We are almost one year away from the 2023 NFL draftAnd 285 games The draft order will be determined by the circumstances that lie ahead. It is possible for anything to happen. The top 10 positions won’t be known until Week 18, and even then, anything can happen.
Using our projections, we still projected how the draft order would play out in the first 10 picks. ESPN Football Power IndexEach team’s expected draft slot is given by. A data analyst explains why each team is expected to be selected early. Our NFL Nation reporters then discuss how each team can exceed these expectations and avoid disappointing the league.
Which teams are likely to be selected as the top draft picks? Jaguars who held the No. The Jaguars have held the No. What teams are likely to surprise us in 2022? Let’s take an in-depth look at the teams heading towards another early Round 1 selection.
Chance at No. 1 pick: 13.6%
Chance at the top 10: 68.4%
Why are they here? Jets are a positive team. They have Garrett Wilson, Corey Davis Elijah Moore At the receiver Ahmad Gardner D.J. Reed The cornerback spots will be secured. Carl Lawson It is back as an edge rusher. They also have a second-year quarterback who could be a star. Zach Wilson. Wilson’s is the most unlikely to be a success. ESPN’s FPI bets that most of it won’t. — Walder
This is how they surpass this projection The Jets added playmaking talent to both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball with free agency and the draft. Breece Hall Safety and security Jordan Whitehead. They should be able to make game-changing plays with improved team speed, which was a rarity in 2021. The Jets were 31st in takeaways, and 20th in explosive offense plays (runs of 10+ yards or passes of 20+ yards). — Rich Cimini
Chance at No. 1 pick: 13.7%
Chance at the top 10: 67.9%
Why are they here? The Bears are similar to the Jets, but have less talent around their quarterback. Like Wilson of the Jets, so too with the Bears. Justin Fields After a disappointing first season, he must take a significant step forward in his second year. Chicago’s new coaching staff adds uncertainty to the forecast. In this instance, it’s a positive thing. — Walder
This is how they surpass this projection The Bears still have over $20 million in cap space, and could use that money to sign a veteran offensive lineman (perhaps one to play right guard) as well as another wide receiver. Fields should be able to play to his strengths in Chicago’s offense. But, Fields won’t grow unless the environment around him improves. It will be a wise investment for the Bears to add a few players before the start, as they build for the future. Courtney Cronin
Chance at No. 1 pick: 11.4%
Chance at the top 10: 64.1%
Why are they here? While the defense roster is empty, quarterback Davis Mills Houston exceeded expectations when he was a rookie. It’s fair to call Houston’s short-term position at quarterback weak. The Texans also have a difficult schedule. — Walder
This is how they surpass this projection Houston’s defense showed improvement under Lovie Smith (defensive coordinator), and he could be the reason that the Texans are able to surpass expectations this season. Smith was promoted to the role of head coach and the No. 3 overall pick on cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. Smith is adamant about the importance of takingaways in the defensive backs’ room. Adding a cornerback star could be a huge help. — Sarah Barshop
Chance at No. 1 pick: 9.3%
Chance at the top 10: 60.0%
They are here for a reason: Our FPI is slightly more bullish. Trevor LawrenceWilson, Fields and Mills are not predicting a better future for’s future. Trey Lance (San Francisco). The model predicts that Lawrence will again be below-average signal-caller this season, despite the disappointment of Jacksonville’s quarterback in 2021. The rest of the roster, even with a massive free-agent spending spree has yet to find high-end talent. — Walder
This is how they surpass this projection A functioning and normal coaching staff can make a big difference. It is difficult to quantify the impact of Urban Meyer’s dysfunction on the team. However, it was certainly bad for Lawrence. Adding playmakers Christian Kirk, Zay Jones Evan Engram This will increase the offensive’s output, which averaged 13.8 points per match last season. The defense also added three players in free agency, and two more through the draft, which was highlighted by No. 1 pick Travon Walker. Only two of the last remaining starters from the 2020 defense are available. — Michael DiRocco
Chance at No. 1 pick: 8.6%
Chance at the top 10: 56.6%
Why are they here? Two years after no start, ESPN’s FPI is now the quarterback Marcus Mariota Atlanta’s offense will be affected. That’s fair. There’s not much to be dragged down. Tight end Kyle Pitts This is the only established star on this side of the ball. Cornerback defense is a great option. A.J. Terrell Defensive tackle Grady Jarrett Although he is leading the charge, having the FPI’s worst offense in football is too much. — Walder
This is how they surpass this projection The Falcons’ quarterback situation is one of the most suspect in the league. Veteran Mariota and rookie Desmond Ridder Start. But, if you are a rookie Drake London (wide receiver) Tyler Allgeier If (running back), play well, it may open up opportunities for Arthur Smith, second-year coach, to change his playcalling style and allow him to be more creative on offense. There is the possibility of a stronger pass rush. Again, rookie edge rushers will be needed by the Falcons. Arnold Ebiketie DeAngelo Malone Atlanta might be able at most to meet or exceed its expectations. — Michael Rothstein
Chance at No. 1 pick: 6.5%
Chance at the top 10: 53.5%
They are here for a reason: FPI models consider the T.J. WattThe Steelers defense was ranked fifth in the league by the Steelers, but good defense is only half the battle. All the options at quarterback are out of reach. Mitch Trubisky, Kenny Pickett Oder Mason Rudolph They are expected to be a top performer in 2022. FPI, ESPN’s sports information provider, considers the first two the best choices and are roughly equal in the short-term. — Walder
This is how they surpass this projection Coach Mike Tomlin doesn’t do losing seasons. Tomlin never lost a season in his 15-year tenure as Steelers’ Head Coach. Remember when Ben Roethlisberger died, and Tomlin put Rudolph Hodges and Devlin Hodges at center. He didn’t lose that game, too. It won’t all be pretty in Pittsburgh. But don’t let that stop Tomlin’s team from being a force to be reckoned with — especially since he has the reigning Defensive player of the year and a promising star in running back Najee Harris His roster. — Brooke Pryor
Chance at No. 1 pick: 5.5%
Chance at the top 10: 48.0%
They are here for a reason: Some talent is scattered around the roster, namely Christian McCaffrey DJ Moore On offense, and Brian Burns Jeremy Chinn On defense, but not enough to compensate for the fact neither Sam Darnold nor Matt Corral There is much short-term hope. — Walder
This is how they surpass this projection The Panthers have significantly increased their roster through free agency and the draft, despite not having a quarterback. With an overhaul that also included two former head coaches (Offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo & Secondary coach Steve Wilks), they more than doubled their NFL experience in coaching. McCaffrey has been out for 23 of the 33 team’s games. If McCaffrey can stay healthy, the rebuilt offensive line can provide protection. Carolina will be better, regardless of whether Darnold, rookie Corral and anyone else is playing quarterback. — David Newton
Chance at No. 1 pick: 4.1%
Chance at the top 10: 42.0%
Why are they here? ESPN’s FPI is bullish about the Lions. This is why they have only managed to sneak onto this list after picking No. 2. Jared Goff Although his projections aren’t stellar, they believe he will be better than most first- and second-year quarterbacks. This is a positive for Detroit, which ranks high among the others on this list in terms of projections and rankings. However, this is about Detroit’s potential offensively. Our FPI projects Detroit as having the league’s worst defense. — Walder
This is how they surpass this projection The Lions’ coaching team will have more experience. Sometimes it felt like Dan Campbell was still learning the ropes in handling certain in-game situations. He also took over playcalling duties from Anthony Lynn in Week 10. However, Detroit now has Ben Johnson, an offensive coordinator. It also added better offensive players around Goff like wide receiver DJ Chark Jr. Eric Woodyard
Chance at No. 1 pick: 3.4%
Chance at the top 10: 42.2%
They are here for a reason: Projections are lower Drew Lock He’s sandwiched between Sam Darnold, and Malik Willis In the model’s quarterback rankings — that’s a hard starting place and a big downgrade Russell WilsonTo put it simply, Seattle is home to a strong skill-position group. This is something that is well worth it. — Walder
This is how they surpass this projection It was not how it looked in the trade Wilson and cut. Bobby WagnerHowever, the Seahawks have not embarked on a full-fledged rebuild. The Seahawks still have a strong roster, even with one of the most difficult quarterback rooms in the NFL. With its new defense and some younger, more agile players, it’s reasonable to believe that Seattle could win seven games with below-average quarterback play by either Lock or. Geno Smith. — Brady Henderson
Chance at No. 1 pick: 2.8%
Chance at the top 10: 37.7%
Why are they here? Daniel Jones Although he was a disappointing sixth-overall selection, he still has upside. The Giants have potential in their offensive line and wide receiver group, and with an offensive-minded head coach, they should improve on their 30th-ranked offense efficiency last year. FPI, ESPN’s football information service, believes that the Giants will still be below-average (23rd offense, 27th defense) in both areas. — Walder
This is how they surpass this projection Brian Daboll’s offense could be better than expected. They don’t lack talent. Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay Kadarius Toney Among the offensive stars. The Giants also have two top-10 tackles. It is not unreasonable to believe Jones will make a significant improvement under Daboll’s offensive system and that the Giants could win, despite recent struggles. — Jordan Raanan