NFL Week 12 betting tips

Joe MixonHis early Week 11 exit kept him from reaching the over. Samaje Perine The team picked up the pieces and was therefore 15% more in ESPN fantasy leagues heading into Saturday. It was disappointing but nothing compared with the gut punch. Dameon Pierce delivered. Pierce's yardage has been decreasing steadily over the last three week. Maybe this is a shift from Davis Mills Kyle Allen Although things will turn around, the outlook isn’t nearly as bright as it was just a month ago. He is currently the RB16 according to ESPN consensus rankings.

Let's not dwell on the negative, it is time to be grateful!

It's a great feeling to have three of my five props in Week 11. Let's work together to achieve perfection this week.

ESPN's metrics database can be used with the assistance of stats ace Kyle SoppeI'm here for you to win in fantasy as well as at the books.


NFL Week 12 betting tipsNFL Week 12 betting tipsBuffalo Bills (-9.5, 54.5), at Detroit Lions
Thursday, 12:30 p.m. ET, Ford Field Detroit


NFL Week 12 betting tips

Devin Singletary UNDER 55 rushing yards

It's a trap. Fantasy managers might be tempted by the matchup and the gamescript to take over Singletary's production potential. Don't give in to temptation.

Buffalo is ranked fourth for overall pass rate. That doesn't change if you use game script. Bills are also first in passing rate when leading. In the rare event that the team commits to the ground play, the running backs rush left more than 35% of time (9th best). The Lions allow the sixth-lowest yards per carry to running backs when they run left (third most for all other carries).

Singletary will not be tapped to take over for the Lions if the game gets out of control. James Cook Last Sunday, he threw 11 totes during an eight point win over Cleveland. Singletary had 7 more carries, but he was faster than Singletary. He also posted the same amount of rushing yards. This performance is enough to keep the rookie in play.


NFL Week 12 betting tipsNFL Week 12 betting tipsBuffalo Bills (-9.5, 54.5), at Detroit Lions
Thursday, 12:30 p.m. ET, Ford Field Detroit


NFL Week 12 betting tips

Pick: Gabe Davis OVER 55 receiving yards

Davis's problem has always been volume. Davis has been averaging over seven targets per contest since Buffalo's Week 7. He managed to capture a record 32% target share last week. Feeding the 23-year old is good for the offense. Davis has crossed the line 13 times in his career. In these 13 games, Buffalo has scored an average 10.7 points more than the opposition. The Bills are 9.5 favorite on Turkey Day,

The spread is indicative both of Buffalo's offense and Detroit's pass defense. The Lions have allowed the sixth highest deep pass rate (55.1%) and the second-highest against aDOT (8.5 yards). Davis also had an average distance of 18 yards in the 13 previous contests where he recorded at least 56 yards. He only needs four balls to reach the over. This is a reasonable feat considering the matchup and Bills' pass-happy approach. He's my WR20 of the week.


NFL Week 12 betting tipsNFL Week 12 betting tipsNew York Giants At Dallas Cowboys (-10, 45.5)
Thursday, 4:30 p.m. ET, AT&T Stadium, Arlington


NFL Week 12 betting tips

Pick: Ezekiel Elliott OVER 46.5 rushing yards

Jerry Jones doesn't care what your fantasy team looks like. It doesn't matter. Tony Pollard Elliot is able to generate 2.8 yards per touch more than Zeke. You can also see that Zeke gained almost twice as many rushing yards with the same number of carries. Elliot is still racking up double-digit carries, with an average of 3.7 more per contest than Pollard.

Elliot's last seven games have seen him record at least 15 carries. It's the same number as the totes he carries since returning from the knee injury that kept him out of a pair contests. Running backs facing Giants have cleared a total of 10 carries in 11 instances this season (and Elliot isn't under that number at any time since 2022). Volume should not be a problem. Efficiency could, however.

However, the 11 mentioned RBs combined average 5.5 yards per carries when they face the G-Men. New York is also 11th in rushing yards allowed between the tackles with 957. This is a game average of almost 96 rushing yards in the middle. Zeke is the one who handles the majority of inside runs. He has recorded 50 more rushes per game than Pollard since last season's start.

Eilliot is capable of rushing for 60 yards and scoring a touchdown between matchup (NYG allows 4.7 YPC) and game script (-10) For fantasy purposes, he's a low-end running back/flex.


NFL Week 12 betting tipsNFL Week 12 betting tipsNew England Patriots At Minnesota Vikings (-2.5, 42.5)
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET, U.S. Bank Stadium Minneapolis


NFL Week 12 betting tips

Pick: Kirk Cousins

Kirk Cousins He has thrown eight interceptions so far in 2022. Three of them were in Week 2 at Philly. It was primetime. The same goes for this one. Cousins was picked off in seven out of eight primetime appearances.

When they are under pressure, quarterbacks will throw picks. New England has the third highest pressure rate in the NFL (33.8%). Cousins was off-target for nearly 28% of pressured pass attempts in New England over the past two years. Talent like Cousins can be a huge plus. Justin Jefferson It could increase confidence of a signal-caller. The Patriots are up for the challenge, however. New England has allowed only 4 fantasy points to opposing wideouts in the last four weeks, and that's with just 4 TDs for the season.

Vegas projects a close game, with the spread at 2.5 points in favor of the Vikings. Cousins, fresh from a poor performance at Dallas is likely to feel squeezed and pressurize. One mistake, and Cousins is over.


NFL Week 12 betting tipsNFL Week 12 betting tipsNew England Patriots At Minnesota Vikings (-2.5, 42.5)
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET, U.S. Bank Stadium Minneapolis


NFL Week 12 betting tips

Pick: T.J. Hockenson MORE THAN 4.5 receptions

Minnesota is known for its fast pace. In fact, the Vikings rank 6th in pass rate, 4th in passrate when trailing and 3rd when trailing by at most a field goal. The spread is 2.5 in Minnesota's favour. This results in Cousins making a lot of passes (37.7 per match, QB4). Cousins may focus on Hockenson to increase the number of opportunities and reduce the lockdown nature New England cornerbacks. Hockenson now runs routes on more than 80% drop backs, a significant increase from the 74.8% he had in Detroit. Hockenson has also drawn at least nine look in every Vikings game since joining them. This makes him the only tight end to have posted 9+ targets in three consecutive games. Over the course of the season, the former Lion has managed a catch rate of 66.2%. The conversion rate is still being assessed by nine more people, and the former Lion closes the week on six grabs.

Follow Liz on twitter @LizLoza_FF

Bonus Pumpkin Pie Prop


NFL Week 12 betting tipsNFL Week 12 betting tipsNew England Patriots At Minnesota Vikings (-2.5, 42.5)
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET, U.S. Bank Stadium Minneapolis


NFL Week 12 betting tips

Pick: Jakobi Meyers OVER 54.5 receiving yards

Meyers isn't a fantasy superstar, but he is a reliable flex option. He has double-digit fantasy point totals in every game except two this year. His numbers are actually up. I don't just mean the TDs. Meyers' YAC for each catch has increased by 25% in 2022. This is crucial to the matchup as Minnesota has surrendered the ninth-most yards following the catch thus far this year.

New England's slotman averages 4.9 catches per game. He has now completed four passes and has so far accumulated 60 yards since the start of 2021. If he can catch five or more balls, that yardage total jumps up to 67.4yards per game. Although it's not perfect (which is why this bonus), a 5-59-0 stat line seems achievable, especially when you consider that almost 65% of New England’s yards come via the air when they enter the week as underdogs.

Follow Liz on twitter @LizLoza_FF


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