SAN DIEGO — Monday morning at baseball’s winter conferences … such a sleepy time with the cool breeze blowing in off the bay and rustling the palm timber ever so barely.
Not a lot. As colleague David Schoenfield put it: The old-school winter conferences are again!
On the morning of the primary full day in San Diego, we have already had two industry-rattling signings, with Trea Turner touchdown a large $300 million dedication from the Philadelphia Phillies simply after Justin Verlander matched the file common annual worth of a contract by reaching an settlement with the Nerw York Mets.
And Aaron Judge, Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts are amongst these nonetheless on the market …
The four-headed class of elite shortstops accessible this winter has generated loads of deserved buzz — with every of Turner, Correa, Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson tickling the whisper mill from daily. It seems that Turner is the primary domino to fall and with this contract, the gauntlet has been thrown down for Correa and the remaining.
Whereas $300 million is a quantity that makes one’s eyes pop, the common annual worth on this deal ($27.3 million) is significantly decrease than the $34 million projected by ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel, who predicted an eight-year, $272 million deal. As a result of Turner turns 30 subsequent season, the 11-year period of the deal is fairly stunning.
Or maybe it is not. It might be that the Phillies noticed this longer dedication for the decrease AAV as a technique to handle their tax thresholds over the following 9 years, throughout which they may have each Bryce Harper and Turner on the ledger with offers totaling $300 or extra. In different phrases, whereas we are able to say that Turner might need a tough time justifying a $27.3 million outlay for what will likely be his age-38 to -40 seasons, the Phillies may not be fearful about that.
What they’re hoping is that Turner can produce $300 million in complete worth throughout the starting and center phases of the deal, whereas massaging the tax strains in order that they will nonetheless fill out contending roster across the two excessive earners, whose contracts are fairly related in construction, with period favored over most annual worth.
It is going to be a tight-rope act over the following couple of years with J.T. Realmuto, Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos and Zack Wheeler all slated to earn $20 million or extra, and Aaron Nola coming into a stroll season.
Nonetheless, the underside line is that the Phillies have Trea Turner within the fold for over a decade now, and for Philly followers, that is undeniably a great factor. (And a painful factor for Nationals followers who will now see each Harper and Turner bludgeoning their group frequently for at the very least the following 9 years.) This assumes in fact that Turner lives as much as the dedication, and he is proven plenty of reasons to suppose that he is as much as the duty.
Turner’s consistency, adaptability and penchant for self-improvement are the qualities you need to see when making this type of dedication. His elite athleticism is a large mark in his favor, as athletic gamers have a tendency to carry their worth longer than extra lumbering sorts. A few causes for this embody with the ability to slide down the defensive spectrum efficiently and likewise that such gamers usually compensate for declining velocity by including energy.
Turner’s energy figures had been down a bit in 2021 and it is crucial that he get again on observe. Nevertheless, he is a profession .300 hitter and perennial contender for the batting title. However he isn’t a high-walk participant and if too lots of these hits change into singles as he ages, then it will likely be harder for him to carry worth. For now, his high-contact, high-average recreation will steadiness out a lineup that options Rhys Hoskins, Castellanos and Schwarber. And as for that dip in slugging, there’s actually nothing below the hood that makes you suppose it is an rising pattern quite than a blip.
So let’s stop worrying and picture an eventual order of Turner, Harper, Realmuto, Castellanos, Schwarber, a DH-to-be-named (or somebody who pushes Schwarber or Castellanos to DH), Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh. That is pretty much as good because it will get.
Nonetheless, Turner gives loads past what he does on the plate. He can play on a regular basis as a center infielder with a plus glove and has all of the attributes you’d need if finally he wants to slip out to heart discipline, a la Robin Yount, to play on the market day by day. He is additionally a great baserunner and base stealer.
As for that base stealing, if that talent turns into extra prominently featured within the model of baseball that emerges amid next season’s rule changes, the Phillies will actually be in good condition.
The Phillies nonetheless want so as to add depth and construct out their bullpen and go concerning the different mundane duties of the baseball offseason. However the group that simply completed two wins shy of a title simply landed one of many gems of the free-agent market.
Suffice to say, it is a good time to be a Phillies fan.