Week 7 of NFL Season wraps up Monday night. New England Patriots Hosting the (-7.5, 40). Chicago Bears at Gillette Stadium (ESPN, 8:15 ET).
We have another chance to bet on professional football after a thrilling Sunday of action. Which plays do our analysts love the most?
Analysing betting Joe FortenbaughESPN analyst Seth WalderAnalyst for fantasy and sports betting André Snellings, plus Football Outsiders Aaron Schatz They should provide the top plays.
Note: All lines are from Caesars Sportsbook, unless indicated otherwise.
Chicago Bears At New England Patriots (-7.5, 40)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, Gillette Stadium
With Mac Jones What are your thoughts about the spread and total of the Patriots game? Which team will you be taking?
Fortenbaugh: Because Bill Belichick is a master at playing left-handed, a one-dimensional offense like Chicago’s is dangerous. The question is, “Do you trust me?” Justin FieldsTo win this bet, I would like to ask a 32nd-ranked QB in the NFL at 72.7. I have a clear answer to this question: “No.” I brought in a few 6-point teasers from New England on Monday night. I would also lay one-half unit of the teasers on Monday. Patriots At -7.5, plus an Below You can also place a bet.
Snellings: If Jones is indeed back, I’ll be with him Below. Jones, who was hurt in the Patriots’ three previous games, led them to 15.7 points per games. In two of those three games, they combined with their rivals to reach this goal. Fields, on the other hand, has led the Bears at an average of 15.5 point per game. They’ve also combined with their opponent to reach this goal in four of six games. These two teams are more skilled on defense than they are on offense, and have struggled with scoring.
Schatz: The Bears are 31st worst team in the league, and they’re just awful. DVOA Now and on the 30th ESPN’s FPI. The Patriots have played very well the last few weeks. They’re returning to Jones. Bailey ZappeJones may be the better quarterback. However, Jones’s career includes 21 games (as opposed to the three games from earlier in this year). I believe Belichick will build a Patriots defense that shuts down Fields’ offense and the entire Bears offensive. The Patriots will run wild over a Bears run defense DVOA of 27th. PatriotsYou are always welcome.
Walder: FPI is skeptical of Chicago, which it ranks third among the worst teams in the NFL behind the Panthers. Brett Rypien-led Broncos. Fields has a serious problem with sacks. They are primarily on him, although that is not a problem when forecasting this game. The Patriots defense ranks fifth in efficiency this season. The model predicts New England to be 9.9 points favorites. I’ll take it. Patriots.
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 200 yards has been rushed by the Bears in each of their last two games. The Bears boast one of the strongest pass defenses in all of NFL but they are also one of the worst against run. What do you think Stevenson should finish with the most running yards this season (30-1), and his props Monday night?
Snellings: With Damien Harris On Thursday, Stevenson will be back to full practice. I expect him to rush in the 60-70 yard area and to receive production in the low-20s, as opposed to the 266 yards he gained over the past two weeks with Harris. Stevenson could still have a solid game with Harris in a time-share, especially through the air. I still believe he is a candidate for scoring a touchdown.
Fortenbaugh: Stevenson is my favorite, but Harris’ return makes me happy. He just won’t allow me to record enough touches.
Schatz: Fortenbaugh is right here. Bill Belichick Love Stevenson is not the best player in the league because of his RB committees. Harris’s play is what keeps me away from the game. Either Stevenson’s Monday night props are over or under.
With 141 attempts on 402 plays, the Bears have thrown the ball only 35% of all the time — the lowest percentage in the league. Fields’ rush yards prop has been successful in five of six of his away games. It is at 43.5 for Monday evening. What do you think about Chicago’s props for players? Would you consider taking any of these Monday nights?
Fortenbaugh: I’d love to play. UndersParticularly when it concerns Chicago’s rushing offense. Belichick will stack the box and challenge Fields to beat New England using his arm, something Fields has not been able to do in his short time in the NFL.
Snellings: I would take Fields More 43.5 rushing yards. He has averaged 58.5 yards per game in the four previous games. Although I can see Belichick trying to limit Fields’ run and threatening to throw, Fields is still a powerful enough player that I would like to see him do some damage.
Schatz: I’ll take the More Fields’ running yards are important because the Patriots have a history of having trouble with scrambling quarterbacks due to their high level of man coverage. Although I agree with the Patriots’ strategy to force Fields into the throw, he will still be able to get out of the pocket to make a few big plays against this defense.
Walder: I’ll go More For the same reason. The Patriots are using man coverage at a 56% pace this season, which ranks fifth in the NFL. It generally results in more scrambling opportunities by opposing quarterbacks. Fields should be used as much as possible by the Bears.
Which is your favorite bet for Monday’s game?
Fortenbaugh: I love the Bears scoring Below 15.5 total points (+100). This Chicago offense is set for a long night.
Walder: I’ll take Darnell Mooney For More 3.5 receptions (+100). This one is a bit nerve-wracking for me because my model which projects 4.3 receptions on Monday for Mooney, is having trouble forecasting pass rates as low at what the Bears are offering because they are so outliers. Mooney just finished a 7-reception, 12-target game, which I believe is a signal. The Bears will be behind, plus. Have to Pass, even if you don’t want them to. Mooney is the obvious target.