Scotland had nothing in Rome to lose, and everything to gain. They have now been able to grind their way to an 11 point victory over the holders of wooden spoons, but they face a daunting challenge in Dublin against Ireland, who is chasing the title.
The signs aren’t encouraging. The stats for Scotland compared to last year show a marked drop from a side expected to move on.
But has Gregor Townsend’s team fallen behind? Was last season’s peak, though it ended in failure, their peak?
It will take a lot of problem solving to achieve a positive outcome in their last outing. They have only won in Dublin once in the past 23 year. These are the top issues facing Scotland:
Loss or deterioration of your defensive identity
The Townsend side resembled the ex-Scotland maestro in his prime. They were innovative, attacking and creative. It was no accident that Finn Russell rose to the top of the entertainment industry.
Townsend decided to take a different approach after the 2019 World Cup was canceled at the group stage. Steve Tandy joined Test rugby in December 2019. He quickly created one of most difficult defences in Test rugby.
They conceded one try an average per game, in comparison to the 3.4 last year. They also missed 12 more tackles per match, and allowed teams to enter their 22-metre zone 3 times less often each game. Additionally, they conceded fewer point per entry of 22 meters.
They shut down shop, and when teams broke in, they left with very little. The championship last year was a continuation of the same trend. Scotland had just 11 missed tackles per match, and a 91% success rate in tackles. Both individually and collectively, the stats showed a side that is one of the most effective at keeping teams out.
This latest iteration of Scotland has been more vulnerable to attack.
They’ve conceded 11 tries this year, one more than last season and six more than the campaign before. And they haven’t even played Ireland yet. They average 17.3 tackles and concede 11.5 penalties per game.
Scotland have handed out 46 more penalties than any other team this season. 13 against England and Wales; 12 against France; eight against Italy. These are some the best sides in all of the world. Gifting them territories, possessions and points on a regular basis will cause harm.
Conundrum in the midfield
Russell will wear the 10 shirt when he is fit and ready for Scotland. The coaching staff are still puzzled as to who would be the best partner for Russell at 12.
There is not always one right answer. It is possible to need different things from the inside center depending on the opposition. However, the attacking side seems to be suffering from the constant chopping and switching.
Sam Johnson has been the most frequent partner in recent years. This is because he started the Calcutta Cup winning, which has been the highlight of this tournament thus far. He did well in defense, but was not very effective in attack.
Cardiff arrived and brought Sione Tuipulotu. It wasn’t a good start for him in his first Six Nations match. Jonathan Danty, his opposite number, was able to trust him again with the jersey against France.
Tuipulotu’s performance in the United Rugby Championship in Glasgow was excellent, but it’s a huge step up to Test level. He needs to be patient and learn from his mistakes.
It is worrying that neither of these characters has worked well with Russell. Cameron Redpath’s rise and fall has not helped Townsend. Everybody who saw last year’s Calcutta Cup believed that Scotland had found the answer. Someone on the same wavelength with Russell, who knew exactly what the fly-half would do. And he reacted accordingly.
Redpath has had more injuries since then than Frankenstein’s monster. Redpath’s progress has been impeded by injury after injury. He only managed to pick up one cap in that time, which he wore for two minutes during the defeat against Wales.
Russell is losing patience?
Russell is the heart of Scotland’s attack. But the 29-year old has been only a shadow of what he is. Although he still smiles and giggles with the charmer’s smile we have come to expect, he has not delivered on his promise.
His calmness has given way to doubtful decision-making. He is not only ill-disciplined, but also kicking unnecessarily or trying to play the endless Hollywood ball.
After getting away with his yellow at Twickenham, and red in Paris last season, the yellow in Cardiff was expensive. Russell must be at his best if Scotland are to challenge for the title. He has been ineffective this year.
The 29-year-old had a lot of credit in his bank account – his heroics during those early Townsend days are hard for anyone to forget. However, patience is waning.
Price reignites & Graham a shining light
Townsend’s trip to Ireland has its positives. Ali Price is back to his best after his 50th cap. Like many other truly world-class players in Scotland, he was a shadow of himself during this tournament.
He found the player he had lost to relative obscurity, in Lions terms, and snatched the number nine shirt from Conor Murray and Gareth Davies.
Darcy Graham could have been Darcy Graham as his man of the match contender – enjoying his best ever spell of rugby. Townsend has made the Hawick winger one of Townsends first picks.
He is just as energetic on the flank, outperforming Duhan van de Merwe’s X-factor with his hard work and determination. He shines in a campaign where his fellow teammates have failed.