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What you should know about the Monday playoff games
Horford is not to be missed Al HorfordHe has found the fountain to his youth in this postseason. On Saturday, he scored 22 points, 16 rebounds, and 5 assists against Bucks and nearly all of his props were cashed. Should you return to the well? His postseason averages of 13.9 points per game and 9.6 rebounds are both numbers that reflect in his DFS price tag as well as the prop market. However, he is shooting only 50% from 3-point range and the majority of his shots are from deep. This is quite impressive but not sustainable. Jayson Tatum Jaylen BrownAfter Boston’s loss, Horford accounted for 73.8% and 65.5% respectively of the Celtics’ points starters. Horford is left with little to no meat, given that he has attempted one free throw every 40 minutes during the postseason. Horford’s scoring ceiling is lower than prop markets suggest.
Take the belowIn Game 3, 254 points were scored by the Warriors and Grizzlies. With Gary Payton IIThe Warriors’ defensive efficiency was 3.6% higher than it was in their first seven postseason games. This doesn’t mean they are worse without Payton. However, their game plan was simple: Stop everyone but them Ja Morant. The Grizzlies’ star shot 13 of 21 shots, while his teammates shot only 27-of-71 (38%). It is logical to assume that the Warriors will follow a similar strategy on Monday night. Memphis is happy to welcome back Dillon BrooksIt’s dangerous to count on volume from Morant and anyone else. Golden State should have the ability to reduce the effectiveness of the Grizzlies support pieces. Golden State hosted their 17 best defensive efficiency games, with 14 of them being played in front. You should therefore take the under on Memphis’ team or player props. — Jim McCormick & Kyle Soppe
Breaking down the Monday games
Boston CelticsAt Milwaukee Bucks
7:30 p.m. ET, Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee
Line: Bucks
Money line Bucks (-115), Celtics (-105)
Total: 212 points
BPI projected total216 points
BPI wins % Celtics (59.2%)
Questionable: None
Exclusion: None
Note: BPI numbers are used to account for players who have been ruled out, but assume that questionable players will still play
Notable: Saturday’s final line was won by the Celtics by half a point. Boston is not known for its nail-biting nature. Five of the seven previous games were decided by seven points or less. The Celtics are now 5-1 ATS in their last six games. Unders have the same record.
The best bet is: Brook Lopez More than 17.5 points + rebounds
The Bucks are leading inside scoring. They had 52 points under their basket in Game 3. Lopez scored 13 points and grabbed 10 rebounds. He has an average of 11 PPG, 6.0 RPG, and has had a total of 13 points. This trend should continue Monday evening. Eric Moody
Best bets: Celtics ML (-102), Celtics 1Q (+0.5), Jayson Tatum over 3.5 made 3s. I believe that the Boston will win Monday night, and the series. Giannis AntetokounmpoAfter the Celtics’ defense had limited him in his first two games, Antetokounmpo played an incredible game Saturday. Despite Antetokounmpo’s performance, the Bucks almost lost in the final seconds. The Celtics will be hungry and ready to win. They outscored Milwaukee 32-21 in Game 2.
Player props: I prefer Tatum to 3.5 made threes. After going 4 for 19 from the field and 0-for-6 in Game 3, Tatum should be able to step up his game. While this line might seem high, Tatum actually went 4-for-9 from the field and 5-for-10 from beyond it in the first two games. Most players bounce back from a poor performance, even superstars like Tatum. — Erin Dolan
The best bet is: Jrue HolidayOver 1.5 steals
Holiday averaged 1.5 SPG in the playoffs. Holiday managed three steals, while the Celtics had only 12 turnovers.Moody
Best bet: Below 212.0 points
This series has been a defensive slugfest. The Bucks and Celtics combined have scored 196.3 points in the last three games. Only one game has been higher than 204. It is not possible to see this trend changing. Both teams are amongst the most physically and defensively-minded in the league. The pressure keeps building on both sides. I expect another close defensive match in Game 4, with a low score. — Andre Snellings
Memphis GrizzliesAt Golden State Warriors
10:00 p.m. ET, Chase Center, San Francisco
Line: -10)
Money line Warriors (-550), Grizzlies (1400)
Total: 223.5 Points
BPI projected total225.6 Points
BPI wins % Warriors (60.8%)
Questionable: None
Exclusion: Ja Morant
Note: BPI numbers are used to account for players who have been ruled out, but assume that questionable players will still play
Notable: Game 3 was over the 225.5 total by 254 points on Saturday, but we should be cautious if we expect to see it again tonight. With unders of a perfect 3-0 after Grizz overs, the next Memphis game will surpass the total by 17.3 points.
The best bet is: Stephen CurryOver 33.5 points + Assistance
Curry’s postseason average has been 27.6 PPG, and 5.6 APG. In Game 3, Curry had his 44th career 30 point game, which tied him for the third-most active players. With Ja MorantCurry will be missed in Game 4. Moody
The best bet is: Andrew WigginsMore than 23.5 points + assist + rebounds
Wiggins put in one of his finest performances for the Warriors in Game 3. Wiggins’ shot selection and defense were outstanding and he has averaged 16.7 PPG (1.3 APG) and 6.7 RPG- through this series. With the confidence he has right now, Wiggins will be able to surpass these averages in Game 4. Moody
The best bet is: Draymond GreenMore than 7.5 assists
Green was able to assist eight times in Game 3. He will likely again be a distributor for the Warriors’ wide range of shooters. Green averaged 7.0 points per game in the playoffs.Moody
Best bet: Below 224.5 points
The Grizzlies did a remarkable job without Morant in the regular season. They won 20 of the 22 games Morant missed. This formula involved playing a stronger defense to make up for the poorer offensive execution. Both these patterns suggest Game 4 should have a lower scoring score. — Snellings
The best bet is: Dillon BrooksOver 17.5 points Brooks is back after a nearly 2-game absence on Monday night. With Morant likely out, he should be a key point of the Grizzlies offense. Brooks averaged 19.8 points per game without Morant between Nov. 26 and Dec 19. Brooks averaged 19.8 PPG without Morant from Nov. 26 to Dec 19. Brooks could have a fantastic scoring night. — Snellings