Mark AndrewsHe is a superb pass-catcher and tight end, thanks to his exceptional ability in getting open and coming down with contested catch. This is true, despite the fact that he has a great tight end. Ravens It is not unusual for tight ends to be able to catch yards.
This is the main takeaway. ESPN’s new Receiver Tracking Metrics (RTMs), NFL player-tracking-based stats we’re unveiling Wednesday. Brian Burke, ESPN Sports Data Scientist, outlined the details of these new metrics. They include Catch Score, Open Score, YAC Score, and a combination of all three. Numbers are based on data from NFL Next Gen Stats tracking going back to 2017.
The abbreviated version of this metric: Each metric is intended to isolate receivers’ play as far as possible. Openness is calculated for all routes, targeted or not, taking into account the receiver’s route, coverage, leverage, and defender position. YAC Score (Catch Score) and YAC Score (Years after Catch) reflect the players’ ability catch the ball and get yards. This is based on how players are placed on the field. Catch Score and Open Score, which are less important, control the skill of the quarterback.
All four metrics have a range of 0 – 99. 50 is the average. The score overall is based on the sum of the three attribute scores. Open Score is more important than any other. Because these metrics have a lot of variance, RTMs are calculated seasonally (rather than game by game).
Let’s take a look at the most important lessons we have learned from the RTMs. We are only three weeks into the 2022 seasons, so we will be focusing mainly on the scores from the beginning of the last season. Here’s a list of the top 10 receivers, and the top 10 tight end since the start 2021.
Andrews nipped Rams Wideout Cooper Kupp Kupp’s overall Score was No. The 2021 season will see the number 1. The attribute breakdown is what makes the RTMs so useful. We can see that Andrews is strong with Open Score and Catch Score, but has a low YAC Score. Kupp is strong all around.
Let’s take a look at our RTMs and nine key takeaways, based on the 2017 numbers:
A.J. Brown Had the NFL’s highest Open Score in 2021…and was still traded
The new Eagles Receiver had a 99 Open score last season. That drops slightly to 94 if you include the first three seasons. Why did they? the Titans trade him, again?
Here’s one example of Brown being more open than anticipated. This one is against man coverage. Which counts more in our metrics. It was matched up to the Bengals‘ Chidobe Awuzie In the divisional round of the playoffs:
A.J. Brown lost ChidobeAwuzie (22) to the Bengals in the divisional round last season. pic.twitter.com/Ge35Yy2fi9
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) September 27, 2022
This video shows how Brown moved on Awuzie effectively and how he completely lost the cornerback. Brown completed the pass from 34 yards to Brown. A safety was closing, but Brown was still open for the deep grab.
Brown, 25, is an elite player in two of these categories throughout his career. Brown, 25, is one of only three players to have a 99 Open Score per season since 2017. He also holds the record for the second-highest YAC Score in a single season (a 97 in 2019). Brown managed just 869 yards in his last season. Brown’s Catch Score was low at 33. Tennessee was run-first, and he was injured in four games.
Top 10 WRs/TEs in Open Score:
(for 2021-22 including postseason with at least 80 targets
1. A.J. Brown: 94
2. Stefon Diggs: 92
3. Diontae Johnson: 91
4. Justin Jefferson: 89
5. Mark Andrews: 87
6. Odell Beckham Jr.: 86
7. Russell Gage: 85
8. Davante Adams: 84
9. Travis Kelce: 81
10. Marquise Brown: 80
Brown’s Catch Score: Should the Eagles be concerned? Not particularly. It’s not difficult to see that getting open is one of the most important attributes, as well as the most stable. We can therefore be more confident that Brown’s ability and stability to get open is superior than his catch rate above expectation. Brown’s Catch scores in the two previous seasons were 63 & 53, respectively.
The Open Scores for two other players were 99 in 2017: the Packers‘ Davante Adams (2020) and, believe or not, it’s the Patriots‘ Jakobi Meyers (2020). These are some shockingly high numbers for Patriots wide receivers
Kendrick Bourne Since 2021, the NFL is leading in Catch Score
Bourne technically missed our qualifying cutoff but his 91 Catch score over the past two years was too strong to ignore. This is surprising because Bourne, while not a well-known player, has struggled to get on the field in New England in 2022. Bourne would have been ranked third in 2021 if the qualifying threshold was lower. He would also be the first player from 2021 to 2022.
Top 10 WRs & TEs in Catch Score:
(for 2021-2022 inclusive of postseason, minimum 70 targets).
1. Kendrick Bourne: 91
2. Tyler Lockett: 85
3. Adam Thielen: 83
4. Amari Cooper: 81
5. Christian Kirk: 79
6. Marvin Jones Jr.: 78
7. Michael Pittman Jr.: 76
8. Cooper Kupp: 75
T-9. Mark Andrews: 74
T-9. Terry McLaurin: 74
Some of Bourne’s Catch Score prowess can be seen in his box score stats. In 2021, 79% have been caught by Bourne. His 9.2 air yard per target isn’t particularly deep but it’s still a bit more than stars like Kupp. Keenan Allen (ChargersBourne is more successful than either.
Bourne’s ranking does not necessarily indicate that he is one of the best three wideouts in NFL. RTMs can only be used to predict, but Open Score is his weakest attribute. Also, Catch Score, YAC Score, and Open Score are dependent on openness. A receiver who isn’t willing to open up will have fewer chances of making catches and earning YAC. Bourne is an efficient receiver, but he’s not as strong in predictive skills.
Bourne’s 3.4-yard average route run this season ranks fourth in receivers and tight end who have run at minimum 30 routes. Jaylen Waddle (Dolphins), Tyreek Hill (Dolphins) and A.J. Brown (Eagles). Although he has only seven catches for 115 yard, he could play more for the Patriots.
Deebo SamuelIn 2021, our metrics almost broke because of the production of yards-after-catch in these yards
The 49ers The average YAC Score for receiver was 99. This is more than four standard deviations beyond the average. Brown’s 2019 campaign (97) was the closest to Brown’s since 2017. Ja’Marr ChaseFor the 2021 Bengals This performance ranked third in our dataset (84)
Top 10 WRs & TEs in YAC Score
(for 2021-2022 including postseason with minimum 80 targets
1. Deebo Samuel: 94
2. Ja’Marr Chase: 82
3. Dallas Goedert: 69
4. DeVonta Smith: 66
5. CeeDee Lamb: 65
6. Brandon Aiyuk: 64
T-7. Cooper Kupp: 62
T-7. George Kittle: 62
T-7. Chris Godwin: 62
T-7. Laviska Shenault Jr.: 62
What is a 99 YAC score? Samuel is so good at surpassing expectations that it makes it difficult to display in just one play. This touchdown against the Rams This is an example from 2021. Samuel has three defenders surrounding him when he captures the fourth-and-6 play. He also has a fourth player with a blocker against him. Samuel passes the needle between them all, allowing for open space to allow him to score.
DEEBO. DEEBO. #FTTB
?: #LARvsSF on ESPN
?: https://t.co/Pbh7qEl7Sy pic.twitter.com/7PMwaChafL— NFL (@NFL) November 16, 2021
Samuel’s YAC Scoring since last season is a little lower at 94 when you take into account the first three games. Samuel’s YAC Score through those three games is just 52.
Michael Thomas Has the highest overall numbers since 2017, and it’s not even close
When I looked at the cumulative performance list since 2017, what struck me first was the starpower. That should be expected.
Then, I concentrated on the scores. Thomas is dominating the field. Catch Score (81) has Thomas as the career leader. This is noteworthy because Catch Score (81) is adjusted to account for the quality of the quarterback. This means that it considers: Drew Brees Thomas was the one who threw most of those passes. Saints.
His 83 Open Score rank third during that time span, trailing only Diontae Johnson (Steelers) at 91 and Justin Jefferson (Vikings) at 85. Thomas’ YAC score is only moderate.
This is a great reminder of Thomas’ dominance in his early years of his career, and what he could become again. He missed all seven games of 2020 and has 16 catches, 171 yards, and three touchdowns so far in this season.
One slight surprise might be Doug Baldwin (Seahawks), whose Open Score (78) landed him among the NFL’s best. Kupp is ranked No. 16. Although he led the league 2021, he was just above average in his previous years.
Andrews, you ask? Travis KelceSince 2021,, has been the most tight end.
Both Andrews & Kelce (ChiefsOver the past two seasons, ) have been great at getting open; Andrews had an 87 Open Score and Kelce had an 81. These are the two highest Open Scores in tight ends over that period and rank in the top 10 pass-catchers.
Their Catch Scores show the difference in their overall scores. Andrews is at 85, Kelce is at 70. Kelce is at 43.
Burke observed in his piece explaining RTMs Two of these Patrick MahomesThe Chiefs’ greatest strengths are their ability to read the play and extend it. These factors lead to success for the team and high box-score statistics. These are measures Catch Score adjusts to account for because they are the quarterbacks’ skills and not the receivers. That partly explains Kelce’s problem. Kelce is an exceptional receiver who can get open. His quarterback is great, so he can produce at a very high standard. However, the conversion rate of targets to receptions over the last two seasons has been below average based upon the expectations.
Although Catch Score is a lot more than that, the basics statistics can be used to help us understand the trends. Since 2021, Andrews has had 71% catch rates, Kelce has only 7.8.
Since the beginning of last season, the Open Score leaderboard is full of big names… including Gage who was part of a bad team. Falcons team before being scooped up by the Bucs Free agency. Gage began the season with a low number of catches, but he soon soared for 12 catches and 13 targets. the Bucs’ loss to the Packers Sunday’s game was a Bucs’ match. top three options were unavailable.
His 84 Open Score was a clear indicator of this. His 28th-highest route target rate was at the beginning of 2021. This is solid, but it also indicates that he was underused due to his ability to create space. Only one of the eight Open Score receivers was ahead of him. Odell Beckham Jr. Gage was being targeted at a lower level than Gage, and Kupp was competing with him for targets for the future. Rams.
Here’s Gage being untargeted against the open. Patriots In Week 11 of the last season:
Russell Gage (14) was open, but not targeted last season in Week 11 against the Patriots. pic.twitter.com/RUFlR0tvek
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) September 27, 2022
Robbie Anderson Has the worst overall score ever since 2021
These lists can also be very informative. Anderson had a brutal 2021 season with 53 catches for 519 yard and five touchdowns on 110 targets. He had a lowest-possible Catch Score (0), which makes him a poor player. He has been catching his targets at 49% since the beginning of last season. This is the lowest rate among all qualifiers who have played in both seasons.
Although there are not many surprising names at the top of this list, there are some players that caught my attention:
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Darnell Mooney (BearsSince the beginning of 2021, ), has a high Open Score (61) and a low Catch Score (12), which brings his total to 37.
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Two ends that are considered to be close together in the upper echelon generally have weaker RTMs. Darren Waller (Raiders) and Kyle Pitts (FalconsBoth have a 42 overall score. While Waller’s three attributes are all in the 40s, Pitts has a lower Open Score (34), but moderate Catch (54) or YAC Scores (49) while Waller has all three.
The total score for runningbacks is calculated differently. Each attribute’s importance is reversed. YAC Score is most important. Catch Score with Open Score follows. Because backs are often running checkdowns and swings, they can be easily overlooked. This is why their skill lies more in creating yards after catch and not generating the target opportunity.
It’s Patterson, a veteran since the start of last season.FalconsHe is the winner. He holds the second-highest YAC score in this time frame — Jets Backup Ty JohnsonHe is actually No. 1, with 34 catches in the last season. 1.
Although the samples for running backs are very small, it is still helpful to see their numbers. Below the running backs are: Ezekiel Elliott, whose 27th rank is the worst among qualifiers.
These metrics are noisy and best to be viewed with larger samples. However, we needed to see the numbers for the first three 2022 games. Two receivers who were playing with weaker QBs — we are trying to isolate QB performance — standout.
Lockett (SeahawksJohnson (SteelersEach have an overall score 73. Lockett is the leader in Open Score (91) while Johnson is in Catch Score (84). Both are weak in YAC. This is traditionally a weak category of Lockett.
Below is an example Johnson’s most extraordinary grabs. He does a deep fade to the left sideline and tight coverage. Bengals Cornerback Chidobe Awuzie. Quarterback Mitch Trubisky Johnson was fired in Johnson’s direction anyway and he made an impressive one-handed grab while battling with both the defenders and the sideline.
Diontae Johnson just caught one of the greatest catches of all time. ? @Juiceup__3
?: #PITvsCIN CBS
?Stream NFL+ https://t.co/pHwdeoOMZE pic.twitter.com/SuzKGfrQXl— NFL (@NFL) September 11, 2022
Even with very small samples, stars are visible at the top. However, there are many other receivers who have made nice starts and worked their way up the list. Zay Jones (Jaguars( Mack Hollins (Raiders).
These are just a few of the 2022 numbers that are notable. These are just a small selection.