
Questionable: Kyle Lowry (hamstring), Max Strus(hamstring), Gave Vincent(knee). Isaiah Joe (ankle), Joel Embiid (orbital).
Ruled out: None
Note: BPI numbers account for players who are ruled-out, but assumes that questionable gamers will play
Notable: The Heat have been 10-1-1 ATS in 12 road matches, and are now just 1-3 ATS in four of their last four away games from Miami. Game 3 was lost by 20 to a 1-point underdog.
The best bet is: Tyrese MaxeyMore than 19.5 points
Maxey has been successful in his attempt against the Heat, especially in heavy spurts where the defense isn’t focused on him. The Heat defense was geared towards preventing penetration in Game 1. This negatively affected both Embiid and Maxey. James HardenMaxey. Maxey, however, was able to play loose and score a career high. Maxey was scoreless in Game 3. In the first half Maxey appeared to be too dependent on the newly returned Embiid. Maxey scored 21 points in the second half. Maxey had plenty of time to mentally adjust to Game 5 as Embiid will play again. While the Heat’s defense will be more focused on Embiid’s play, it’s unlikely that he’ll be ready to handle his usual volume. This combination is great for Maxey. He can count on Maxey to score, but should be facing a much more focused defense. — Snellings
The best bet is: Below 207.5
One of the three opening games has not reached the over because neither team shot more than 45% and Miami missed nearly half its 29 3-point attempts. Both teams have suffered scoring lulls. Embiid is also wearing a mask after he has been injured and returns to play. As a result, defenses tend to become more familiar with offensive sets as well as player tendencies. This should not be a fast game. Doug Kezirian
The best bet is: Kyle LowryOver 14.5 points + Assists
Recall that Lowry, who had been absent for two weeks, returned to Game 3 after being absent. He failed to score in a playoff match for the second time in 10 years. Lowry should have had a better night tonight. He averaged 15.4 PPG over the last five seasons and 6.7 APG during the playoffs. Moody
The best bet is:Heat +1.5 in Game 3. Joel Embiid returned. Although he wasn’t the dominant offensive player, he made up for it with his defense. Miami scored 79. It was their second consecutive game below 80 points. The Heat will regroup for Game 4. Miami has been the underdog on 20 occasions this season, with Miami winning by at least two points. They have also covered the spread 16 times. Moody
The best bet is: Jimmy ButlerOver 34.5 points + assists + rebound
In Game 3, Butler was responsible for 41.8% of Heat’s 79 point total. This was the third most points in a game for Butler in both the regular season, and the playoffs. In the 2022 playoffs, Butler averaged 27.4 points per game, 5.4 assists per game and 7.9 rebounds per game. He will be a key part of the Heat’s future success. Moody