No deal. The MLB lockout continues.
Major League Baseball has delayed the 2022 season following unanimous agreement by the MLBPA players leaders not to accept MLB’s final proposalBefore the league’s 5 pm. ET deadline.
What’s next? What happens if Opening Day is pushed back? Why can’t the owners of the team and the players work together? How long will this mess continue?
Alden Gonzalez, ESPN’s baseball expert, and Jeff Passan, ESPN’s MLB labor dispute expert, address the major questions.
They have three months to negotiate a deal. Why hasn’t ownership and players come to an agreement on a new CBA instead?
There are many reasons why this has not happened. The players have a deep-rooted mistrust of their owners, they want to make significant gains from a Collective Bargaining agreement that was gamed and a nationwide penchant for corporate billionaires to maximize profits regardless of the blowback. But here’s another micro reason: Owners expressed willingness to reallocate money that goes to the players, but not increase it, at the beginning of negotiations. The pie could change, but it cannot grow larger.
The union’s ambitions were in sharp contrast to the owners’ position. It is the reason why every league counter seemed to include an back-end component, such as a salary floor with significantly lower ceilings. And why proposals around minimum wages, the luxury tax threshold, and the amount that would be used to fund a player pool were minimal at best. The league took three months to oppose the union’s core-economics proposal. It then took six weeks for the league to return to its original position after December’s lockout. These are clear indications that the union owners wanted to delay this in order to make the players give in.
The final week in February was when the real negotiations began. At that point, the union gave up on its demands for revenue-sharing cuts and earlier free agency. It also made significant concessions regarding the eligibility of additional players to arbitration. The owners made generous proposals about minimum salaries, luxury tax thresholds and the additional player pool. The gap is still too large. Owners don’t want to spend much more. Players think they should spend more, considering the increased cash flow from the postseason and the new influx of gamblers. — Alden Gonzalez
What happens to the negotiations now that the deadline has passed to begin?
Both sides will continue to talk as long as they feel it is advantageous. The deadline approached and there was an openness to moving on issues that had been ensconced by both sides. This is a clear consequence of the league setting the deadline and illustrates why it was necessary. There is a deal. All parties know that. It’s simply a matter finding a deal with both parties that not only makes them happy but is also mutually beneficial. — Jeff Passan
Is it possible to start the MLB season earlier than the current delay in Opening Day?
The premise is not something I fully believe in yet. Opening Day being delayed by MLB doesn’t necessarily mean it isn’t. Is MLB going to miss the opportunity to make a deal if there is enough momentum that it could be done by Saturday? It’s not. Even though a three-week spring camp isn’t ideal — and the league rightly says so — it’s something MLB did last year and could again.
It is possible that a deal won’t happen in the next few hours. What is the time frame? It is impossible to predict the future. — Passan
Is there anything that the commissioner could do in order to begin the season without a new CBA?
Absolutely. Rob Manfred could lift lockout and players could report to work under the old agreement. It’s unlikely that he will do so, as it allows players to strike and the competitive balance tax sunset in MLB’s old CBA mean MLB would essentially be operating without it. However, the league still has the option. — Passan
Is the current schedule going to be used when the season starts? Or will MLB need to develop a schedule for a shorter season?
The league seems to be promising that it will continue with the schedule. It would be extremely difficult to do otherwise, as tickets have been sold for specific games on certain dates. — Passan
If the regular season is delayed, does one side have more leverage in negotiations?
The owners are the ones who have the upper hand. They are billionaires and often hold their franchises for many decades, passing them on through the generations. A few missed games in a season are a small blip on their radar over the long-term. Their earning power is significantly lower because their careers are shorter. Players are willing to make greater sacrifices if games are lost. Owners bet that the missing paychecks will cause the union to fracture enough to allow the players to fall on their side.
Since the signing of the last CBA more than five decades ago, the MLB Players Association has been planning for this. They have kept a substantial portion of their licensing checks in reserve to pay players during any possible work stoppage. Starting in April, players will receive $15,000 per month. This is not nearly enough to match their usual salaries. But players have some leverage. They have expanded playoffs, and the financial gain that comes from it. This is why the union was smart enough to tie it to a full season.
The public support seems to be in the players’ favour, too. Rob Manfred is the main culprit for the shortening of the season and its ripple-effects. Although he is subject to the owners that employ him, it’s his job build enough consensus to make a deal. — Gonzalez