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ESPN staff
The loser Houston Texans Have the best chance to choose No. The overall number 1 in the 2023 NFL draftAccording to the most recent projections, the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI).
The 0-3-1 Texans – Who placed third in the 2022 draft — Have a 33.2% chance at landing the top selection. They’re followed closely by the 1-3 Pittsburgh Steelers (14.5%) benched quarterback Mitch Trubisky In favor of the rookie first-rounder Kenny Pickett.
Five trades already took place involving first-round draft picks, including one with the Texans. Detroit Lions, Seattle Seahawks Philadelphia Eagles In line for two selections in Round 1 They were the fifth team. stripped of their own pick Because of violations of league policies The integrity of the game. This means that there are only 31 picks for the 2023 first round.
The FPI projects the draft order every week by simulating the rest of the season 10,000 time each week. The model’s ratings for each team and game locations are key factors in determining the probabilities of winning. The order of the games is determined by how many records the model expects teams to have after 17 games. Each team’s average draft position is used in the simulations.
For the complete 1-31 projection, click here 2023 NFL draft (updated Oct. 7):
Average draft position: 4.0
FPI opportunity to earn No. 1 pick: 34.3%
FPI opportunity to be a top-five pick 76.5%
FPI opportunity to be top-10: 92.3%
Average draft position: 6.3
FPI opportunity to earn No. 1 pick: 14.2%
FPI opportunity to be a top-five pick 54.9%
FPI opportunity to be top-10: 80.4%
Average draft position: 7.5
FPI opportunity to earn No. 1 pick: 8.5%
FPI opportunity to be a top-five pick 44.7%
FPI opportunity to be top-10: 74.9%
Average draft position: 7.6
FPI opportunity to earn No. 1 pick: 7.7%
FPI opportunity to be a top-five pick 43.6%
FPI Chance to Earn Top-10 Picks: 73.4%
Average draft position: 8.7
FPI opportunity to earn No. 1 pick: 7%
FPI opportunity to be a top-five pick 36.6%
FPI Chance to Earn Top-10 Picks: 65.5%
Average draft position: 9.4
FPI opportunity to earn No. 1 pick: 5.3%
FPI opportunity to be a top-five pick 33.3%
FPI opportunity to be top-10: 62.8%
Average draft position: 9.5
FPI opportunity to earn No. 1 pick: 4.2%
FPI opportunity to be a top-five pick 30.9%
FPI opportunity to be top-10: 62.4%
Average draft position: 10.76
FPI opportunity to earn No. 1 pick: 2.9%
FPI opportunity to be a top-five pick 23.2%
FPI opportunity to be top 10 pick 53.3%
Average draft position: 10.7
FPI opportunity to earn No. 1 pick: 2.8%
FPI opportunity to be a top-five pick 23.7%
FPI opportunity to be top 10 pick 53.8%
Average draft position: 11.0
FPI opportunity to earn No. 1 pick: 2.8%
FPI opportunity to be a top-five pick 23.4%
FPI opportunity to be top-10: 50.2%
Average draft position: 11.9
FPI opportunity to be a top-five pick 20%
FPI opportunity to be top-10: 46.4%
Average draft position: 12.5
FPI opportunity to be a top-five pick 16%
FPI opportunity to be top-10: 40.%
Average draft position: 12.7
FPI opportunity to be a top-five pick 13.8%
FPI opportunity to be top-10: 39.2%
Average draft position: 13.0
FPI opportunity to be a top-five pick 15.3%
FPI opportunity to be top 10 pick 39.9%
Average draft position: 14.9
FPI opportunity to be a top-five pick 10%
FPI opportunity to be top-10: 30.5%
Average draft position: 15.5
FPI opportunity to be a top-five pick 8.5%
FPI opportunity to be top-10: 28.3%
Average draft position: 17.1
FPI opportunity to be a top-five pick 5.6%
FPI opportunity to be top-10: 20.3%
Average draft position: 18.3
FPI opportunity to be a top-five pick 5.5%
FPI opportunity to be top-10: 18.4%
Average draft position: 18.8
FPI opportunity to be a top-five pick 3.3%
FPI opportunity to be top-10: 12.3%
Average draft position: 19.5
FPI opportunity to be a top-five pick 3.4%
FPI opportunity to be top-10: 13.8%
Average draft position: 20.1
FPI opportunity to be a top-five pick 1.9%
FPI opportunity to be top-10: 8.7%
Average draft position: 20.5
FPI opportunity to be a top-five pick 0.9%
FPI opportunity to be top-10: 5.9%
Average draft position: 20.7
FPI opportunity to be a top-five pick 1.9%
FPI opportunity to be top-10: 8.6%
Average draft position: 21.5
FPI opportunity to be a top-five pick 1.4%
FPI opportunity to be top 10 pick 7.2%
Average draft position: 22.0
FPI opportunity to be a top-five pick 1%
FPI opportunity to be top-10: 5.9%
The Miami DolphinsThe No. 1 pick in the first round is expected to be a rookie. 26 but the team was stripped of the pick Because of violations of league policies This is to ensure the integrity of the game. This pick will therefore be skipped. There will be only 31 picks in 2023.
Average draft position: 24.2
FPI opportunity to be a top-five pick 0.2%
FPI opportunity to be top-10: 1.1%
Average draft position: 26.9
FPI opportunity to be a top-five pick Less than 0.1%
FPI opportunity to be top-10: 0.2%
Average draft position: 27.3
FPI opportunity to be a top-five pick Less than 0.1%
FPI opportunity to be top-10: 0.5%
Average draft position: 27.4
FPI opportunity to be a top-five pick Not more than 0.1%
FPI opportunity to be top-10: 0.1%
Average draft position: 27.7
FPI opportunity to be a top-five pick Less than 0.1%
FPI opportunity to be top 10 pick 0.1%
Average draft position: 27.9
FPI opportunity to be a top-five pick Less than 0.1%
FPI opportunity to be top 10 pick 0.1%