NFL Super Bowl betting tips

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Cincinnati was 125-1 to win the Super Bowl entering the season, making them just the second team 100-1 or longer to reach the Super Bowl in the past 40 seasons (1999 St. Louis: 150-1), according to SportsOddsHistory.com. It was one the five teams that had 100-1 odds to win the Super Bowl. The other four held the top four draft picks.Houston, Detroit, Jacksonville, New York Jets).

The Super Bowl has been 7-2 for underdogs with at least 3 points and 8-1 ATS for them since 2007. In that time, underdogs with at least 3.5 points are 6-0 and 5-1 ATS in the Super Bowl. Underdogs with at least three points have been 12-3 ATS since 2001 (9-6 in total).

Cincinnati is 7-0 against the spread and 6-1 outright when it comes to being an underdog by at least three points in this season’s season. This includes 6-0 outright, ATS, and 6-0. Joe Burrow starts. Burrow, an underdog of at most three points (7-5-1 in the final) is currently 11-2 ATS.

Burrow is 7-0 in ATS in postseason matches in his college career, which includes bowl contests and conference title games. He is now 3-0 ATS and outright during his postseason career. He was also 4-1 ATS and Outright during his college bowl and conference championship game play, and was 2-0 ATS and outright for the playoff.

Historical Season Odds

Cincinnati entered the season 125-1 to win the Super Bowl, making it the largest preseason long shot to reach the big game since 1999 St. Louis according to SportsOddsHistory.com. These are the only two teams that have had 100-1 preseason odds of reaching the Super Bowl.

Since the Greatest Show on Turf won the title in January 2000, 100-1 long shots for preseason titles have gone 0-5 at championship rounds in professional football and baseball, as well as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

Cincinnati was one five teams to have at least 100-1 odds of entering the season. The top four draft picks were held by the other four teams.

After losing in Week 2, Cincinnati’s odds reached 150-1 Chicago. Los Angeles opened at 14-1, and it did not exceed that number for the remainder.

Super Bowl history

  • The Super Bowl has been 7-2 for underdogs with at least 3 points and 8-1 ATS for them since 2007. In that time, underdogs with at least 3.5 points are 6-0 and 5-1 ATS in the Super Bowl. Underdogs with at least three points have been 12-3 ATS since 2001 (9-6 in total).

  • The Underdogs are currently 8-6 and 9-5 ATS in the last 14 Super Bowls. They are 6-4 ATS and 6-4 in the past 10 seasons.

  • This year ends a five-year run in which the AFC team was favored in Super Bowl. The Super Bowl is the fourth consecutive year that the NFC team has been favored (2015, 2012 and 2010). AFC teams have been 5-1-2 ATS since 1995 when they are trying to get points in Super Bowl (or 4-4 overall). Two previous AFC teams that were considered underdogs won the Super Bowl: Denver +5.5 over Carolina in Feb 2016, and Baltimore +4 against San Francisco February 2013.

  • All three Super Bowls before this one have been below the total.

  • Los Angeles is 1-3 overall and 0-3-1 at-large in the Super Bowl. Cincinnati is 0-2 and 1-1 in the Super Bowl.

  • The Super Bowl MVP Favorite has been the winner three times in the last 10 seasons.

2021 Postseason Notes

  • Favorites won the wild-card round. Underdogs went 5-1 ATS and 4-2 in the playoff rounds. The overall record for underdogs is 6-6 ATS, and 5-7 in the postseason. If the Super Bowl’s underdog wins, the six straight wins by underdogs will tie the record for most postseason victories in Super Bowl history (done last in 1970 four times). The five divisional round wins would tie 1970 as the most in Super Bowl history.

  • The underdogs won 105 games this season. This is one win less than in the Super Bowl era. In 2006, the underdogs won 106-161 straight.

  • The Unders are 8-4 in this postseason. The Unders are currently at 54.1% this season (152-129-3), the highest rate since 1991.

Los Angeles RamsTrends

  • Los Angeles is currently 10-10 against the spread and 6-3 against the spread in its nine previous games. Rams games are 10-9-1 for overs this season.

  • Los Angeles failed in the conference championship match. Los Angeles was not able to cover the conference championship game. Teams who failed to do so are 3-8-1 ATS at Super Bowl, and 3-9 in total.

  • Los Angeles is currently 2-7 ATS against AFC team in the last two seasons (1-4 at this time).

  • Los Angeles has seen overs and unders alternate in the past 11 games (last was under).

Cincinnati BengalsTrends

  • Cincinnati is currently 13-7 ATS. This season, the unders are 11-8-1.

  • Burrow is 3-0 outright and ATS in his NFL postseason career. Burrow was also 4-0 and outright during his college career in bowl and conference championship games. He was even 2-0 ATS in the College Football Playoff.

  • Cincinnati is 7-1 ATS and 6-1 in the outright as an underdog for at least three points this year, including 6-0 outright. Burrow also starts when Cincinnati starts. Burrow is 11-2 in his career as an Underdog of at Least Three Points (7-5-1 Outright).

  • Cincinnati has now covered seven consecutive games and is tied for third in Super Bowl history. The Bengals are ninth team to be entered the Super Bowl with at least seven games of cover streak. The Super Bowl’s previous eight teams were 5-3 overall and 4-2 ATS.

  • The total has been below the sum in Cincinnati’s four previous games.

  • Cincinnati is 8-2 in ATS and 7-3 overall.

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