Simulating NFL starting quarterback changes

This NFL offseasonExpect plenty of interest in quarterback movement. Will Aaron RodgersOr Russell WilsonTrade? What will happen to the Tampa Bay BuccaneersAnd Pittsburgh SteelersRetired legends can be replaced Tom BradyAnd Ben Roethlisberger, respectively? What will happen to the teams on the brink of contention? top free agentsAnd draft prospectsWhat is the position of QB? We decided to imagine what it might look like.

We first looked at teams that could potentially make a difference this offseason. Twenty of the 32 franchises came out on top. Next, we asked NFL Nation reporters to act as GMs of their teams to decide how to best serve their most important position. They drafted trade packages for Wilson, Rodgers and other players. They presented offers to free agents (national reporter Dan Graziano played player rep to “sign” new deals here). Finally, they mocked both rounds of the 2022 draftTo address the future.

This exercise was restricted to quarterbacks who will start in 2022 or compete to start there, with the exception that a few draft class QBs might be able to sit outright away. The goal of this project was not to win negotiations, but to show how teams might approach the QB market. (We did NOT include Deshaun WatsonSince his death, he has been participating in market simulations legal issuesThese issues are not yet resolved.

What teams were able to land a new starting quarterback this offseason? Let’s see how we can predict the offseason’s quarterback movement using some hypothetical trade offers and free-agent signings.

Jump to
Rodgers/Wilson | Trade market
Free-agent deals | Early draft picks
Staying put | Every team’s starter

NO-DOUBTERS

Twelve NFL teams seem to be tied to their current starters for at most one more season. These are the following: Cardinals (Kyler Murray), Ravens (Lamar Jackson), Bills (Josh Allen), Bears (Justin Fields), Bengals (Joe Burrow), Cowboys (Dak Prescott), Jaguars (Trevor Lawrence), Chiefs (Patrick Mahomes), Chargers (Justin Herbert), Rams (Matthew Stafford), Patriots (Mac Jones) and Jets (Zach Wilson).

THE BIG-NAME DOMINOES

It is not surprising that Aaron RodgersAnd Russell WilsonCould determine the direction of the quarterback market this offseason. Rob Demovsky will be the Packers’ General Manager, while Brady Henderson, a Seahawks reporter, will serve as the Seahawks’ GM.

Contract status$16.6M cap left for one year

Here are some reasons he might be available. Despite being disgruntled during the 2021 offseasonRodgers was back with the Packers on a reworked dealThis past season, the team agreed to revisit his situationDuring the 2022 offseason. Rodgers said that he will make a decision as to what he wants. by the time free agency opensThere are many options, including returning to Green Bay, asking for a trade, or retiring.

Broncos‘ offer: 2022 first-rounder (No. 9), 2022 first rounder (No.

Rodgers’ representatives and Rodgers would have to give assurances that Rodgers would be open to extending the extension beyond 2022. The Broncos have a problem at quarterback. Teddy BridgewaterBeing an unrestricted and free agent Drew LockHe will enter the last year of his rookie contract. Rodgers isn’t a long-term solution even with an extension. Therefore, the Broncos should at least entertain the possibility of also draft a quarterback. — Jeff Legwold

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The Packers have ruled that there is no deal

The Packers aren’t ready for Rodgers to leave Green Bay. He provides Green Bay the best chance of winning back the Super Bowl. We are not going to trade Rodgers, unless he tells us otherwise. Jeff, we will call you back in about a month. Perhaps we can have a conversation after Aaron has had some time to think. Rob Demovsky

Contract statusTwo years, $37M/$40M cap hits

Here are some reasons he might be available. Wilson voiced frustrationsHe listed with Seattle in February last year, even though he did not demand a trade. four teamsHe said that he would be open to the possibility of lifting his no trade clause for: The Cowboys Saints Raiders Bears The QB was vague about his futureAlso, at the conclusion of the 2021 regular season. It is not clear if Wilson’s list of four teams has changed or expanded. Therefore, each offer below would need Wilson’s approval in addition to that of the Seahawks.

Panthers‘ offer:QB Sam DarnoldRB Christian McCaffrey2022 third-rounder & fifth-rounder, 2023 second-rounder & 2023 third-rounder, and 2023 first-rounder / 2023 third-rounder Wilson

In the deal, we’d send Darnold half of his $18.9M salary. Wilson would make a great fit at many levels for the Panthers as a quarterback. — David Newton

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Browns‘ offer:QB Baker Mayfield, 2022 first-rounder (No. 13, and 2023 first-rounder (No.

Wilson would seemingly fit in well in coach Kevin Stefanski’s run-heavy/play-action/rollout scheme, while Mayfield would get a new start with a franchise that could be ready for a transition. The Browns have a team that is ready to win, so maybe it’s time to make a bold move. Jake Trotter

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Raiders‘ offer:QB Derek CarrS Johnathan AbramWilson’s 2022 second-rounder, and Wilson’s 2022 fifth-rounder

Carr is the franchise’s most successful player, but he may have reached his limit and his contract situation makes it difficult. Both QBs would benefit from a change in scenery. — Paul Gutierrez

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Saints‘ offer: 2022 first-rounder (No. 18), 2023 (No.

The Saints have a hole in QB for as long as Jameis WinstonThey have a win-now list with stars such as Cameron Jordan, Demario DavisAnd Malcolm JenkinsIn their 30s and 40s Alvin KamaraAnd Michael ThomasStill in their prime windows. It doesn’t appear that we have the cap room, but we can make it work. Mike Triplett

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Giants‘ offer:QB Daniel Jones, 2022 first-rounder (No. Wilson, 5) and 2022 (2nd-rounder)

Wilson would be a great fit for New York City if the Giants built around him. — Jordan Raanan

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Eagles‘ offer:QB Jalen Hurts, Two 2022 first rounders (Nos. 15, 16 and 2023 for Wilson

Hurts showed promise, but Wilson is a certain thing. He immediately elevates Philadelphia to the top-tier NFC teams and opens up the possibility of a legitimate championship window. Tim McManus

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Commanders‘ offer: 2022 first-rounder (No. 11), 2022 second rounder (No.

Washington would be the 2023 first-rounder and conditional pick. The Commanders are looking for a quarterback who can represent the brand. Wilson, who hails from Richmond, Virginia, has a Super Bowl and is a top-10-ranked quarterback. Washington loves Wilson’s play-action passing ability. — John Keim

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Seahawks made their decision: No deal

Any discussion about Wilson’s return needs to start with the understanding that Wilson is not currently playing for the Seahawks. Have toTrade him. He can be extremely picky when it comes to listening to offers. Unless he gets so frustrated that he tries force his way out, there has been no indication of him approaching that point. He has also stated his preference to stay. It’s not as if the situation is too toxic to be sustainable. Wilson continues to be a top quarterback, even though he had a rough year due to a finger injury. It’s likely that we are talking about three first-round picks, and, most importantly, a viable path towards a QB who is able to win them a Super Bowl.

It’s a terrible draft for quarterbacks. Any 2023 first-rounder obtained in a Wilson deal would likely be at the end of the round due to how much better he would make his new team. Although the Giants are an exception, and Seattle loved Jones’s draft pick in 2019, the rest of their offer doesn’t quite meet expectations. Wilson is now out of the NFC by the Raiders and Browns, but their trade offers aren’t strong enough for Carr or Mayfield to replace Wilson. Similar for the Eagles and Panthers offers. Washington and New Orleans each offered decent deals that included two second-rounders and then another, but again they weren’t clear enough to position us to replace Wilson. We’ll pass. — Brady Henderson

WE HAVE OTHER TRADES, THOUGH.

Okay, Wilson and Rodgers are irrelevant — but there are two quarterbacks. These wereEventually, the deal was made. Reporters have now the opportunity to trade with other teams (represented here by their reporters) for potential quarterbacks.

Contract status$16.9M cap left for one year

Panthers‘ offer:Garoppolo’s 2022 fourth-rounder & 2023 second-rounder

Garoppolo has shown that he is capable of leading a team to the playoffs. The Panthers believe that with a rebuilt offensive and defense, Garoppolo would be able to do the same. Carolina will have two additional first-round picks in the next two years, including a left tackle. — David Newton

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Steelers‘ offer:Garoppolo’s 2022 third-rounder, Garoppolo’s 2023 sixth-rounder, and half of Garoppolo’s Garoppolo’s annual salary

Garoppolo can help the Steelers transition their offense after Ben Roethlisberger’s death. — Brooke Pryor

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Buccaneers‘ offer:Garoppolo 2022 second-rounder

If the Bucs are able to keep their core roster intact one could argue they’re only one quarterback away from being in contention. This one would not break the bank and allow them to keep their key players free. Garoppolo may not be Tom Brady but he does have Super Bowl experience and played in New England with Brady. He could at most serve as a bridge. Kyle Trask. — Jenna Laine

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Commanders‘ offer:Garoppolo’s 2022 third-rounder & 2023 fourth-rounder

Garoppolo has been rated a strong leader. His injury history is concerning but not prohibitive. He would make a good upgrade, but it could be only temporary, depending on how his play. — John Keim

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Tampa Bay: The 49ers’ decision

It was more difficult than anticipated to find the right match, given that Rodgers and Wilson weren’t traded. In this case, the QB market demand in the offseason is far greater than the supply. While the Niners are happy for Garoppolo to be traded to New England in the second round, I was hoping for a mid-to-late-round pick for 2023. As we clean the decks, this is a fair offer for both sides. Trey LanceGaroppolo taught him a lot and he boosted his standing with the team by how he handled everything. He continued to improve as the years went by. For 2022, Lance will be our starter. — Nick Wagoner

The aftermath of the BuccaneersThe Bucs have only $20 million salary cap space, so Garoppolo’s cap hit could be a problem. Tampa Bay could convert approximately $23.2million of Garoppolo’s contract to a signing bonus. This would bring the cap number down to $5.9million. Now the question is, how long could they keep him there if he was viewed simply as a “bridge quarterback”? Kyle TraskAre you ready? — Jenna Laine

Contract statusOne year remaining, $19.8M cap

Commanders‘ offer: 2022 first-rounder (No. 11) and 2023 conditional fifth-rounder (No.

The conditional pick could become a second rounder if Carr signs an extended deal and Washington wins 10 of its next 10 games in 2022. Washington has had eight quarterbacks in its last three seasons. Since the 1991 Super Bowl, 32 of those starters were with Washington. With the right quarterback, it has a roster capable of being a regular playoff contender. Carr did well last season due to the Raiders using more play-action down that stretch. Washington attempted the fifth most play-action passes. — John Keim

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Washington: The Raiders’ Decision

Mark Davis, Raiders owner said Las Vegas was not in a rebuild or a reloadThis is a fresh start, after Josh McDaniels has been hired as the coach. What’s the discussion? — Paul Gutierrez

The aftermath of the CommandersWashington is the NFL’s worst Total QBR. Kirk CousinsAfter the 2017 season, they were forced to leave. It will need to win back fans with on-field success by rebranding the franchise name and identity. Carr isn’t a top-10 quarterback but he’s still in the 12-15 zone, which Washington hasn’t been consistently in in a while. This trade would allow the Commanders to continue building. He would likely be eligible for a contract extension that will see him receive between $30 and 35 million in salary and guaranteed money of more than $100 million. Washington has been paying the price for failing to have a qualified quarterback for too long. — John Keim

OPEN MARKET SIGNINGS

Okay, we’re now through the trade marketplace and onto free agency. As their GMs for their respective teams, our reporters will make offers to free-agent quarterbacks. Dan Graziano, our player representative, will “ink” each deal.

2021 team: Saints

Saints‘ offer:For two years, $30M (with a guarantee of $7.5M)

The first year would have $7.5M guaranteed, with incentives up to $15M. The second year would not be guaranteed but would offer similar incentives. Although it is difficult to give too much detail until we know the next coach, there could be significant coaching carryover from a team that has believed in you and invested in your development over the past two-years. You should also have a healthier receiver group and an offensive line. Mike Triplett

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Steelers‘ offer:Two years, $10M ($6.5M Guaranteed)

Snap-count incentives up to $3.5M for snaps at least 70%. There’s also a playoff bonus if you play 70% or more of the snaps. The deal would also include a team option for the next year. You’ll be surrounded by young offensive players and a star-studded defensive team, and you have the chance to become the Steelers’ next franchise quarterback. — Brooke Pryor

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Winston’s decision in New Orleans

In the first year of the Saints deal, I make more guaranteed money than I did in two years with the Steelers. Even if the Steelers seem closer to winning than I think they are (and, honestly, who knows?),Pittsburgh would have had to be more competitive with what it has to offer. — Dan Graziano

The Saints’ Aftermath:We looked at many avenues, including one that would have been a blockbuster deal. Russell WilsonBecause we are still in win-now mode despite salary-cap restrictions and a coaching change, Winston’s short-term contract is financially the best. Winston would be the expected starter in 2022, provided he fully recovers from his torn ACL. Mike Triplett

2021 team: Broncos

Broncos‘ offer:Two-year, $39M ($20M Guaranteed)

It also includes a $2M bonus to 70% of offensive snaps 2022/2023, $2.5M bonus to 80% of offensive snappes 2022/2023 and a $3M bonus to 85% of offensive snappes 2022/2023. This deal could be worth upto $45M. The Broncos boast a core of young players at all skill positions, as well as a newly-minted offensively-minded head coach in Nathaniel Hackett. — Jeff Legwold

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Bridgewater’s decision: Denver

It is a nice place. Denver may not draft me this year. — Dan Graziano

Aftermath of the Broncos:Although this isn’t what most Broncos fans would like, it is the best option. Aaron RodgersThe Broncos need to plan to play in 2022, whether Russell Wilson is in fact in the trade marketplace. Bridgewater will be the Broncos’ offensive quarterback. Bridgewater will also be a good mentor for Denver if they do use an early draft selection to pick a quarterback. — Jeff Legwold

2021 team: Raiders

Raiders‘ offer:Two-years, $20M ($14M Guaranteed)

There are incentives such as a $250,000 bonus to Pro Bowl selection, $250,000 bonus to playoff appearance while taking at minimum 75% of season snaps and $500,000 for Super Bowl MVP. The familiarity comes from being here for 2 years. After two years of gadget play under an old regime here’s your chance again to be a full-fledged beginner. Derek Carr traded. — Paul Gutierrez

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Steelers‘ offer:Two-year, $14M (with a guarantee of $8M)

Snap-count incentives will be offered for snaps that exceed 70%. We also offer snap-count incentives to make the playoffs and play 70% of all snaps. Pittsburgh is the best place to show that you are still a starting quarterback in this league. The offense works to your strengths. Plus, you’ll have top offensive weapons such as running back Najee Harris, tight end Pat FreiermuthReceiver Diontae Johnson. — Brooke Pryor

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Mariota’s decision: Las Vegas

Take a picture with Josh McDaniels, my new coach. Carr is gone, and here’s my chance to have a shot with Josh McDaniels. Ryan TannehillCareer rebound in -style — Dan Graziano

Aftermath of The RaidersMariota has been living in Las Vegas for two and a half years but has only played in a few games. Mariota, who was a Heisman Trophy Winner, is now making a fresh start. His skill set is a good indicator of his ability in the redzone. He is the mobile quarterback McDaniels needs today in the NFL. — Paul Gutierrez

2021 team: Panthers

Panthers‘ offer:$5M for one year (guaranteed $1M)

Additional incentives of $5M will be available for Super Bowl wins and playoffs. These could bring the deal up to $10M. We’ll give your chance to compete in 2021 because you brought so much energy to the team. Sam DarnoldTake the starting place and show that you can still be viable. said you could be after the season. — David Newton

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Newton’s decision: Carolina

Why not? We don’t have anyone else interested so let’s try it again. — Dan Graziano

Aftermath of the Panthers:The Panthers acquired Darnold’s fifth-year option, which was a no-brainer after trading for him last season. Carolina remains stuck with the $18.9M cap for 2022. In an ideal world, we would have traded Russell Wilson. Jimmy GaroppoloDarnold’s trade meant that the team didn’t have enough draft capital. If Deshaun Watson‘s legal situationIt becomes obvious that Carolina could still be involved in the mix, and this deal does not change anything. We have veteran competition at a low cost with Newton. There are still options to draft a quarterback. — David Newton

2021 team: Dolphins

Steelers‘ offer:Two-year, $10M (Guaranteed $10M)

Playing-time incentives could make the total value of the team up to $15M. You will be given a chance to compete in the starters’ role, and the offense has plenty of targets available for you in the passing. — Brooke Pryor

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Brissett’s decision is: Pittsburgh

If it’s all I have, I’ll accept it. It’s a great job in a company that has the potential to win. Perhaps I am qualified to compete for the job. If not, it is a good place to be the backup. — Dan Graziano

The Steelers’ aftermathPittsburgh was unwilling to pay the draft capital required to land Jimmy Garoppolo. Marcus Mariota’s asking cost was also higher than expected. We chose Brissett, a mid-tier veteran. Because of his mobility, he’s an interesting candidate. This is something Mike Tomlin and Art Rooney II both emphasize as a priority when selecting the next quarterback. The Steelers have the option of drafting him in 2022, or using him as a bridge option in order to draft a better 2023 or 2024 quarterback. As Steelers veterans, Mason RudolphAnd Dwayne HaskinsCould compete with Brissett — Brooke Pryor

DRAFTING FOR FUTURE AND PRESENT

You still have some opportunities to become a free agent.Tyrod Taylor? Ryan Fitzpatrick? Andy Dalton? Mitchell Trubisky?), but the quarterback market has essentially come down to the draft. Although the class isn’t considered QB-heavy it does include a few. prospectsFirst-round billing. We simulated the quarterback picks in the first two rounds.

There is a greater need for left tackle in this area, but the team decided to not pass on Pickett’s potential. Pickett accepted a scholarship offer by Matt Rhule, the Carolina coach to attend Temple. We will see how this plays out but Darnold is likely to be the starter. Newton won’t be added to the roster unless he starts. Pickett is the future. — David Newton

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Mariota will be the unquestioned starter for 2022 with Corral behind him. Yes, we are using a high draft selection — the one that we received in the Carr deal — for a QB who will not sit. However, Mariota is unlikely to get hurt (he has a history of this), so Coach McDaniels can use that draft pick to create a scenario with quarterbacks who will run to help Corral adjust to the NFL. — Paul Gutierrez

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Steelers have not only one new quarterback, but two. Howell, with his mobility and great arm potential, is an ideal fit for the Steelers. Brissett, Howell and Rudolph could all compete for the opening job at camp. However, the Steelers would be able to allow Howell to develop for one year or for as long as they can in 2022. — Brooke Pryor

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The Lions will stick with you, ultimately Jared GoffFor 2022, they need to address their backup quarterback situation immediately and determine the starting spot in the future. Goff should have a much better start in 2022 than the 2021 season when the Lions were 0-8. Although it is unlikely that Willis will be able to compete right away, the coaching staff could help him develop without too much pressure. Goff has Super Bowl and Pro Bowl experience so he has plenty of time to learn from him. We secured the fifth-year option by using Willis’ second-rounder rather than the Lions early second-round pick. Eric Woodyard

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After Winston resigned, and Taysom HillWe won’t need to draft a quarterback unless we love the value, which is what we did with Ridder in Round 2. Mike Triplett

STICKING WITH WHAT YOU GOT

Many other teams in the QB market chose to keep their current starter, despite all the movement. They didn’t want to draft a future top-tier starting option or bring in any serious competition. This is why our stand-in GMs chose to stay put.

We listened to Ryan’s story out of curiosity. There weren’t any offers available for Ryan. Ryan is a huge $48.6M cap hit and has $43.6M cap hits for the next two seasons. Ryan and Arthur Smith, second year Falcons coach, enjoy working together and Ryan provides stability at the position. Atlanta didn’t have the right options, so No. 8 seemed too high to consider a quarterback considering the number of areas that still need improvement. — Michael Rothstein

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The Browns sign Mayfield, after failing to trade Wilson. His first playoff victory was just one year ago. Browns believe that Mayfield can return to 2020 form with a healed left shoulder after suffering through an injury-plagued 2021 campaign. Jake Trotter

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Mills failed to succeed in his first six-start stint as a replacement for an injured. Tyrod TaylorHe showed enough improvement over his last five games to be considered the starting quarterback for the 2022 season. Houston is still waiting to hear if the Texans have a backup quarterback. They could also choose a veteran quarterback that could compete with Mills for the spot. Deshaun WatsonBefore a potential trade, the legal status of the parties. — Sarah Barshop

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No pick in the first round. Not a strong quarterback draft class. This could also be true for the free-agent class. Cutting ties to Wentz would be an indication that Frank Reich did not believe the quarterback could make his career better. Mike Wells

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The Dolphins will give Tagovailoa an opportunity to improve under an offensive-minded coach. However, this mindset shouldn’t stop the Dolphins from adding a high level backup to Tagovailoa in case he doesn’t improve by 2022. — Marcel Louis Jacques

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It is not easy to find a partner trade who will take Cousins’ $35million fully guaranteed base salary. The Vikings would certainly be in debt for millions if they traded the quarterback at 33 years old (by taking on a significant portion of his salary to make the move) when he has only one year remaining on his contract. Minnesota could restructure other veteran contracts.Harrison SmithAnd Adam Thielen?) ????) Danielle HunterTo free up cap space, they can keep Cousins until 2022 without having him extend another lucrative contract. Courtney Cronin

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The Giants made it clear that Jones will be given at least one more season by the Giants to show they can trust him to be their quarterback. John Mara, co-owner of the Giants, said recently that they have done everything to make this kid miserable since he was here. He blamed the team and not the quarterback for his troubles. Jones’ injury record is worthy of some competition, no matter if it comes in free agency and the first few rounds. — Jordan Raanan

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While it was worth taking a look at Wilson, it was unlikely that it would result in Hurts as the center in 2022. It’s now time to build up the roster. Given the poor quality of this QB group, it is not wise to spend a first round pick on a quarterback. To make sure Hurts doesn’t go down, it is a better idea to get a midround pick on a prospect and to push some draft stock forward to 2023. Tim McManus

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The Titans are convinced that Tannehill is the right coach to lead them. This is why their team has seen a significant turnaround in their franchise. Tannehill has a cap hit of $38.6million, so it will not be easy to trade him. Turron Davidnport

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