Caesars Sportsbook provides all odds
What you need to know about Saturday’s post-season games
Jaylen – Putting the A in JaylenTheir dynamic duo and their ability put the ball in their baskets are the driving force behind Boston’s offense. But that’s not the only thing that will matter in tonight’s pivotal Game 3! It’s not difficult to see that the Bucks use a “beat them from deep if possible” defensive game plan. This has been consistent through this series. During the regular season Jaylen BrownAveraged one assist every 7.6 minute in games where the Celtics throw up at least 45 threes. This is up from one assist every 10.3 minutes when they don’t. Boston has been averaging 46.5 triples per games in this series. If that trend continues, Brown will surpass his assist total for his playoff role, which sees him playing over 40 minutes each night.
Counting CurryGame 1 Stephen CurryHe took 60% of his shots at distance and grabbed three rebounds. He scored nine boards and 44% of his shots were from 3 in Game 2. What happened? Gary Payton IIPlayed 23 minutes in the first game and was hurt three minutes into the second. Little Glove had seven rebounds in game one and did not attempt a 3. In short, he was responsible for much of the inside-arc lifting duties for this backcourt. Curry has had more rebounds in playoffs than during regular season. We saw this trend Tuesday night when he was with Payton. His regular season average was 5.2 rebounds, so it’s a solid bet that Curry will score at least six tonight.
Brook’s Blocks: The Milwaukee BucksHave relied on Brook LopezThis postseason, we will be protecting the paint. Lopez allowed the Celtics only 45% shooting within six feet of their baskets in each of their two games against Boston. Lopez averages six shots in the paint per game. Lopez is well placed to score multiple points in the pivotal Game 3 because DraftKings has Lopez at 1.5 odds for a block prop.
— Jim McCormick & Kyle Soppe
Today’s games broken down
Boston CelticsAt Milwaukee Bucks
3:30 p.m ET, Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
Line: Bucks (-1.5)
Moneyline: Celtics (+105), Bucks (-125)
Total: 213 points
BPI Projected Total: 220.2
BPI Win% Celtics 53.1%
Questionable: Marcus Smart (thigh), George Hill (abdomen)
Ruled out: Khris Middleton (knee)
Note: BPI numbers are used to account for players who have been ruled out, but assume that questionable players will still play
Notable: The Bucks enjoy extended time between games. Until it isn’t. The Bucks have been just 4-7 ATS since the start of last season when they have more than two games between them (compared to 5 ATS in their six previous home games).
Your best option: Brook LopezOver 5.5 reboundsLopez’s performance in the series has been mixed. He is still averaging 8.0 RPG, and making an impact in the glass. This trend is expected to continue in Milwaukee. It will be fascinating to see Lopez’s offensive contributions in Game 3. — Eric Moody
Your best option: Robert Williams IIIOver 14.5 points + rebounds Williams has posted 8.0 points per game and 6.0 points per game in this series. He continues to recover from a torn Meniscus. Williams averaged 10 points per game and 9.6 rebounds during the regular season. Williams should be given more playing time. — Moody
Your best option: Jayson Tatum over 42.5 points+assists+rebounds.With Jaylen BrownTatum was slow to start Game 2. However, Tatum may be able to swing the pendulum back to Tatum as Brown is dealing with a right hand hamstring injury. He has managed to average 25 PPG, 7.0 APG, and 4.5 RPG through this series.Moody
Best bet: Lopez over over 5.5 rebounds.For the past few games, I have been on Lopez over rebounds and he has gone over every time. He’s now over 4.5 boards in six playoffs games, despite the line being set at 4.5. The line has risen to 5.5 boards, but he has still exceeded the 5.5 mark in both of his games against the Celtics so far. Lopez should see plenty of time, barring any foul trouble from last week. The Celtics have a strong enough frontline to warrant Lopez getting plenty of minutes. He can rebound against a team that is focusing most of their energy on Giannis. In the series, he’s averaged 8.2 RPG. — André Snellings
Memphis Grizzliesat Golden State Warriors
8:30 p.m ET, Chase Center, San Francisco, CA
Line-7
Moneyline: Grizzlies (+240), Warriors -300
Total: 225.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 224.6
BPI Win% Warriors 55.4%
Ruled out: Andre Iguodola (neck), Gary Payton II (elbow), Dillon Brooks (suspended)
Note: BPI numbers are used to account for players who have been ruled out, but assume that questionable players will still play
Notable:Are you ready to see the points pile up in Golden State tonight? Each of their previous four home games, which went over the total, have been covered by the Warriors.
Your best option: Ja Morant over 44.5 points+assists+rebounds. This unfortunate injury was suffered by Gary Payton IIAfter he was fouled by Dillon BrooksMorant’s benefits Morant’s performance improved immediately after his injury. Morant finished the playoff season with 47 points, eight assists, and eight rebounds. The Warriors will have trouble slowing him down. — Moody
Your best option: Klay ThompsonOver 21.5 pointsThompson isn’t shooting the ball well right now. He averages 13.5 PPG with a 29% field-goal percentage. To defeat the Grizzlies, the Warriors will need to do more. Stephen CurryAnd Jordan Poole. Thompson should do well at home. In the playoffs, Thompson has averaged 19.4 PPG during his career. — Moody
Your best option: Stephen CurryMore than 33.5 points plus assist.Curry has posted 25.5 PPG, 6.0 APG and a shooting percentage of 42.2% against the Grizzlies so far. The Warriors haven’t done well from beyond the arc so far in this series. Tonight’s game should change that. The Warriors have won 37.3% of their triples in playoffs games over the last ten years. — Moody
Your best option: Desmond BaneMore than 17.5 pointsThis pick is based on Bane getting more rest between Games 2 & 3. Bane had averaged 27.0 PPG in his four previous outings (51.4 FG% and 52.3 3P%), but he struggled to produce in the first two games with 7.0 PPG (29.4 FG% and 22.2 3P%). Bane suffered from a sore lower back after Game 1. It seems that that is what caused his production drops. But with the extra days of rest I believe Bane has had some downtime and may be feeling a little healthier. The Grizzlies will also need Bane’s perimeter production, as Dillon Brooks has been suspended. — Snellings
Your best option: Klay ThompsonOver 3.5 3-pointers Thompson’s shot has been a struggle so far in this series, as Moody mentioned. As he looked tired, I think he will be able to benefit from the extra rest. Thompson can return to his usual shooting style with the Warriors game returning to their home court. — Snellings
Your best option: Ja Morant under 44.5 points+assists+rebounds. Morant is a star, and it’s difficult to lose him. This was especially true after he posted a career-high 47 points in the Grizzlies’ Game 2 victory over the Warriors. Morant is a sensational player and deserves all of the credit. But, like all good things, there must be an end. The slight decline in production is what I mean by “end”. Morant reached this score in all three regular season matchups. This includes two on the road. This is a very elite player, and I doubt he can keep up this level of performance. – Erin Kate Dolan
Analytics edge
BPI projected highest totals
1. Boston Celtics (110.7)
2. Golden State Warriors (106.5)
3. Milwaukee Bucks (106.2)
BPI projected lowest totals
1. Boston Celtics (105.4)
2. Milwaukee Bucks (106.5)
3. Golden State Warriors (106.5)
BPI top win probability (straight up).
1. Boston Celtics (53.1%)
2. Golden State Warriors (55.4%)