Sometimes, the measure for a move is as much about how big the hole is that you filled with the person who fills it.
It is the same for the Philadelphia PhilliesThe following Wednesday, the two of them agreed to a reported four-year, $79 million deal With a free-agent slugger Kyle Schwarber.
It’s a lot for a team that will likely continue to skirt luxury tax thresholds over the years. The team is also subject to thresholds. expected to adhere toBudgeting for the future season is a good idea. The new CBA has helped the Phillies in their quest to reach the playoffs for more than a decade.
There are two things to consider. First, there is the higher tax thresholds. The $230 million cutoff for 2022 will be the highest. Cot’s contracts revealed that the Phillies had $37.6million less than the threshold before signing the deal to Schwarber. Schwarber will therefore eat slightly more than half of that amount.
Was it worth the effort?
For the Phillies to be in contention, they needed to address left field. Fangraphs reports that Philly’s anticipated left fielders are a mix of part-timers such as Adam Haseley, Luke WilliamsAnd Mickey Moniak• Projected to finish 0.3 victories below replacement, the lowest figure by a wide margin in the majors.
Schwarber, who just finished his best season, had a WAR forecast at Fangraphs of 3.1. Although some of his at-bats may come as a DH or DH, that’s still a significant upgrade for a team entering Offseason Part II at a level where it will have to compete with the Giants and Cardinals for the last playoff spot.
It would take the sixth spot. This is why the Phillies were among the winners of CBA. Schwarber’s addition has boosted my forecast for Phillies by almost three wins. This not only puts them ahead of Giants and Cardinals but also places them within striking distance from the Braves/Mets in the NL East. This is it for now.
(The Reds, on the other hand, took themselves out of this mix. This is not a topic we want to get into too much. Schwarber is an Ohioan who would have placed the Reds in the thick, had he been added to the Cincinnati roster prior to the breakup. Shame! Shame!)
The Phillies still have some money to play with. How should this money be used?
Given the current numbers, it seems unlikely that Phillies could make a serious offer on any remaining shortstop. Trevor StoryOder Carlos Correa. The team is highly regarded by rookie-to-be Bryson Stett. If they’re correct about him, GM Dave Dombrowski won’t be surprised that he was able to restrain himself. Bryce Harper (and Schwarber) pal Kris BryantThis is probably because it doesn’t make sense financially at this time.
The Phillies will probably be able to manage third base. Alec BohmConsistency is the key to success Didi GregoriusAround to support all the infielders and also be part of the DH team. Dombrowski and the DH team reached an agreement to bring back Odubel HerreraTo do the heavy lifting in the center field.
Schwarber will also need a righty to protect him against lefties. But 2021 rookies Williams, and Matt VierlingThey are well-placed to give the righty looks that southpaws need.
The Phillies’ position group is growing nicely. Outfielder Ramon Laureano, who is moving at a rapid rate, stands out as a shining light and would be a great fit for the Phillies. His salary is within the Phillies’ budget, but there will likely be plenty of competition.
Although things are improving, the Phillies could still use one more bat. It almost doesn’t matter which position profile is offered by the player offering the bat. Dombrowski’s best option is to try and find low-cost pitching depth.
These goals are all modest enough to not have the same impact on the bottom line as Schwarber’s signing. The Phillies are a 90-win team, which is a great foundation for a season.
We have one remaining question: is this an overpay? Schwarber has had between two to three fWAR or slightly more in each of the three last regular seasons. He is now 29 and likely to enter his post-prime years. However, Schwarber is also the type of player whose stick will keep its value as he ages. His two best traits are power on contact and elite plate discipline.
The contract will still be valid if Schwarber does the same thing he has been doing.
Worst-case Schwarber is a.220-ish batter at the back end. However, he has plus walks and plus hits. Schwarber has experienced injury problems, so the Phillies must hope that Schwarber’s DH spot will allow him to stay on the field for at least the next four years. The back end of this deal will be much easier because the National League has expanded the DH rule, which is the third reason the Phillies won the CBA.
Schwarber has so many holes in his game that $19.8million per year seems excessive, but things worked out for him and he got free agency. He enjoyed a great 2021 season in Washington and Boston. He was great in the playoffs. He was available at a time when many NL teams were looking for a long-term DH. Schwarber is doing well, and the Phillies are grateful.