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Doug KezirianESPN
This season, the 2022 NFL rookie class presents unique challenges to oddsmakers. Many sportsbooks could lose money if Pittsburgh Steelers Large receiver George Pickens The award for Offensive Rookie-of-the Year.
Pickens was receiving positive reports from training camp. He also scored a touchdown in his preseason opener. There was a steady stream of pickens bets. Pickens’ odds of winning the betting market were initially around 50-1, but they have since moved to 9-1 and 10-1.
Chris Bennett, Circa Sportsbook director of risk explained why Pickens is now considered the favorite after opening at such big odds in the offseason.
Pickens is the most likely to win, so I don’t have Pickens at the lowest odds. Bennett shared that he just wanted to place bets on other men (to reduce Pickens’ risk), and also said that Circa placed a 50-1 bet from a respected bettor.
Caesars Sportsbook. DraftKings. FanDuel. BetMGM. SuperBook. Circa Sports. Pickens was the biggest ticket holder.
John Murray, Superbook’s executive director, said that “I don’t recall this market being all-over the board.” “It doesn’t look like an outstanding offensive rookie class. It’s normal to expect that when there isn’t a high-profile quarterback in the draft, so it’s more open than usual.
This year is different because of it. Pickens was selected with the 52nd overall selection in the second round, after 10 wide receivers. Pittsburgh seems ready to feature Pickens and bettors have noticed.
“He was a five-star recruit so this isn’t a talent problem. Jason Weingarten, professional bettor, told ESPN that he was just as good and as talented as all the other wide receivers at one-third the cost. “It’s wide open because no quarterbacks were selected in the top 15, so it’s not closed.”
Steelers were the very first team to select a quarterback this year in the draft Kenny Pickett With the 20th overall selection. Pickett was the most recent first-round quarterback drafted since 1997. Pickett is Pickens’ new teammate, and also the other player among top two betting favorites to win Offensive Rookie. Pickett is still in the running to beat Mike Tomlin according to Mike Tomlin. Mitch Trubisky This is the beginning gig.
“When handicapping rookie of the year, it is important to first consider the quarterbacks. What QB will get significant playing time or start? It comes down to that,” DraftKings’ sportsbook director Johnny Avello explained to ESPN. Avello said Pickens is DraftKings biggest liability, accounting for nearly 20% of total handle and the largest stake at 40-1 odds.
This is a relatively new way to book these types of awards. Nevada Gaming allowed Super Bowl MVP wagering in 2016. Slowly, books were able to publish lower-profile indexes such as Offensive Rookie Of The Year.
Bennett stated, “I’m the primary responsible for NFL Futures but I also have to be the baseball guy. It’s really difficult to do both really well this season.” “I don’t have the time to follow all of the NFL news and know where (the award odds) should be placed.”
This award has been won four times in a row by a top-six draft pick. 2017 Alvin Kamara Although he was a third rounder, he was the fifth overall running back to win it. In the last 20 seasons, only three wide receivers were named Offensive Rookies of the Year.
“As with any rookie-award futures, there may be some drastic odds adjustments once we see these athletes on the field Week One and adjust for their performances,” Adam Pullen of Caesars Sportsbook, told ESPN.
Sportsbooks offer a wide range of options to help bettors compete with other operators in an expanding legalization. However, this can make them vulnerable.
“As we get more involved and try different things, it becomes difficult to keep up with everything. While you’ll find weak points, it is still important to cash the ticket. Avello explained that while getting value can be one thing, winning the bet is another.
Two rookies opened at 100-1 odds, but now are in the 20-1 range. Sportsbooks are also handling liability. Wideout Romeo Doubs is a potential target for Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay Packers’ offense. Running back Brian Robinson Jr. could also be a key player for the Houston Texans.