Which underperforming groups ought to hit the panic button?
The defending champion Milwaukee Bucks and the group they beat to achieve the Finals, the Atlanta Hawks, are each below .500 to begin the season. Can the Bucks get wholesome and start a climb towards the highest of the Jap Convention, and may the Hawks proper the ship on protection in time for an additional magical run?
The Boston Celtics have been one of the vital unfortunate groups within the league thus far this season, dropping two double-overtime video games and one other on a buzzer-beating 3. The Portland Trail Blazers, in the meantime, have been up and down as star guard Damian Lillard tries to interrupt away from one of many worst taking pictures slumps of his profession.
After which there are the New Orleans Pelicans, mired in an early-season slide because the franchise waits on the season debut of star ahead Zion Williamson whereas additionally coping with a handful of different accidents to key gamers.
There’s loads of season left to show issues round. Which groups will? Our NBA insiders are breaking down the place 5 groups fall on the panic meter.
Atlanta Hawks (6-9)
Panic meter: 3/10
The Hawks had excessive expectations for this season, however thus far they’ve been a disappointment. Nevertheless, if there’s one group that ought to not panic after a awful begin, it is these guys, who endured a horrible stretch final season earlier than turning it round and marching to the Jap Convention finals.
Earlier than Nate McMillan took over as interim head coach on March 1, the Hawks have been mediocre at greatest, successful 14 of 34 video games. However after March 1, the group went 27-11 to shut the common season earlier than upending each the New York Knicks and the Philadelphia 76ers in intense postseason collection.
This season, they’re off to a different dangerous begin, successful simply six of their first 15 video games due to Atlanta’s poor protection.
The Hawks are sixth in offensive effectivity and twenty seventh in defensive effectivity — level guard Trae Young is a key motive for each of these rankings.
Younger deserves credit score for serving to Atlanta get buckets, however he additionally wants to enhance on the defensive finish. Opponents like to assault Younger within the pick-and-roll for good motive. Whether or not he is defending the motion with Clint Capela or with John Collins, the outcomes have not been nice.
Out of fifty gamers who’ve defended the ball handler in no less than 500 pick-and-roll actions this season, Younger ranks forty ninth, permitting 1.11 factors per probability on these performs.
It isn’t an accident Younger led the league in picks defended final season, and he is main in that class once more this yr — opponents know he struggles on the level of assault and so they exploit that weak spot.
Atlanta would possibly by no means be a defensive juggernaut, however within the 38 video games McMillan coached final season, the Hawks ranked twelfth within the league on protection. That is the stat to look at for Atlanta. With Younger on the helm, the offense will likely be good — the query is can the protection turn out to be first rate?
— Kirk Goldsberry
Boston Celtics (7-7)
Panic meter: 4/10
It is easy to have a look at Boston’s .500 document coming into Wednesday’s sport at Atlanta and see it as a disappointment. However when you think about this group has blown two double-digit, fourth-quarter leads, misplaced two double-overtime video games and misplaced one other on a last-second shot by Luka Doncic in Dallas, it would not have taken a lot for issues to look so much rosier in Beantown than they do in the intervening time.
That is very true once you think about Jaylen Brown lacking six of these 14 video games due to COVID-19 and a sore hamstring, and Jayson Tatum mired in what simply is the largest taking pictures stoop of his profession.
All of that’s to remind issues ought to find yourself high-quality in Boston — finally. Brown has to get again on the courtroom, which ought to occur quickly, and Tatum must get again on observe.
Tatum, who’s taking pictures profession lows of 38.6% general and 31.6% from 3-point vary, has additionally seen his shot profile decline this season. In every year of his five-year profession, his common shot distance has elevated from 12.7 ft as a rookie to fifteen.1 ft this season. He takes 26.5% of his pictures from 10 ft away from the rim out to the 3-point line — the dreaded lengthy 2 — after taking 23% of his pictures from that vary final season and 21.5% the yr earlier than.
Extra alarmingly, he has seen a drastic drop in his taking pictures percentages inside 3 ft (from 73.5% final season to 54.5% now).
Whereas Tatum must be extra aggressive in attacking the rim, he isn’t going to shoot like this all season. He has an excessive amount of of a observe document of success to suppose he has reverted to a below-average quantity scorer.
And, as soon as he will get again on observe — and Brown stays on the courtroom — Boston’s offensive woes ought to be rectified.
The Celtics are ranked tenth within the NBA in defensive score — proper round the place they have been projected through the preseason. It’s the offense, which is all the way down to twenty fourth, that has held them again.
Tatum is not the one participant struggling. Marcus Smart, Al Horford, Payton Pritchard and Aaron Nesmith are off to chilly begins, with the these 4 all taking pictures under 30% from deep on a number of makes an attempt per sport.
One trigger for concern is that if Robert Williams III, who has been a big-time vibrant spot as Boston’s beginning middle, has to overlook prolonged time due to the left knee soreness that compelled him to exit Monday’s win in Cleveland. The lack of Williams for an prolonged interval may very well be an enormous blow to Boston’s sturdy defensive exhibiting.
Nonetheless, this group ought to stay close to the highest 10 defensively and should not keep within the backside 10 offensively. As soon as the offense picks up, the Celtics will look higher and maybe win a few of these shut video games.
— Tim Bontemps
Milwaukee Bucks (6-8)
Panic meter: 4/10
The Bucks’ first title protection in 50 years is off to a rocky begin. They enter Wednesday’s matchup with the Los Angeles Lakers (7:30 ET on ESPN) two video games below .500, middling in each offensive (18th within the NBA) and defensive effectivity (twentieth).
Such struggles through the common season have turn out to be international in Milwaukee since Mike Budenholzer took over as coach. The Bucks have received at a 58-win tempo by Budenholzer’s first three common seasons, and the group has not been below .500 this late into the yr since November 2017, the final season below coach Jason Kidd. So, it is comprehensible to marvel what is going on on.
Milwaukee’s greatest concern is availability — its roster hasn’t been complete because the begin of the season.
By their first 14 video games, the Bucks have used eight completely different beginning lineups; they wanted solely 12 completely different beginning models to get by all of final season. Three gamers — Grayson Allen, Pat Connaughton and Jordan Nwora — have appeared in all 14 video games. Brook Lopez has not performed since opening evening due to a again damage. Jrue Holiday remains to be getting his legs below him after lacking six video games with an ankle damage. Khris Middleton is predicted to return Wednesday in opposition to the Lakers, however he missed eight video games within the NBA’s well being and security protocols after testing optimistic for COVID-19.
It has left Giannis Antetokounmpo dealing with double groups nightly. Nonetheless, Antetokounmpo is fourth within the league in scoring, averaging 26.5 factors per sport, whereas grabbing 11.3 rebounds with a career-best 6.0 assists.
With accidents and sicknesses depleting their rotation, the Bucks have not expressed a lot fear about their early-season skid. Moreover, Milwaukee has performed its greatest basketball early within the season earlier than, solely to get bounced prematurely within the playoffs. Within the aftermath of their championship, they’ve the arrogance to tug it collectively because the season progresses.
Reinforcements ought to arrive sooner or later for Antetokounmpo. Middleton is prone to be eased again into motion on a minutes restrict, however he’ll assist take consideration from defenses. The Bucks have been unclear a few timeline for Lopez or Donte Divincenzo, who remains to be recovering from an ankle damage suffered in final season’s playoffs. Milwaukee would not have a motive to hurry anyone again proper now.
“We’ll play higher,” Antetokounmpo informed reporters after Sunday’s 20-point loss to the Hawks. “As soon as everyone comes again, Khris comes again, we begin to play effectively, everyone goes to his function and we’re aggressive and get into the paint and transfer the ball and we defend and we rebound and we crash the paint and all that, we will be the place we wish to be.”
— Jamal Collier
Portland Path Blazers (7-8)
Panic meter: 5/10
The panic meter was escalating in Portland after a noncompetitive 124-95 loss to the Denver Nuggets on Sunday with out star Damian Lillard, because the Blazers fell to 1-7 this season on the street. Afterward, first-year coach Chauncey Billups expressed his frustration along with his group’s effort degree, telling reporters, “I do not suppose we got here to compete on this sport.”
An evening later, again within the Moda Middle with Lillard within the lineup, Portland bounced again with a 118-113 win in opposition to the Toronto Raptors that highlighted the group’s potential this season due to the event of Nassir Little and Anfernee Simons and addition of Larry Nance Jr.
The humorous factor in regards to the Blazers’ sub-.500 begin is that a lot of what that they had hoped for coming into the season has come to fruition. A mix of higher personnel off the bench and a extra aggressive defensive scheme put in by Billups has allowed Portland to be extra aggressive at that finish after ending twenty ninth in defensive score in 2020-21.
Moreover, current first-round picks Little and Simons have taken key steps ahead. After rising as a harmful 3-point shooter throughout his third NBA season, the 22-year-old Simons has broadened his sport in 12 months 4, averaging a career-high 22.5 minutes per sport. In the meantime, Little, 21, has elevated his taking part in time from 13.3 minutes per sport to 21.8 in his third season by translating his bodily capacity into optimistic performs at each ends.
To this point, these upgrades have been essential to offset the gradual begin by Lillard, the one anchor the Blazers might depend on amid accidents and roster turnover in years previous. Lillard started the season in one of the worst slumps of his career, making 34% of his pictures and 22% of his 3s over the primary 9 video games. Over the previous 5 video games, Lillard’s taking pictures percentages have returned to regular (47% general, 39% on 3s), albeit at a decrease quantity than in years previous as he has averaged 24.8 PPG throughout that span.
Irrespective of how good the supporting solid, Portland goes so far as Lillard leads them.
Assuring Lillard is wholesome — he has lengthy handled an stomach difficulty that brought about him to overlook Sunday’s sport — the Blazers have time to show issues round. They’re two video games out of sixth within the West, the ultimate assured playoff spot, and have a greater level differential than three of the groups forward of them within the standings.
Portland does face off-court points, because the franchise investigates concerns about the workplace environment below president of basketball operations Neil Olshey. And regardless of his current feedback reaffirming his commitment to the team and city, the potential for Lillard asking for a commerce will stay a long-term concern so long as the Blazers do not appear to be championship contenders.
Within the brief time period, nevertheless, it is too early and an excessive amount of has gone proper for Portland to panic.
— Kevin Pelton
New Orleans Pelicans (2-13)
Panic meter: 9/10
A group that was constructed round Zion Williamson hasn’t had Zion Williamson, and its document exhibits it. However even with out the 21-year-old famous person, a two-win begin should not have been within the playing cards for the Pelicans.
At media day, the Pelicans introduced Williamson suffered a proper foot fracture within the offseason and would not play in any preseason video games. Pelicans govt vice chairman of basketball operations David Griffin stated the group was optimistic about Williamson’s timeline, and Williamson himself stated he deliberate on getting again on the courtroom for the beginning of the common season.
Sadly for New Orleans, that did not occur. On Tuesday, Williamson was cleared to take part in contact drills.
The Pelicans have struggled in his absence; they’ve already misplaced a league-leading three video games this season when main by 15 or extra factors.
New Orleans has needed to cope with accidents to extra than simply Williamson thus far. Brandon Ingram missed seven video games due to a proper hip contusion. Josh Hart missed 4 video games due to a quad damage. Rookie Herb Jones, who has been out and in of the beginning lineup, missed one sport due to a concussion and three extra due to a sprained ankle.
With out Ingram and Williamson, the Pelicans are 0-7. With Ingram, they’re 2-6. So there may be some hope that when Williamson returns to the lineup, he’ll give them a much-needed enhance.
When Ingram returned from his seven-game absence, the Pelicans defeated the Memphis Grizzlies after which pushed the East-leading Washington Wizards (minus Bradley Beal) to the brink earlier than collapsing within the fourth quarter.
The collapse on Monday was proof of the Pelicans’ obvious want for yet one more playmaker. The ball stopped transferring, and the offense stagnated. The Pelicans’ 17-point halftime lead dissipated as Washington pulled out a 105-100 win.
Williamson, in his Level Zion kind, might step in and deal with ballhandling duties at instances. It might additionally assist to stability out a few of the Pelicans’ models, with Ingram and Williamson on the entrance line and Devonte’ Graham and Jonas Valanciunas beginning however serving to the second unit.
Additionally, a number of Pelicans gamers are underperforming. Nickeil Alexander-Walker has had a roller-coaster season whereas struggling from the sphere, taking pictures 37.7% general and 27.7% from deep. Kira Lewis, the Pelicans’ 2020 first-round decide, has misplaced backup level guard minutes to Tomas Satoransky. Jaxson Hayes was briefly benched for Willy Hernangomez, forcing Valanciunas to play extra minutes because the group’s greatest offensive menace.
Williamson’s presence ought to alleviate a few of the Pelicans’ points. However when he steps on the courtroom stays up within the air.
New Orleans has been right here earlier than. In 2019-20, the group began 6-22 whereas Williamson sat because of a torn meniscus. When he did return in January, the group’s play and wins picked up. Two months later, the Pelicans have been pushing for the ultimate playoff spot with 15 video games to go earlier than COVID-19 paused the NBA season.
This time round, New Orleans has to get to solely No. 10 within the standings in an effort to make the play-in match. Whereas Williamson’s return ought to make that simpler, if the Pelicans proceed to falter as they’ve to begin the season, main modifications may very well be on the horizon.
— Andrew Lopez