After an everyday season the place underdogs had their fifth straight worthwhile yr, Tremendous Wild Card Weekend is upon us. Since 2017, underdogs are 16-8 ATS in Wild Card Weekend regardless of going 1-5 ATS final season. General, underdogs have coated in 61% of all playoff video games since 2017, whereas unders have hit 67 p.c of the time in that span.
All six playoff video games are rematches from the common season. Prior to now 20 seasons when groups have playoff rematches, groups to win and canopy each regular-season assembly are 40-54-3 ATS in playoff rematches. Three of these conferences are divisional rematches. The San Francisco 49ers received and coated each conferences in opposition to the Seattle Seahawks. The Miami Dolphins coated each conferences in opposition to the Buffalo Bills, going 1-1 outright. The highway underdog misplaced however coated each conferences between the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals.
The New York Giants have been the most effective crew within the NFL in opposition to the unfold this season at 13-4. The Giants go to the Minnesota Vikings, who’ve seen 11 video games go over the full this season, the best mark within the NFL. Minnesota was a 4.5-point favourite once they met in Week 16, however that unfold is now down to a few.
Cincinnati had the second-best ATS mark at 12-4. Final season, Cincinnati went 4-0 ATS within the postseason, and it has coated 5 straight playoff video games total. Nevertheless, Baltimore is 17-4-1 ATS as an underdog over the past 5 seasons, together with overlaying an 11.5-point unfold closing line in opposition to Cincinnati final week.
The worst ATS document belonged to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 4-12-1 ATS. It’s the worst cowl proportion by any crew to make the playoffs for the reason that 1974 Miami Dolphins. Tom Brady is a house underdog for the primary time in his playoff profession.
The 2 largest traces are in favor of San Francisco and Buffalo. Within the final 30 seasons, house favorites of at the very least 9 factors are 11-0 ATS in Wild Card Weekend.
Season Notes
The Payments entered the season as 6-1 favorites to win the title. Nevertheless, they enter the playoffs because the second favourite behind the Chiefs.
The Giants had the most effective ATS document this season at 13-4, whereas the Buccaneers had the worst ATS document this season at 4-12-1.
Season Stats
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Underdogs: 141-118-7 ATS this season (.544), the fifth straight season underdogs are worthwhile
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Street groups: 133-131-7 ATS this season (.504)
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Unders: 149-119-3 this season (.556), the best underneath proportion since 1986
Basic Playoff Developments
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Since 2013, unders are 51-42-1 in playoff video games (.548).
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Since 2017, underdogs are 36-23 ATS in playoff video games (.610).
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Since 2013, underdogs are 23-15-2 ATS in Wild Card video games (.605), together with 16-8 ATS since 2017 (.667).
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Nevertheless, favorites have been 5-1 ATS final season in Wild Card video games.
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Since 2012, unders are 30-14 in Wild Card video games (.682) together with 16-8 since 2017 (.667).
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-9.5), Saturday at 4:30 ET
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San Francisco was an 8.5-point house favourite of their Week 2 assembly (O/U 39.5) and a three-point highway favourite in Week 15 (O/U 42.5). San Francisco coated each conferences with each going underneath the full. When groups have playoff rematches, groups to win AND cowl each regular-season assembly are 40-54-3 ATS in playoff rematches up to now 20 seasons.
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Within the final 30 seasons, Wild Card house favorites of at the very least 9 factors are 11-0 ATS.
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San Francisco was 7-1 ATS as a house favourite this season with 5 straight covers.
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Kyle Shanahan is 5-1 ATS in playoff video games. Final season, San Francisco was 3-0 ATS within the playoffs with all three video games going underneath the full.
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San Francisco is 4-1 ATS with Brock Purdy underneath heart (overs: 4-1).
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San Francisco is 7-1 ATS in its previous eight video games. Seattle is 1-7 ATS in its final eight video games.
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Overs are 12-5-1 in Pete Carroll playoff video games (9-8-1 ATS).
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The one rookie quarterback to be at the very least a seven-point favourite within the playoffs since 2000 is Ben Roethlisberger in 2004 (-9 vs New York Jets; received by 3).
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San Francisco has coated eight straight video games in opposition to NFC West opponents together with playoffs (6-0 ATS this season).
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San Francisco has not been at the very least a nine-point favourite in a playoff recreation for the reason that 1997 Divisional Spherical (-14 vs Minnesota).
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Seattle has not been at the very least a three-point underdog within the Wild Card Spherical since 2010 when it upset New Orleans as a 10-point house underdog.
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Since 2014, underdogs are 8-2 ATS when division opponents meet within the playoffs.
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Los Angeles was a 6.5-point house favourite of their Week 3 assembly (O/U 46), however Jacksonville received the sport 38-10. Previous to that recreation, Los Angeles had coated the earlier 9 conferences. When groups have playoff rematches, groups to win AND cowl each regular-season assembly are 40-54-3 ATS in playoff rematches within the final 20 seasons.
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Los Angeles is 4-0-1 ATS in its previous 5 video games with three straight covers.
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Los Angeles has been an underdog in 12 of its earlier 13 highway playoff video games, with the one exception coming within the 1982 Divisional Playoffs (-2 at Miami; misplaced 34-13).
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Jacksonville has by no means closed a recreation at decide’em. It’s 3-13 ATS in its previous 16 video games as a favourite (4-12 SU with two straight outright wins). It’s 5-2 outright and ATS in its previous seven video games as an underdog (three straight outright wins).
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Doug Pederson is 5-1 ATS within the playoffs together with 5-0 ATS and 4-1 SU as an underdog (0-1 outright as a favourite).
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Jacksonville is 7-5 outright as an underdog this season. Yet another win would match probably the most underdog wins in a season (common season and postseason) within the Tremendous Bowl period (2015 Washington, 2001 New England, 1981 San Francisco, 1981 New York Giants).
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Prior to now 5 seasons (since 2018), there have solely been two house underdogs in playoff video games, and each got here within the 2020 pandemic yr. Since 2015, house underdogs are 6-2 ATS in playoff video games.
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Payments (-9.5), Sunday at 1 ET
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Buffalo was a four-point highway favourite of their Week 3 assembly (O/U 54.5) and a 7.5-point house favourite in Week 15 (O/U 45). Miami coated each conferences (received outright in Week 3). The primary assembly went underneath and the second assembly went over.
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Buffalo has not been at the very least a nine-point favourite in a playoff recreation since 1991. Miami is 0-8-1 ATS all-time as a playoff underdog of at the very least 4 factors.
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Miami is 0-4 ATS in its previous 4 playoff video games with all 4 video games going underneath the full. Unders are 9-1 in Miami’s previous 10 playoff video games.
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Prior to now 30 seasons, Wild Card house favorites of at the very least 9 factors are 11-0 ATS.
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Miami was 5-1 ATS in opposition to divisional opponents this season (2-0 ATS vs Buffalo).
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Teddy Bridgewater is 20-4 ATS in his profession as a highway underdog.
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Since 2014, underdogs are 8-2 ATS when division opponents meet within the playoffs.
New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-3), Sunday at 4:30 ET
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Minnesota was a 4.5-point house favourite of their Week 16 assembly with a complete of 48. Minnesota received 27-24.
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New York was a league-best 13-4 ATS this season, together with 7-1 ATS on the highway. New York has coated 4 straight video games and 4 straight highway video games.
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New York is 9-2 ATS within the playoffs since 2006, together with 8-1 ATS as an underdog. New York is 16-5 ATS and 13-8 outright as a playoff underdog within the Tremendous Bowl period. No crew has extra underdog wins or a greater underdog profitable proportion as a playoff underdog in that span.
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Minnesota video games are 11-6 to the over this season, the best over proportion within the league. Overs are 6-1 in Minnesota’s previous seven video games. 4 straight Minnesota highway video games have gone over the full.
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Groups to cowl at the very least 12 video games through the common season are 31-22-1 ATS in playoff video games for the reason that 1970 merger. The previous three situations didn’t cowl.
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-7), Sunday at 8:15 ET
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Baltimore received their Week 5 assembly 19-17 as a three-point house favourite (underneath 47.5), whereas Cincinnati received their assembly final week 27-16 as an 11.5-point house favourite (over 39). Each occasions, the highway underdog coated regardless of shedding outright.
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Cincinnati was 12-4 ATS, the second-best mark within the league. It’s 20-5 ATS in its final 25 video games together with playoffs, together with 12-2 ATS in its final 14 video games and 7-1 ATS in its final eight video games. Groups to cowl at the very least 12 video games through the common season are 31-22-1 ATS in playoff video games for the reason that 1970 merger. The final three situations didn’t cowl.
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Over the previous 5 seasons, Baltimore is 17-4-1 ATS as an underdog together with playoffs. Lamar Jackson is 10-2-1 ATS as an underdog, Tyler Huntley is 3-1 ATS and Anthony Brown is 1-0 ATS.
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Cincinnati has coated 5 straight playoff video games, together with going 4-0 ATS final season. Eight straight Cincinnati playoff video games have gone underneath the full.
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Baltimore is 9-8 outright as a playoff underdog, certainly one of two groups with a document over .500 as a playoff underdog within the Tremendous Bowl period (New York Giants).
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Since 2014, underdogs are 8-2 ATS when division opponents meet within the playoffs.
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Since 1992, when groups meet within the closing week of the season and meet once more the next week within the playoffs, overs are 11-2.
Dallas Cowboys (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Monday at 8:15 ET (ABC/ESPN)
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Tampa Bay received their Week 1 assembly 19-3 as a 2.5-point house favourite (underneath 52.5). When groups have playoff rematches, groups to win AND cowl each regular-season assembly are 40-54-3 ATS in playoff rematches within the final 20 seasons.
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Tampa Bay was a league-worst 4-12-1 ATS this season. It’s the second-worst regular-season ATS mark of any playoff crew within the Tremendous Bowl period (since 1966), solely behind 1974 Miami (3-10-1 ATS). Tampa Bay is 2-12-1 ATS in its final 15 video games and 1-6 ATS in its final seven video games.
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Tom Brady is 7-3 ATS in his profession as a postseason underdog with 4 straight outright wins. Brady has by no means been a house underdog in a playoff recreation. He’s 11-2 ATS and 9-4 outright as a house underdog within the common season.
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Prior to now 5 seasons (since 2018), there have solely been two house underdogs in playoff video games, and each got here within the 2020 pandemic yr. Since 2015, house underdogs are 6-2 ATS in playoff video games.
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Dallas is 3-10 ATS within the playoffs since 1998 together with 0-4 ATS since 2016.
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Dallas has not been a highway favourite within the playoffs since 1996 at Carolina (-3; misplaced by 9). Dallas is 1-5 outright and ATS as a highway favourite within the playoffs all-time.
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4 of Tampa Bay’s previous 5 video games have gone over the full after 10 of its first 12 video games went underneath.