All the speculation about where is causing confusion. Aaron Judge Will sign, but what about the question as to where he is? Should sign?
The question is complex. The first is that there is only one view that matters ultimately: Judge’s. Applying our own factors would be to make wild assumptions about Judge’s decision-making process.
But it’s sport, and we do these kinds of things all the time. It’s worth asking a question when you’re talking about Judge, a player of Judges stature. He is one of the most prominent players in the game. A star like this is free to sign, and it’s a good example of the various factors that are driving the MLB offseason.
With these thoughts in mind, I created what is called a Fit Rating. It sounds exactly like it is. Each franchise was rated for the most recent number in each of those categories after I had considered five factors. Each category was given a score of 1, 2, or 3. This is a weighting factor. Three is the most important, one is the least. The final ratings were 91-121.7, with 100 being the average.
These are the five factors
Market: The population of each media market is the main indicator. Adjustments are made to accommodate for different market shares. This category receives two points of weighting.
Ballpark: Which parks are the best for Judge? This conclusion was based on Statcast statistics for expected home runs based upon venue. I used five years’ worth of data. As we all know, Judge scored 62 home runs last season. Statcast says that Judge would have reached 73 if he had played all his games at Great American Park. The figure would have been 51 if he had played at Comerica Park, Detroit. This is another 2-point category.
Payroll: Yes, there is overlap in media market sizes. But not completely. Some teams spend more than others. Based on data from Cot’s Contracts, I calculated a standard score for each team’s Opening Day payroll in the last 15 seasons. I used the average of the three best seasons. This is a 3-point category.
Geography: Judge and his wife attended Linden High School in California. Yankee Stadium is where he has called home his entire career in the big leagues. So I calculated the distance between each major league park and these two venues — Linden High School, Yankee Stadium — and used the shorter distance to calculate the score for this category. The closer you are, the better. This is a small category of weighting, the most important being the lowest.
Consistency: This takes into account how many games teams have won recently (average wins for 162 games in the last three seasons), as well as the average going back 15 years. We want to balance the importance of winning consistently with which teams are most likely to win. This is a three-point category.
This is how all of this was rated and combined.
Jump to…
The Big 3 | They could make a strong case
It’s a reach | Dream on
The Big 3
Score for fit: 121.7
The best suits: Everything
Worst fit: None
The Yankees had the lowest score for ballpark fit. But even there, Yankee Stadium was eighth. All other categories had the Bombers as first or second. The Dodgers are the only team to have won at a higher level in recent times. Other unratable factors should favor a Judge-Yankees reunion. These include familiarity, personal relationships and loyalty. The measurables see the Yankees to be Judge’s best choice.
Score for fit: 120.2
The best suits: Everything
Worst fit: None
The Dodgers are like the Yankees. The Dodger Stadium is third best among all venues. Statcast estimates that Judge would have hit 69 homers at Dodger Stadium last season. The Dodgers have a large market, huge financial resources and are located in Judge’s hometown. They are the most successful team in the field for the past 15 seasons (at least in regular-season dominance).
Score for fit: 112.4
The best suits: Geography, Payroll, and Market
Worst fit: Ballpark and Consistency
Citi Field, which is 15th in the list of venues, is a problem. The Mets have been an inconsistent franchise throughout the years, particularly coming from the largest market in baseball. The Mets are now a top-tier team under Steve Cohen’s ownership. This means that even though they rate highly, their real score may be closer to the Yankees or Dodgers than this.
They could make a compelling case
Score for fit: 107.5
The best suits: Market, Payroll, and Geography
Worst fit: Consistency
A note about geography: This is not just for Philly, but all major league teams. The truth is that this is unlikely to be a factor with the exception of teams with obvious geographic advantages (Yankees Mets Giants Athletics and Giants). Judge would really choose the Phillies if Citizens Bank Park is close to Yankee Stadium. Most likely not. This is why this category was only awarded one point in the weighting process. Philadelphia still has much to offer. Judge could be impressed that the Phillies aren’t winning consistently but they’re coming off a World Series appearance.
Score for fit: 105.8
The best suits: Geography, Payroll, and Success
Worst fit: Ballpark
Judge’s swing plane is a great way to generate homers to the center and right-center. However, it works against Fenway Park which, according to Statcast for at least five years, ranks only 25th among all venues. Judge was more aware of his pull last season, and could be even more so if Judge had the Green Monster to target on a daily basis.
Score for fit: 105.6
The best suits: Market, Ballpark and Payroll
Worst fit: Consistency
Judge would have to be sold because the Angels lack of success on the field is a major problem. Arte Moreno has done the same thing with premium free agents for the Halos in the past, but the team is now reportedly trying to sell. Anaheim has a lot of unknowns.
Score for fit: 105.6
The best suits: Consistency and Market
Worst fit: Ballpark, Payroll
Toronto is a large market and the Jays have a good chance of continuing their success. It still feels a stretch to use the Jays’ ranking formula over the other teams. But, you create a formula as best as you can, trust it, and accept the results. As a ballplayer.
Score for fit: 104.9
The best suits: Market and Consistency
Worst fit: Ballpark, Geography
Truist Park would be an issue on Judge’s traditional swing. But it would have boosted Judge in 2022 (64 homers), so perhaps that’s not a factor. The Braves’ best asset is their consistent winning streak, which is likely to continue for many more years.
Score for fit: 104.5
The best suits: Ballpark and Consistency
Worst fit: Geography
Houstonians love their home deep in Texas, but Minute Maid Park isn’t the most suitable venue for us to rate the geography. It is too far away from Linden, the Bronx and all of Texas. Judge would still be able take aim at Crawford Boxes. But, the Astros win. A frightening proposition.
Score for fit: 104.4
The best suits: Market and Ballpark
Worst fit: Payroll and Geography
Talk about the perfect finish for the White Sox. Judge’s final contract is likely to net him in the region of $350million. That’s not a place where the White Sox like to play.
Score for fit: 103.3
The best suits: Geography, Payroll and Consistency.
Worst fit: Ballpark
Because Judge made comments about Barry Bonds as a boy, I was very interested in adding a category called Judge’s favorite boyhood team. I would have given the Giants 120 and every other team 90 points. In the end, I decided against it. This is where it can be difficult to judge someone’s priorities (no pun intended). As someone who grew-up rooting for the Royals it would be an honor to have the chance to play for them. huge factor. Judge and the Giants can’t be trusted. It’s still not bad, is it? The Giants are able to use a lot more resources that the Royals. Oracle Park may not be the ideal location for Judge, but they rate in the top three of all the categories. Their Fit Rating was lower than expected because they are not elite in any other categories than geography.
12. Chicago Cubs
Score for fit: 103.1
The best suits: Market and Payroll
Worst fit: Ballpark, Consistency, and Geography
Judge’s swing evolution might make it difficult to calculate the ballpark. Statcast predicts Judge would have hit 63 homers last season at Wrigley Field. Judge would have a great time on warm summer days, with the wind blowing at the Friendly Confines.
It is possible
Score for fit: 102.8
The best suits: Consistency
Worst fit: Market and Ballpark
The Guardians are a constant winner. They do this by avoiding large investments in one player to attract Judge’s attention.
14. Tampa Bay Rays
Score for fit: 101.9
The best suits: Consistency
Worst fit: Everything else
Although the Rays win, a Tampa Bay payroll that includes Judge would require a more extreme descriptor than the “top-heavy” one. (I should also note that the Judges spend most of their offseasons in Tampa. However, I didn’t calculate the distances to that area for the Geography category. Rays and Marlins, sorry. This assumes that, in addition to all the reasons why one might want to live here, the baseball part of this decision has more to do the Yankees’ spring-training facility location than the proximity to Tropicana.
15. Seattle Mariners
Score for fit: 101.9
The best suits: Ballpark
Worst fit: Payroll, Geography
T-Mobile Park is 12th, while everything else is middle of the pack.
Score for fit: 101.0
The best suits: Ballpark, Geography, Payroll
Worst fit: Consistency
Judge contracts can be a long-term commitment. But, how much would Judge have the ability to endure while they wait to see if Nats’ current rebuilding plan works out?
17. San Diego Padres
Score for fit: 101.0
The best suits: Geography
Worst fit: Market
Rating Padres games like this is difficult because they are so unpredictable as a franchise. You would have to assume that Judge signing was part of a plan for letting the Padres. Juan Soto When the opportunity presents itself, walk. This doesn’t sound like a good plan.
Score for fit: 100.8
The best suits: Consistency
Worst fit: Market.
The Cardinals don’t have the money to sign megacontracts. They trade for starsPaul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado) and have faith that their clubhouse dynamic and the baseball culture in St. Louis will help them keep those stars. They have used this approach well and they have not traded Judge since my last check.
19. Texas Rangers
Score for fit: 100.6
The best suits: Ballpark, Market and Payroll
Worst fit: Consistency and geography
Statcast reports that Judge 68 homers would have been earned by the Rangers’ new stadium. The Rangers are determined to make it to the top of baseball’s tier, and they are willing to spend a lot to get there. Judge signing would signal a new era for Arlington. This is a possibility, even though the Rangers have never won consistently.
20. Cincinnati Reds
Score for fit: 100.3
The best suits: Ballpark
Worst fit: Everything else
Except for their ballpark, it’s not hard to see why the Reds make sense. This is where Judge can rack up the longest balls. Statcast says he would have hit there 62 homers in 2017. He would have been aiming at Barry Bonds’ single season MLB record.
Score for fit: 100.3
The best suits: Ballpark and Consistency
Worst fit: Market, Payroll, and Geography
Although the Brewers are a solid, profitable, and well-run franchise they won’t spend $350 millions on Judge.
Have a great day!
Score for fit: 98.9
The best suits: Geography, Ballpark
Worst fit: Market and Consistency
Perhaps the Orioles would be willing to move their fences in a bid for Judge’s approval?
Score for fit: 98.8
The best suits: Payroll
Worst fit: Consistency
Even the best match here won’t work. There have been periods in which the Diamondbacks extended their payroll. If you approach this subject with a concept such as “payroll capability”, they will end up in the upper quartile of majors. Arizona is likely to not be courting Judge in this more serious era.
Score for fit: 98.7
The best suits: Geography
Worst fit: Everything else
Oakland’s much-deplored ballpark is closest in majors to Linden High School. The A’s will do their best to avoid it. Judge doesn’t get much from Oakland, other than geography.
25. Colorado Rockies
Score for fit: 98.7
The best suits: Ballpark
Worst fit: Everything else
If they had the money, Judge would be a great investment for the Rockies. It’s a great place to play, and Judge could post comic-book numbers in Coors Field. The Rockies have not spent or won consistently. It is not possible for me to see it happening.
26. Minnesota Twins
Score for fit: 96.4
The best suits: Consistency
Worst fit: Everything else
Judge might be looking for a short-term flexible megadeal like the one. Carlos Correa Inked last spring with the Twins… but no. Ain’t happening. Both the situations are very different. Judge is now 30 so Judge can’t be counted on to hold this position in free agency ever again.
27. Detroit Tigers
Score for fit: 95.8
The best suits: Payroll
Worst fit: Ballpark
Detroit’s advantage is that the Tigers have in the past stretched their payroll far beyond what one would expect in a market like Detroit. However, the original owner of that team is no longer here and his son is now running it in a more realistic manner to the realities of the region. The Tigers are not in the right place to offer Judge a lucrative offer.
28. Miami Marlins
Score for fit: 94.2
The best suits: None
Worst fit: Everything
Well, Giancarlo Stanton Although Judge was Judge’s teammate in Bronx, he did not get a huge deal from this franchise. But it’s not the Marlins.
Score for fit: 91.7
The best suits: Geography
Worst fit: Everything else
When you feel down, you can imagine yourself as the Pirates’ General Manager. Bob Nutting is calling you with the suggestion of offering Aaron Judge a $400,000,000 contract. There are worse things.
Score for fit: 91.0
The best suits: None
Worst fit: Everything
I was raised a Royals-fan. The fact that there are MLB players you cannot see signing with the Royals, is a real bummer. It’s not hard to believe that such an attempt is even possible. John Sherman, shock us all!