The Nationwide League West is about to get wild. The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres — two powerhouses predicted to battle all season lengthy for the division crown — play six occasions in 10 days. The beginning of the season has been stuffed with ups and downs for each groups, so what have we discovered about every through the first month?
We requested ESPN MLB consultants Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez and David Schoenfield to weigh in with what has outlined the 2023 season — to this point — for every group, plus replace their preseason predictions.
What’s one quantity that defines the Dodgers — and can it final?
Doolittle: 125. That is the AXE score for James Outman. (Which implies, roughly, that he has been 2.5 customary deviations higher than the common MLB participant this season.) That is the highest score amongst all rookies, although I do not count on it to stay that approach, just because Arizona’s Corbin Carroll is not that far behind and is phenomenal. Nonetheless, I picked this quantity as a result of that is the season of the rookie in Los Angeles, which corresponds to an offseason during which the Dodgers briefly eased up on the payroll firehose that has been simply one in every of their traits in current seasons.
Outman has been excellent and Miguel Vargas has been approaching and appears like a lineup fixture. We have already gotten a glimpse at different rookies like Michael Busch and Gavin Stone, whereas Ryan Pepiot ought to be a part of the membership when he is wholesome. Bobby Miller is again in motion in Triple-A. Based mostly on what we have seen, the Dodgers have already gotten extra manufacturing from rookies than another group, although that title adjustments palms each few days. Outman may not find yourself as the highest total rookie, however the Dodgers have an opportunity to lap the sphere in rookie worth which, coming from this very-well-established powerhouse, is a daunting factor.
Gonzalez: 35. That is the quantity of innings Mookie Betts has performed at shortstop this season. Sure, shortstop. It is a place he had not performed since 2012 for the Single-A Lowell Spinners, however one he has nonetheless dealt with competently on the main league stage. A transition like that is little doubt a testomony to how particular an athlete Betts is — nevertheless it’s additionally an ominous signal with regard to the Dodgers’ depth at such an essential place.
The Dodgers handed on the large free agent shortstops this offseason as a result of they needed Gavin Lux to take over the place full time. Lux’s subsequent ACL tear put them in a very robust spot, with Miguel Rojas and Chris Taylor struggling offensively and no person within the farm system able to take over. Betts taking part in shortstop highlights the uncertainty all through the Dodgers’ roster (an uncertainty, granted, that L.A. continues to beat).
For now, Betts’ presence at shortstop lengthens the lineup as a result of it permits the Dodgers to place an additional outfielder in it. However finally they’re going to have to amass somebody full time. Tim Anderson, maybe?
Schoenfield: 1.89. Clayton Kershaw‘s ERA. We may have additionally chosen Kershaw’s 0.763 WHIP, which leads the NL. Batters are hitting .175/.208/.285 in opposition to him. The purpose is that Kershaw is as efficient as he has ever been — and, in reality, his common fastball velocity is the very best it has been since 2017. That is nonetheless comparatively pedestrian by in the present day’s requirements, however Kershaw is such a grasp in all phases of the sport — command, deception, two-plus breaking balls — that it would not matter.
Alongside Julio Urias, who seems again on monitor after a few tough outings, the Dodgers have two ace-level starters. The important thing for Kershaw, after all, is what number of video games he can begin. He has began 22 every of the previous two seasons, which makes him Previous Hoss Radbourn in comparison with Jacob deGrom, so perhaps that must be seen because the expectation. However getting to twenty-eight and even 30 begins could possibly be the distinction between the Dodgers successful the division or not successful it.
What’s one quantity that defines the Padres — and can it final?
Doolittle: 139. That is factors of OPS. Particularly, it is the distinction between the mixed profession OPS numbers of Manny Machado, Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr. (.874) and what they’ve accomplished this season (.735). A lot of the optimistic side of that 2023 quantity is Soto’s .400 on-base share and, certainly, being a .400-OBP participant is a reasonably excessive flooring for anyone. The primary level although is there may be an terrible lot of star-level manufacturing lacking from the Padres’ ledgers. I might not guess on that persevering with.
Gonzalez: 30. That was Xander Bogaerts‘ on-base streak, which led to a bizarre approach on Wednesday (on a base hit to proper discipline that noticed Soto get thrown out as a result of he thought the ball had been caught). Bogaerts’ signing was initially deemed extreme. The Padres already employed two shortstops in Tatis and Ha-Seong Kim, and but they have been splurging $280 million on one other in Bogaerts? One month in, the extra related query is that this: The place would the Padres be with out him?
Bogaerts is slashing .291/.378/.479 by way of his first 135 plate appearances with the Padres, unsurprisingly main them in FanGraphs wins above substitute. With Tatis nonetheless discovering his footing and Machado and Soto struggling out of the gate, Bogaerts’ manufacturing — together with good contributions from Trent Grisham and the DH platoon of Nelson Cruz and Matt Carpenter — has been important.
Schoenfield: 4.47. The Padres’ rotation ERA. The Padres’ two greatest starters have really been Seth Lugo, who has by no means pitched a full season as a starter, and Nick Martinez, who’s again within the bullpen with Joe Musgrove off the injured checklist. For all of the considerations in regards to the Dodgers’ rotation, the identical considerations maintain for the Padres. Blake Snell is just not the pitcher he was when he gained the Cy Younger Award for the Rays in 2018 and it is time to cease anticipating a better stage from him. Michael Wacha has one season with not less than 25 begins and an ERA below 4.00 and that got here approach again in 2015. Even Musgrove has been hit exhausting in his first two begins and as dominant as he was within the first half in 2022, he had a 3.62 ERA and allowed 13 dwelling runs in 77 innings within the second half. I believe this rotation has rather a lot to show earlier than we assume it is adequate to win a division.
Which group will win probably the most of its head-to-head video games this month and why?
Doolittle: It’s a trap! (That is Disney mental property, so it is OK.) Choosing any small subset of a baseball regular-season schedule is a dicey proposition at greatest. The Dodgers have an enormous edge in run differential. The Padres had a small edge in my preseason projections however the Dodgers’ would have the small edge if I redid that train now. Each groups have been taking part in properly however the Dodgers have been one of many hotter groups in baseball. So I will say L.A. wins 4 and San Diego two.
Gonzalez: Do not let a four-game NLDS upset by the Padres final October make you overlook about what occurred proper earlier than that. The Dodgers dominated the Padres, successful 26 of 39 regular-season video games from 2021 to 2022, and I might guess they take 4 of six from them this month. The Dodgers are rolling in the mean time, coming off back-to-back sweeps of the St. Louis Cardinals and the Philadelphia Phillies, whereas the Padres are seemingly simply getting going. The Padres have extra upside, however the Dodgers are taking part in higher recently.
Schoenfield: I will go along with the Dodgers if solely as a result of we all know Kershaw is wholesome and the Padres’ massive 4 hitters have not fairly kicked into gear simply but. Oh, and remember the Dodgers have been with out Will Smith for 13 video games. They’re 12-4 this season when he begins. Austin Barnes is hitting .104, so catcher was an enormous gap with out Smith. Including him in the course of the Mookie Betts/Freddie Freeman/Max Muncy trio provides the Dodgers their very own formidable foursome.
Who will win the NL West?
Doolittle: I’ve kind of revealed that my metrics favor the Dodgers slightly extra going ahead they usually have already got a small lead. However I will disagree with my goal mind and go subjective right here and choose San Diego. I believe that lineup has potential for some lengthy stretches of very particular issues this summer season. And I believe the Dodgers may have some fallow stretches due to this slight veering off into youth. It will go right down to the final month, however I am selecting the Padres. This choose disappears by tomorrow like a Snapchat, proper?
Gonzalez: The Padres have had Tatis of their lineup for lower than 40% of their video games. They’ve additionally obtained a mixed OPS of .744 from Soto and Machado and a mixed ERA of 6.51 from Snell and Musgrove, the latter of whom is just two begins into his return. And but the Padres have a successful document. I fear about their subsequent layer of depth, however I believe their instant main league expertise is overwhelming they usually aren’t even near hitting full stride. I would nonetheless choose the Padres to win that division.
Schoenfield: I picked the Dodgers earlier than the season and I will persist with that — not that I anticipated Muncy to be main the majors in dwelling runs or Jason Heyward to have an .879 OPS. I nonetheless favor the Dodgers’ total depth to San Diego’s and I believe we’ll proceed to see the younger gamers develop — not simply Outman, however Vargas and Stone, who simply made his first main league begin. And so they have Miller down in Triple-A as much more rotation insurance coverage when wanted.