It seemed like everybody was working all weekend in baseball. Late Friday night, the last big dominoes on this year’s free-agent market crashed in a final sprint. Nick CastellanosLanding with the Phillies Carlos Correa stunningly signing with the TwinsAnd, finally, the last shortstop standing. Trevor StoryA deal is made with Boston Red Sox.
Story and his agents seemed to have taken inspiration from some of the major shortstop deals during the extended offseason. These are the basic terms of this deal six years, $140 millionESPN’s Jeff Passan confirms that they are identical to the free-agent contract of a shortstop Javier BaezAlthough he signed with the Tigers in the first year of his deal, the structure is quite different. Baez may opt out of his contract after the second year, but Story can’t until after the fourth. But, the Red Sox have the option to add a seventh year to their contract. This would make it worth $160 million unless Boston buys out the seventh year for $5million. That’s it?
In the wake of Correa’s deal to the Twins, the rumor machine had the Astros leading the Story sweepstakes. Houston was left asking the question, “Why didn’t you just give Correa that contract?” Now the Jeremy PenaHouston shortstops are the first to enter this new era.
Red Sox fans don’t have to worry about such things as they are able to significantly increase their depth chart and safeguard themselves against long-term shortstop departures. Xander BogaertsThe only exception is Story, who will be able to opt out of the 2022 season. This has been widely expected. ESPN’s Marly Riva reports that Story will be playing second base in Boston and Bogaerts at shortstop.
This was a positive outcome for the Red Sox and definitely not for Story. Story had to be feeling anxious with spring training games already underway and the beginning of the regular season on the horizon.
This is the first grade in this analysis: Fminus. This is not for the Red Sox but for Story’s former team, the Colorado Rockies. The trading of Nolan ArenadoLast spring was marred by the failure to trade Story at the last season’s deadline. This led to the bizarre and more recent decision to give. Kris BryantThe Rockies have been bungling every step of the process, signing a $182 million seven-year deal. It’s quite confusing.
We have now got that out of our system. Let’s get to the good part.
Story was 23 when he made his debut in the majors. Bogaerts was only 22 at the time, but Story is 29. They were born approximately six weeks apart, in 1992. In fWAR, the pair rank second (Bogaerts 22.0) while Story is sixth (Story 18.5). Both have approached it differently. Bogaerts has provided more value at the plate, while Story has been a better defender and more productive baserunner. Bogaerts offensive game is more contact-oriented than Story’s, and Story’s has more isolated power.
Story will first have to show his new fans that he isn’t a Coors Field creature. Story hasn’t put up the usual extreme home-road splits so many Rockies players. His home OPS for his career is.972, while it’s.752 on road.
Here are some things to remember if the Red Sox is a scary team. Let’s first consider Story’s floor OPS of.752. His OPS aggregate for second basemen was.731, which is still within the average range. If the history of elite Coors Field players is any indication, it’s that home road splits don’t give a good idea of what a hitter will do when he moves on to another club.
Before last season, Arenado’s career OPS was.793. It was.885 during his first season in St. Louis. D.J. D.J. Each player is different so it’s impossible to predict if Story will follow the same path. One thing is certain, even though we don’t know why, is that Coors Field doesn’t produce big numbers for the hitters who call it their home. It also has a depressing effect on road numbers for these same hitters.
Fenway Park doesn’t seem to be a bad place for a right handed power hitter. Last season, his launch angle ranked 23rd out of qualified batters. Story is a hard hitting hitter, and that can play anywhere. This is especially true if he can overcome the difficulty of adapting to pitches moving away from the altitude. Trumedia says Story achieved a contact rate 73.8 percent at Coors during his career, but it’s only 71.1 on the road. This gap is approximately 4 1/2 times larger than the home-road difference in contact. He will make more contact if he can keep it consistent. We know Story’s response when he makes contact. His WOBA in contact since the start of 2018 ranks 30th among 532 qualified player since the start of 2018. Statcast.
Story has had a consistent rise in strikeouts over his career. This is encouraging. Although his walks rates have remained consistent over the years and his whiff percentages improved due to his increased aggression when he attacks pitches in the zone, Story’s walk rates have not changed. According to baseball-reference.com, Story swung at a career-high 80.1 percent of strikes he saw last season, while he struck out looking in a career-low 17.3 percent of plate appearances.
Story didn’t convert this evolution into higher percentages in 2021 due to a career-low BABIIP of.293. The Red Sox would be happy with their second base production if Story regresses to.336 in his career.
This is the moment for that positional shift. Bogaerts’ defensive metrics are better than Story’s, but Story has been able to put up much higher defense metrics. According to Sports Info Solutions, Story has saved a staggering 116 runs since he entered the majors in 2016. Statcast estimates that the gap is 57 runs. Let’s divide the difference and say it’s 87 runs, spread over 5.37 seasons. This accounts for the 2020 campaign. It works out at 16 runs per season. So, is the Red Sox creating an Alex Rodgriguez/Derek Jeter scenario here? Where the superior defender moves off of the more crucial defensive position in deference to an established hometown star?
Maybe. But I’m fine with this. Bogaerts just this week, for one. reiteratedHis strong preference to stay at shortstop. Although teams are not obligated to their players, stars can opt out after the season.
More than that, the Red Sox have to make sure that the Story they get is the same defensive stalwart he was early in his career. Story had throwing problems in 2021 and ended up on the IL last May due to elbow inflammation. It was clear that this didn’t help and it likely explains how Story fell to minus-7 outs last year after an average of plus-12 during the three previous seasons. Story made a record 14 errors. 11 of them were throws. His defensive runs saved showed that he was still at +9, so there is no reason for concern about his glove being a problem. Is it the arm? We’ll see. He might just be in need of a few shorter throws at the keystone.
Another thing to note about the injury is Story’s performance at the plate. Story suffered a miserably poor performance around the time Story was injured. This gives us another reason for optimism that Story will be able to rebound in that area of the field if he has full health.
Story is now available for purchase. Michael ConfortoRemains in the hunt to find a team. Kiley McDaniel’s original top 25 free agentsSince last winter. Story is also the last member of the prestigious class of six star-level shortstops, who were so well-known in the years before this winter’s free agency.
Thank you to all six for doing well. McDaniel was able to project a $115 million, five-year deal for Story prior to free agency. So, his patience over these last few months seems well-rewarded.
The signing for the Red Sox will spice up an offseason that had been very quiet for the club, which was two games short of the World Series in 2021.
My system increases the Red Sox’s chances of winning by 3.5 games in the first simulation that includes Story on their depth charts. This brings them to an average of 88 wins. This results in a roughly 15% increase in postseason probabilities, up to 62%, and a 5% boost to win the AL East.
The large boost Story provides is not due to Boston’s depth chart for second base prior to the signing. As important, Story’s addition should mean a less prominent offensive role in the future for lesser bats like defense-first centre fielder. Jackie Bradley Jr. Enrique HernandezThe infield will now be less populated and the heavy lifting will be done in the center. Story is a great help to Boston at two positions. Hernandez could play an excellent centerfield and Story will boost the Sox’s chances of winning at the plate.
Boston is still a half-tier below the Blue Jays or Yankees in this division, according to paper. While they are now on the same level with the Rays and have been for a while, Tampa Bay has a habit of outperforming my forecasts. However, this is a much better starting point than last season when the Red Sox were coming off a disappointing last-place finish in Boston. This campaign almost ended in a pennant.
These figures are based on the following: Cots’ ContractsStory’s contract appears likely to propel the Red Sox past the $230 million luxury line. It’s close and money can still move around. It is less important to consider whether this will affect the season’s flexibility if Boston is in contention or needs to upgrade an injured player or make a roster change.
The addition of Story stabilizes Boston’s outlook long-term. The future of Boston’s Infield Configuration is unknown. After Bogaerts’ departure, Story could be moved back to shortstop. Bogaerts may stay, but could move over to the third base or bump Rafael Devers elsewhere. Bogaerts might be persuaded to switch with Story. All three players could be kept where they are for many years. The important thing is that Boston has a greater pool of high-quality talent.
There are risks involved in signing up for Story. There are the risk factors. There are also the throwing concerns. There is also the ever-worrisome Coors Field Effect. These risks are why I can’t give the Red Sox an A, or an A-. But it doesn’t stop me from loving the move.
While Conforto can make an impact for some teams, Story’s deal to Boston effectively ends the free agent season. It is exciting. Opening Day is closer than ever, after an offseason that seemed like it would never end.