| LocationMurrayfield Stadium, Edinburgh DateSaturday, 26 February Kick-off:14:15 GMT |
| Coverage:Live on BBC One, BBC iPlayer, live commentary on BBC Radio Scotland and BBC Radio 5 Live Sports Extra; watch live on BBC Sport website and app |
Four years ago, France coach Jacques Brunel, who had lost to Scotland at Murrayfield twice in a row in the Six Nations Six Nations Six Nations, gave his boys a pass to explore the delights and attractions of the capital. This was a golden ticket to drown their sorrows.
It wasn’t surprising that it was a bad decision. France made many mistakes in those days. The night ended in some fracas at George Street, and another incident at the New Town Hotel. Police interrogated several players about their antics and delayed their flight from Paris to Paris on Sunday. Eight of them were suspended by the French rugby federation over their antics.
France was a distant fourth in that year’s Six Nations, which was about the average result back then.
Their epic rebuilding is so impressive that not one of the 2018 squad will run out at Murrayfield Saturday. Eight survivors are in the Scottish ranks. However, many of the people who will be there will be carrying baggage.
France has lost four of six championship games against Scotland. They were beaten by Gregor Townsend’s squad in Edinburgh, and they lost a possible Grand Slam in 2020. Townsend’s men also lost a potential title in Paris on the last day of last season. On Saturday, 12 members of that France team will be playing.
Although they might not be able to say it loudly, the visitors are likely to be quite cranky about their hosts this weekend. No side has defeated France more often or caused them more frustration in the six previous seasons than the Scots.
One thing is certain: History repeats itself. Before the French arrived at Murrayfield in 2020 with three wins from three of their initial three games, there were great claims about them. This was supposed be Les Bleus’ rebirth. There had been no Grand Slam since 2010. This team was supposed to be the one to make it happen. They didn’t. It wasn’t possible in 2021.
It’s now 2022, they are unbeaten once again and once again the chat has it that this team is the next great French one.
It could be. Young, powerful, athletic, skilful. They outgunned Ireland two weeks ago. They played at such an incredible pace and with such intensity that an elite Irish side was unable to keep up. France is the real deal. France could be a strong host country for next year’s World Cup, due to their excellent age profile.
However, you must add some other things to the mix. Scotland are playing at home, and it is clear that this tournament can be a success in front of home crowds.
Scotland is also furious at themselves for their poor performance in Cardiff. The Scots might bring back the venom they brought to the party in Wales’s humiliating defeat to Ireland in week 1.
Rugby is a game with a lot of tactical and cosmic complexity. However, you can’t underestimate the base element of a rugby team that has everything to prove and their backs against the wall.
Scotland has a strong motivation to silence anyone who sees them as endless flash in the pan merchants. But they have problems.
Matt Fagerson and Jamie Ritchie are both missing from behind-row. Ritchie is a defensive leader, blindside flanker made from granite and a magnificent breakdown spoiler. Fagerson has been Scotland’s main ball carrier at the front.
Jonny Gray is also out. Gray would not say boo to a goose, but he’d love to have a game with these French forwards. The more attritional, the better. Cam Redpath may have started at 12, but his bad luck with injury continues.
France will, however, be without Gabin Villliere, the man who scored the hat-trick against Italy. The poor lambs will have with him, Yoram Moefana from Bordeaux, and Jonathan Danty from La Rochelle in the middle. They are my heartfelt prayers.
Townsend was struck by the French’s overall speed and absolute cruelty as he studied the game with Ireland. The sudden drop-off that allowed Ireland into a game they had never seen before will also be something Townsend will remember. Townsend will be astonished at the amount of space and possibilities that were created in those few minutes. It is high time Scotland supported their efforts. They did almost nothing in Wales.
Discipline is what the 800-pound gorilla was doing in the room. Townsend did not want to dwell too much on the subject in public. But in private, you can be certain they have thoroughly analysed it. They were not suddenly faced with the unhealthily high penalties of Cardiff. This problem has been present for some time and is not getting better.
Scotland conceded 13 penalties to Wales, nine of which were at the breakdown. England was penalized with 13, and Scotland conceded thirteen against England. England was penalized with seven. They are currently at the top in the Six Nations’ offender charts with 26 penalties in just two games. They shipped 47 penalties in four autumn Tests, with 28 of those on the floor. Six Test matches saw them deliver 73 penalties. That’s a death sentence.
Scotland doesn’t lose much if they lose, so this lack accuracy is making things worse. They have gone from conceding nine penalties per Six Nations game in 2020, which is an excellent result, to eleven in 2021, which is still good, but they had two red cards), to 13 plus one yellow so far in 2022, which is concerning when your games are all knife-edge affairs.
Zander Fagerson, who was able to concede seven penalties and received a red card at last year’s Six Nations, followed by seven penalties in the autumn tests, is a key player against France.
He was amazing at the Stade de France one year ago. He was a beast and carried around like a mad man. He is world class at his best. However, he can also be a penalty-machine and will be up against Cyril Baille.
Cardiff was the place where Scotland suffered most of its head-tos and collisions. It doesn’t go down well with them all. It has to hurt. It’s easy for people to say it but it’s hard to do. However, the Scottish pack needs to be alive. It’s been a little tepid lately. Fagerson should abandon the penalty and lead the forward charge.
Townsend will hope that dynamism wins over bulk in the back-row. Rory Darge is a natural seven and will be making his debut at six. He is a tireless worker, a specialist in breakdowns and an outstanding man. He and Hamish Watson should bring about improvements. Magnus Bradbury might want to channel his inner Gregory Alldritt. His carrying against a French backrow is essential.
Scotland needs to be there for its crowd. It is crucial to have a thunderous but calm start. French dominance at the beginning is key. Then everyone can pack up and head home.
Murrayfield magic is a meeting of fans and players. France will be prepared for it. They’ve been in this same tumult before. We’ll learn more about their Grand Slam potential and World Cup potential in the afternoon.
We will also learn more about Scotland’s current position. Proper championship contenders, or bit-part gamers. What’s next? The mystery lies in not knowing.