It’s been almost a month since the MLB offseasonWe are still waiting for the first big splash.
We are still waiting for the movement to pick-up to enter next week’s Winter Meetings in San Diego. So we asked experts to weigh in on their thoughts about the remainder of the offseason.
Where will they go? Aaron Judge sign? Who will sign four of the top shortstops in the world? Which ace is more likely to leave his current team than the other? What about the major names in the trade markets?
We surveyed a dozen MLB executives from both leagues to find out where free-agent landings are and what the chances of them being moved in trades. Voters were guaranteed anonymity and given the opportunity to skip questions that were too personal.
Here’s what they said about their picks and how they voted.
Aaron Judge to receive a package valued at more than $320million? Who will he be signing with?
Yes: 7
No: 4
New York Yankees: 6
Los Angeles Dodgers: 3
San Francisco Giants: 2
Judge is expected to sign with one of three teams according to our voters, but the split is on which team and how much he will get. In any case, Judge will likely be offered a contract worth about $100 million less than the Yankees ($213.5 million) last spring.
“He gambled, and showed up. But I’m going say he comes in slightly below. [$320 million] “and comes home to California,” one voter stated about the Californian native. “Dodgers, Giants. This sounds like Dodgers.
Which shortstop is the best at generating free agency dollars, and how many years?
Trea Turner: 7
Carlos Correa: 5
Four shortstops are highly sought after in this free-agent class. However, our panel believes that Turner and Correa will be the most lucrative. Correa (28), was a popular candidate due to his old age. Turner, 29 won the vote.
“I believe his [Turner’s] One voter stated that skill set is the most important thing. Correa has suffered a few injuries but speed doesn’t slow down, right? While long-term contracts carry risks, I would rather see a guy who can compete with Turner in the running.
Where will the four big shortstops free-agent sign?
Turner: Philadelphia Phillies 6, Dodgers 4, Giants 2.
Correa: Yankees 4 Minnesota Twins 3, Giants 3. Chicago Cubs 1, Boston Red Sox 1
Dansby Swanson: Atlanta Braves 6, Cubs 2, Dodgers2, Giants 2
Xander BogaertsRed Sox 4, Giants 4; Dodgers 2, Yankees 2, Cubs 1
Amazingly, every shortstop was voted for by the Giants. This could have been due to San Francisco’s public stance regarding spending willingness. However, it’s not clear that there’s a consensus about where each shortstop will be signed. The same uncertainty was expressed by executives. last offseason’s shortstop class. It should be a wild winter with musical chairs at this position.
“Dave Dombrowski won’t sit on his hands,” stated one voter who elected Turner to the Phillies. “His owner seems like he is on the same page. It’s almost impossible to imagine how the Phillies do it. don’t Buy one.
“It’s my opinion that the Giants should not get Judge. Where else could they sign up a star player?” another voter replied. If Judge is awarded, then I would not vote for a shortstop. They will, at least until then, get one.
Yes: 4
No: 8
Our voters are majority positive that deGrom will be back with the team he spent his entire career with, despite the fact that the ace tested the free-agent market. If he leaves New York, it would surprise at least one of our respondents to see if they didn’t sign someone else within the next few days.
A voter stated that deGrom would likely leave the Mets but that they will quickly replace him.
Yes: 9
No: 3
Our participants believe that the American League Cy Young Award winner would start the new season alongside someone else than the World Series champions.
“Houston has such a lot of pitching that they can let Verlander go and spend elsewhere (like here). Jose Abreu“
Which pitcher, after Verlander or deGrom, will offer the greatest value? Carlos Rodon, Kodai Senga, Taijuan Walker Or Chris Bassitt?
Bassitt: 5
Rodon: 4
Senga: 2
Senga’s votes speak volumes about his popularity, especially considering that he has yet pitch in the major leagues. After making 31 starts and pitching in 178 innings in 2022, Rodon seems to be in good shape. The vote was won by Bassitt, a right-handed pitcher. While Bassitt has an ERA that is higher than Rodon’s over the past two seasons in both of his seasons, Rodon’s was lower in the most recent season. However, in terms pure value, the righty came out on top.
One voter stated, “I like Rodon in a game for my season, however, long-term, I think Bassitt may be the best value,”
“It is unfair to judge Senga,” another voter stated.
What team (aside from yours) will make a big splash this offseason
Giants: 3
Phillies: 2
Texas Rangers: 2
Dodgers: 2
Red Sox: 1
Yankees: 1
This is an indication of the current state of baseball. With a lot of teams believing they can make it to the playoffs and more importantly win the World Series, and money to do so, the answer gives a good idea of where the game is. Texas may not be the October favorite, but it should be a player who is a hot stove.
“I know that the Rangers did it.” [spent] Last season,” one voter stated, “but they won’t do it again.” Bruce Bochy did not retire to be at home in October. They’ll be adding pitching this year. That’s something you can count on.”
Who will be the most prominent player to be traded this winter?
Sean Murphy, 3
Pablo Lopez, 3
Lucas Giolito, 2
Bryan Reynolds, 2
Fernando Tatis Jr. 1
Corbin Burnes 1
Kolten Wong 1
Some executives answered which executive was more likely to trade and which one would be most famous. The Tatis voter did not explain his decision, but it raised eyebrows.
One evaluator stated, “Lopez would be a great option to trade after the free-agent pitchers have gone off the board.” “With two seasons under control, Miami Should get a nice haul.”
How do MLB’s 2023 rule modifications impact your offseason’s decision making? A lot, some or none?
Not at all: 6
Some: 4
There are many:
The new rules include the elimination of shift most likely to impact roster constructionAccording to the executives who spoke at the meetings of general managers earlier in this month, they believe so. They also admitted that they still don’t have an accurate picture. Before they can understand how it will impact future decisions, teams need to be able to see it all in action.
One voter stated that while you can’t hide non-athletic second basemen, we don’t know how much these changes will impact the running game — both behind and at the bases. “I don’t think that the pitch clock is going to have any impact on long-term roster construction.”