The playoffs are right here! Matchups are set for division spherical, so we’re wanting on the key questions because the postseason continues and groups try and inch one step nearer to the Tremendous Bowl
What’s price from a betting perspective? And that are the most effective performs that can assist you make good wagering selections?
Betting analysts Doug Kezirian, Tyler Fulghum, Joe Fortenbaugh, Anita Marks and Erin Dolan, fantasy and sports activities betting analysts Eric Moody and Andre Snellings, ESPN Stats & Data’s Seth Walder and Soccer Outsiders’ Aaron Schatz supply their insights into the video games with ideas and picks.
Be aware: Traces are from Caesars Sportsbook until in any other case indicated.
The primary matchup of the AFC Division spherical options the top-seeded Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5, 53) internet hosting the fourth-seeded Jacksonville Jaguars at GEHA Area at Arrowhead Stadium. The Jaguars are searching for their first AFC Championship look since 2017 whereas the Chiefs, who’re favorites for his or her 14th straight playoff sport, hope to make their fifth-straight championship sport. Kansas Metropolis gained the primary matchup by 10 factors again in November. How do you want this matchup?
Fortenbaugh: My favourite play is to tease Kansas Metropolis right down to -2.5 and pair them with Philadelphia -1.5, however I would lay the factors with the Chiefs as properly. Everyone knows about Andy Reid’s success when coming off a bye week, however the angle right here is Patrick Mahomes and the high-flying Kansas Metropolis passing assault difficult one of many worst move defenses within the NFL. This can be a dangerous matchup for the Jaguars.
Fulghum: I agree with Joe that teasing the Chiefs right down to -2.5 is a powerful play. The Patrick Mahomes Tax could be very actual. The Chiefs, basically, win 80% of their video games however as a result of the market respects Mahomes a lot as the most effective QB within the NFL, Kansas Metropolis typically has to cowl barely inflated numbers…particularly at residence. I am not fairly snug laying that large quantity with the Jags (8 outright wins as an underdog this season) and Doug Pederson (6-0 ATS as a playoff underdog) on the opposite aspect.
Dolan: I am shying away from the unfold. Jacksonville has gone 7-3 ATS down the stretch and Doug Pederson’s playoff expertise provides the Jags an opportunity to cowl. In the meantime, the Chiefs haven’t been worthwhile towards the quantity this season, sporting a 3-5 ATS mark at residence. If something, check out Kansas Metropolis (-5) within the first half given the turnover debacle for Jacksonville towards the Chargers. Plus, the Chiefs have been up by 13 factors at half in the one assembly this season. This complete continues to rise after opening at 51.5, so I’m the anytime landing scorer market. Jerick McKinnon stands out with at the very least one landing in six straight video games, together with eight receiving and one dashing landing in that stretch. Mahomes ought to mild up this Jags protection via the air. He posted 331 passing yards on them in November. Store round for the most effective strains for his passing yards. Total, it’s going to be a participant prop sport for me.
Schatz: I feel this quantity could be very near what it needs to be but when I wanted to select a aspect, I’d go along with the Chiefs -8.5. The Kansas Metropolis offense is, in fact, the most effective within the league. The Chiefs protection has improved over the course of the 12 months, as much as fifteenth in weighted DVOA which provides much less energy to early video games, and the Jaguars’ protection has not improved (thirtieth in move protection DVOA). The Jaguars even have some particular weaknesses that counsel a Chiefs win; for instance, they’d the worst protection within the league towards tight ends this season and have been the worst protection towards passes within the “quick center” space of the sphere.
Snellings: I like over 53 factors for the sport, the Chiefs over 29.0 factors, plus Patrick Mahomes over 310.5 yards passing and Mahomes over 2.5 passing touchdowns. The Jaguars’ passing protection is suspect, and Mahomes averaged 331.8 passing yards within the final 11 video games exterior of the season finale the place he had a lightweight workload. Mahomes lit the Jaguars up for 331 yards passing and 4 touchdowns of their Week 10 assembly. The Jaguars’ offense is far improved of late with Trevor Lawrence on a run; they’ve averaged 27.2 PPG of their final 5 outings together with the playoffs. They need to put sufficient factors on the board for Mahomes and crew to need to preserve scoring, pushing the Chiefs over their level complete and the general rating over as properly.
Moody: I am gravitating towards the over on this matchup. The Chiefs rank among the many high offenses in a number of statistical classes, together with factors per sport (29.2). Head coach Doug Pederson has had an amazing impression with the Jaguars offense and Trevor Lawrence, averaging 24.2 factors per sport in the course of the common season. It’s a matchup that head coach Andy Reid is salivating over as a result of Jacksonville’s secondary is likely one of the worst within the league. The over has been 4-0 within the Jaguars’ final 4 video games towards profitable groups. This sport will characteristic quite a lot of scoring.
The Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5, 48) and New York Giants meet for the third time this season with Philadelphia having swept the regular-season sequence. The Giants have coated 11 video games as an underdog this season, however one in all their non covers was to the Eagles. Who do you wish to advance to the NFC Championship sport?
Kezirian: The one concern I’ve is the well being of Jalen Hurts. If he seemed sharp in his Week 18 return, then I’d love this play. Philly was favored by 7.5 on the Giants earlier this season and now you get the identical unfold at residence. Given Hurts had one other week off, I’m going to play Philly and hope he seems that a lot better. I additionally doubt the Giants move rush will be capable of dominate the trenches prefer it did towards Minnesota. The Vikings offensive line was banged up however the Eagles have a powerful inside offensive line. I count on a good quantity of factors and Philly to win by at the very least two scores.
Fortenbaugh: I would tease Philadelphia with Kansas Metropolis and would additionally lay the factors with the Birds. Now that the fugazi Vikings have been eradicated from rivalry, it is time to say goodbye to “Minnesota Mild,” aka the Giants. New York is now 10-4-1 in one-score video games this season and enters the nineteenth sport of the season with a +1 level differential. Translation: This workforce is not pretty much as good as individuals suppose. Additional, Philly was laying 7.5 factors at New York again in mid-December. Now they’re at residence, off a bye and nonetheless laying 7.5? I see worth within the Eagles.
Fulghum: I just like the Eagles to beat the Giants for the third time this season and advance to the NFC Championship sport, however I am a bit involved concerning the halted momentum of the workforce heading into the postseason. There’s quite a bit to love concerning the Giants then again. They’re taking part in with home cash. They’re terribly well-coached. They’re 14-4 ATS this season, together with 11-2 ATS within the underdog position. That is workforce is legit with reference to exceeding market expectation, and I feel they accomplish that once more on this sport with a aggressive effort and a canopy.
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Why Joe Fortenbaugh is betting the Eagles giving the factors
Joe Fortenbaugh explains why he takes the Eagles over the Giants.
Schatz: I have been driving the Philadelphia Eagles bandwagon because the preseason and I am not going to cease now, however I truly suppose Giants +7.5 makes for a greater unfold decide. The Eagles have declined a bit in current weeks. Their move protection, for instance, ranked first in DVOA in Weeks 1-9 however simply 14th in Weeks 10-18. On the similar time, the Giants’ passing sport is trending within the different course: fifteenth via Week 9, then fifth within the league from Week 10 via the wild-card spherical. The Eagles’ passing sport has additionally declined in current weeks, even for those who take away the Gardner Minshew video games — however this isn’t matched by an identical enchancment from the Giants protection. The Giants protection is terrible, significantly towards the run, and has been all 12 months. This sport options the No. 1 run offense DVOA (Eagles) and the No. 32 run protection DVOA (Giants). That is a giant motive why I feel the Eagles will take the victory… however the quietly profitable Giants passing sport might preserve it nearer than anticipated.
Walder: I am mildly cautious of Jalen Hurts’ well being, however suppose the Eagles are the far, far superior workforce basically. Because of this, I am an alternate line like Eagles -16 at +213: in a world the place Hurts is uninhibited, I like Philadelphia’s possibilities to roll. I simply can’t recover from the standard of the Eagles roster. My current train of rating the 100 most precious gamers within the NFL t featured 12 members of the Eagles. Twelve! Philadelphia has the sting at quarterback, offensive weapons, secondary and within the trenches on either side of the ball. The Giants have had a pleasant run however I feel it could finish ugly to a far superior workforce
Moody: Being within the NFC East, the Giants and Eagles are very conversant in each other. As the highest seed within the NFC, Philadelphia has quite a lot of strain on them coming into this sport and Jalen Hurts is not 100% resulting from a shoulder damage. Having stated that, the Giants have performed properly on the highway. New York is 10-1 towards the unfold in its final 11 highway playoff video games. Regardless of what individuals suppose, the Giants will preserve this sport shut. New York was solely defeated by six factors by the Eagles of their most up-to-date assembly.
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The Buffalo Bills (-5,48) and Cincinnati Bengals meet to determine who goes to the AFC Championship. The Bengals led 7-3 within the first quarter of their Week 17 matchup earlier than the sport was canceled due Demar Hamlin’s damage. Each groups are coming off shut wins (did not cowl) within the Wild Card spherical. Who do you want to return out on high?
Fulghum: I am on the report saying I imagine the Bengals are the superior soccer workforce at this level within the season to Buffalo. In case you wager by adhering to how the markets transfer, the “sharp” aspect or the “proper” aspect on this matchup is Buffalo. They opened as a 4-point favourite and cash moved {that a} full level their approach by mid-week. That is going to be the cussed IKBTY – I Know Higher Than You (trademark pending) — guess on my card for the Divisional Spherical. I will take the factors with Cincinnati and sprinkle somewhat on the ML upset. In case you suppose I am loopy, I do not blame you in any respect.
Dolan: Bengals with the factors. The Payments have been guess as much as -5.5 resulting from three six determine wagers coming in at Caesars. The Payments have main turnover points. Josh Allen‘s three turnovers have been was 18 factors for Miami. One might argue that each groups performed poorly within the divisional spherical, failing to cowl but beating again up quarterbacks. I agree with that sentiment, however the Bengals have been worthwhile all season with a 12-5 ATS report. The Bengals have gained 9 straight video games, beating robust opponents together with the Chiefs. That is too many factors for 2 nice groups to go face to face.
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Will the Bengals cowl the unfold towards the Payments?
Tyler Fulghum explains why he likes taking the factors with the Bengals vs. the Payments.
Schatz: Though the Payments completed the 12 months No. 1 in our DVOA rankings at Soccer Outsiders, I am additionally going to take Bengals +5.5. Cincinnati completed fifth in our rankings, and the hole between these groups is smaller than the road for this sport, even after accounting for the offensive line accidents in Cincinnati. I am anticipating to see each groups with lengthy, sustained drives, particularly on condition that each offenses are very robust on third downs and each defenses are stronger on first and second down than on third down.
Snellings: Bengals +5.5. I imagine the Bengals are the most effective workforce within the AFC this season, so getting factors within the matchup is a bonus. However, do not take my phrase for it…the Bengals on this Burrow-led contending period are a workforce that very hardly ever loses by greater than 5 factors. This season, of 18 video games (together with the playoffs), they solely misplaced by greater than three factors as soon as. In truth, you’ll be able to prolong again to the later a part of final season, and Bengals +5.5 could be 26-1 of their final 27 video games (together with 5-0 within the playoffs).
Moody: I am taking the Bengals and the factors. Final week, it was shocking to see the Payments barely win towards a Dolphins workforce with their third string quarterback. Of their final six playoff video games, the Bengals are 4-1-1. Cincinnati is a really gifted workforce that matches up properly offensively and defensively with the Payments. The Bengals might outright win this sport, however I imagine it should shut.
The ultimate matchup of Divisional Spherical weekend is a rematch of final 12 months’s Wild Card sport which noticed the 49ers win. Each groups are coming off simple covers final week and San Francisco opened as a slight favourite over Dallas. Can Brock Purdy and the 49ers preserve rolling or will the Cowboys attain the NFC Championship for the primary time since 1995.
Fortenbaugh: I am laying it with San Francisco. They have two further days of relaxation, home-field benefit, a greater protection and the power to get their elite pass-catching unit into extensive open house. Did you see what number of extensive receivers have been operating free within the Seattle sport? Brock Purdy does not must be Joe Montana. He simply must play clear soccer.
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Why you must take the 49ers to cowl
Doug Kezirian explains why he believes San Francisco will cowl towards Dallas.
Fulghum: I am additionally on report saying San Francisco is the most effective soccer workforce in the complete NFL. I will lay the factors with the 49ers. The 48-hour relaxation benefit, the dominant protection, the totally wholesome and intensely dynamic playmakers on offense…this workforce is totally stacked. Dallas is, admittedly, harmful. Dak Prescott performed wonderful soccer towards Tampa and Micah Parsons can wreck any sport. The 49ers, although, are a superior roster with a superior scheme on offense. So long as they don’t damage themselves, they need to be capable of overwhelm Dallas like they’ve every of their final 11 opponents.
Schatz: San Francisco is the No. 1 workforce in weighted DVOA, which lowers the worth of earlier video games to get a greater concept of how groups are taking part in now. The Cowboys rank seventh in that very same metric. However particularly, have a look at the place the groups are trending in simply the previous few weeks. The 49ers offense ranks No. 1 in move DVOA since Brock Purdy took over at quarterback in Week 13. In the meantime, the Cowboys move protection was third within the league in Weeks 1-9 however ranks solely sixteenth if we have a look at Weeks 10-19. (In case you flip to the opposite aspect, each the 49ers move protection and the Cowboys move offense have improved in current weeks.) Each groups rank within the high 5 in Go Rush Win Charge, and so I count on issues are going to get tougher on these quarterbacks underneath strain. When that occurs, I’ve extra belief within the 49ers to ensure Brock Purdy can discover open receivers. Add all of it up, and I am on 49ers -3.5.
Moody: I am drawn to the whole on this matchup. The 49ers offense are mauling their opponents. There was just one sport since Week 12 when San Francisco failed to attain 33 factors or extra. Neither the 49ers nor the Cowboys lack offensive playmakers. In San Francisco’s final 4 video games, the over is 4-0, whereas in Dallas’ final six video games ATS following a win, the over is 5-1.
Marks: I will purchase the 49ers right down to -3. Give me Kyle Shanahan over Mike McCarthy seven days every week, and twice on Sunday night time! The 49ers are rested (3 further days), but — the Cowboys need to journey for his or her 4th straight highway sport (5 of final 6). The 49ers have gained 11 straight video games by a degree differential of (+179) — with Brock Purdy on the helm for 7 of them. Dak Prescott seemed good towards the Bucs — however the 49ers are a wholly totally different animal. The Bucs rank twenty sixth within the NFL in turnover charge whereas the 49ers rank third greatest! Dak tosses two picks on this sport — the Cowboys lose — and Dallas followers spend the complete offseason debating if Prescott is the man.
Walder: I am considerably torn on the sport and complete, however I do like 49ers to win the primary quarter (+103). If we have a look at the primary drive effectivity — when coaches typically script performs — these two groups are wildly totally different: the 49ers EPA/P on these opening drives is 0.17, a really robust quantity. The Cowboys are at -0.05. And that is a not a Cooper Rush drawback: Dallas has truly been even worse on its opening drives with Dak Prescott on the sphere.
What’s your favourite participant prop for the NFL Divisional Spherical?
Moody: Travis Kelce over 79.5 receiving yards. It might be shocking if head coach Andy Reid did not attempt to exploit this matchup towards the Jaguars, who’ve had hassle defending tight ends all season. Kelce led the Chiefs with 152 targets and will likely be busy on Saturday afternoon towards Jacksonville. He is averaged 78.7 receiving yards per sport this season.
Marks: Mahomes over 2.5 passing TDs. Mahomes tossed 4 TDs in Week 10 towards the Jags, Jacksonville’s crimson zone protection ranks twenty fourth within the NFL, whereas KC’s Purple Zone TD charge is second greatest at 70%.
Fulghum: Ezekiel Elliott UNDER 34.5 dashing yards Elliott is not the lead again in Dallas and the Cowboys employees (neatly) realizes it. Since their Week 9 bye, Tony Pollard has out-snapped Elliott in six of the eight video games they’ve performed collectively — together with the Wild Card win in Tampa. Elliott is averaging a meager 2.6 YPC over his final 72 dashing makes an attempt overlaying 5 video games. Not solely is Dallas a highway underdog in peril of falling right into a adverse sport script, however the 49ers additionally boast the league’s greatest run protection. That is an especially opposed setting for Zeke to be productive and environment friendly.
Schatz: I need to go along with Travis Kelce’s over so badly. The Jaguars are horrible towards tight ends. However 79.5 yards with -135 odds is an excessive amount of. As a substitute, let’s take Jaguars operating again Travis Etienne Jr. over 17.5 receiving yards. The Chiefs ranks twenty eighth in DVOA towards operating backs within the passing sport and ranked thirty first towards passes within the quick center of the sphere. Let’s have a look at some Texas routes and halfback selection, not simply dumpoffs and screens. Etienne has at the very least 17 receiving yards in 4 of his final 5 video games and caught three passes for 28 yards when these groups performed in Week 10.
Snellings: Christian McCaffrey over 105.5 complete rush + receiving yards. McCaffrey is an electrical again that’s high-usage in each the operating and passing sport for the 49ers. He is central to all they do. Not together with the final sport of the common season, McCaffrey has at the very least 136 complete yards in 5 of his final six video games.
What’s your greatest guess for the NFL Division Spherical?
Marks: Goedert over 47.5 rec yards. The Giants are probably the most blitz completely happy groups – which leaves them weak in different areas. Defending TEs is one in all them, and so they allowed TJ Hockenson to submit 129 yards final week. The GMen are thirty first in cowl charge, and have allowed 608 YAC to the place.
Schatz: 49ers -3.5 is my greatest guess. I simply suppose the 49ers are too good on either side of the ball proper now. Some workforce would possibly lastly determine the best way to cowl these 49ers receivers so they don’t seem to be so extensive open. I do not suppose the Cowboys are going to be that workforce.
Walder: Frank Clark over 0.25 sacks (+200 at FanDuel). Clark was respectable in 2022: simply 5.0 sacks however a 16% move rush win charge at edge — proper about common for a starter on the place. The important thing to discovering worth at this value – and my sack mannequin makes the correct quantity +130 – is the unfold. The Chiefs being 8.5-point favorites means they’re extra more likely to be forward — and when opposing offenses are behind, they’re compelled into extra frequent must-pass conditions and into taking larger dangers. That is when sacks occur.