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Jeff PassanESPN
MORE THAN AMonth into Major League Baseball’s lockoutKnowing that the players and the league have not had any substantive negotiations since the work stoppage began, and that spring camp is fast approaching with no sign of a new collective bargaining arrangement, a long-time baseball man calmly asked his phone this week, “What’s the f— are you doing?”
This man isn’t an alarmist. He has an intimate understanding of how the relationship between league and players’ union works. He is becoming increasingly skeptical about the likelihood of either side reaching a settlement anytime soon. Although he isn’t yet ready for baseball to lose games because of the labor war, he doesn’t think it will. won’tYou can also lose games.
He sees it again. The same thing happened in 2020 when a tentative to negotiate a contract for the season collapsed. Both the league and players don’t talk to each other, but they do not negotiate. The animosity of the parties doesn’t matter as much to them as the substance and issues they are discussing. They can’t even get at the substance of their issues because of how toxic the relationship is.
“We are in such an industry that it’s kinda like politics,” he said. “Everyone is obsessed with winning the narrow game that we have created for ourselves. It’s impossible to be practical. There is no moderation.
While he’s not saying that there is no hope, it can sometimes feel like this. At the moment, baseball is almost irrelevant. In a normal winter, players and teams would sign and make trades. The promise of catchers and pitchers reporting would be enough to keep the stove on. Today, there’s nothing. MLB’s official site looks like an old GeoCities webpage, and its TV network remains in permanent repeat mode. The likelihood of catchers and pitchers reporting in mid February is decreasing by the minute. After 36 days of silence, there are no plans for both sides to discuss the economic issues that have cleaved them.
He is a longtime baseball fan, but he also serves as a proxy. He is your friend, your family, and your friends. He is everybody you know who loves baseball. He wonders if owners and players will allow a dispute that had never been resolved with any casualties to escalate into something that could severely damage the sport. He is also frustrated. He is also annoyed. He’s over it.
And this is probably what bothers him most: He doesn’t know there’s an easy way to get a deal. Baseball does it all. They’ve all walked right past it so far.
There is PERHAPS nothing betterThis shows how far apart MLB & the MLB Players Association are from their last bargaining session Dec. 1. Both believed that they had made concessions over the past few months. Both laughed at the other’s ideas. One last chance came up at the Dallas luxury hotel. They might not be able to pull it off, but they tried.
The sides spoke for seven minutes that afternoon before the meeting ended. The owners locked out all the players at midnight.
These consequences continue to resonate. MLB stated earlier in the day that it was open to discussing core economics but on condition that they do not discuss changes to the six year reserve period for free agency, arbitration system, or revenue sharing. That condition was not accepted by the union. Seven minutes into the meeting, there was nothing left for discussion. MLB left the hotel without returning.
Five weeks later, sources say the fallout from the failed negotiations remains unresolved. According to sources, the union feels it’s now the league’s turn, and MLB is working to offer proposals. Five days into the new Year, there is still no bargaining session.
The lack of urgency is what concerns 27 ESPN representatives, including players, owners, agents and club executives. The fact that the parties are reverting to the same patterns as they were during the disastrous back and forth that resulted in Rob Manfred’s 2020 implementation of a 60-game season has not helped to encourage optimism.
In November, Manfred played down those early-coronavirus-pandemic shutdown negotiations as anomalous, and certainly, they were under different circumstances. However, it is wrong to say they aren’t instructive. Today’s chasm is similar to the one that ended with Manfred implementing an entire season, because there was no agreement. That declaration was made after 27 days of negotiations. ESPN has almost unanimously stated that late January is the best time for negotiations to begin.
These discussions are far more complex than the COVID-shortened seasons and have far-reaching consequences. Collective bargaining agreements are baseball’s fascia. They connect all aspects of the game and bring disparate systems together. It is the place where change takes place, and the players want it to happen this time.
They want earlier free agency, earlier arbitration and a rejiggered drafting system. Also, they demand more money go to younger players, a lower minimum salary, less revenue sharing, and an increased luxury tax threshold. These are significant changes but not necessarily paradigm-shifting — even though Manfred in a letter to his fans immediately after locking out the players, argued that they would “threaten the ability of most clubs to be competitive.” He did not provide any evidence supporting the notion that players would become free agents after five or two years, or reach arbitration after two years. This is because there is no such evidence. All is fair when it comes to labor war, including bogeymanning.
The league wants to protect the status quo and keep minor changes at bay, but is really interested in maintaining its limited spending.
In 2021, player salaries dropped to $4.05 trillion — $200 million less than the 2017 record and the lowest levels since 2015. The league had not yet reached $4 billion. Players are not only affected by the league’s total spending. Two teams exceeded the $210 million threshold for competitive balance taxes, but the Phillies ($209.4million), Yankees (208.4million), Mets (207.7million), Mets(207.7million), Red Sox ($207.6million), Astros ($206.6million) all stayed within the limit.
Although baseball does not have a salary cap but five teams are tippy-toeing towards $210 million, it is a good sign that there is one. The threshold has been identified as a focal point of any deal, so it’s not surprising that sources say this. The threshold increased from $178 million in 2011 to $206 million in 2019. Forbes reports that the industry’s revenues increased from $6.3 billion up to $10.7 billion between 2011 and 2019. This is a 70% increase in revenue compared to the 15.7% CBT threshold.
The league recently offered to raise the CBT threshold from the current $210 million to $214 millions in 2022, and then end at $220 million. The most recent offer for the union’s first year-threshold was $245 million. MLB believes that an increase in CBT threshold will only exacerbate the differences between large and small-payroll groups. The union just wants more money for big-money clubs to spend.
Although it may be premature to declare CBT discussions the bellwether for a deal, even the most vocal union members admit that the MLBPA’s list of demands will not be fulfilled. The likelihood of discussions moving forward is that the players rank their importance. According to sources at the ownership level, this was the goal of the Dec. 1 meeting. Is “competitive integrity,” a phrase used often by players who claim that tanking poses a threat to the sport, truly their greatest concern. Are players getting paid earlier in their career because of it? Or increasing the CBT to stop cosplaying as a salary limit?
The answer will eventually come out, and it is crucial that the season starts on schedule. Two players indicated that they are ready to miss games and not just because it is possible, but because they believe it will. Others believe that both parties will be more cautious due to the possibility of losing their paychecks or revenue from games. A former official has seen multiple negotiations and sees it more realistically.
He said that “the only thing that can move either side is mutual assured destruction.”
IN THE SPIRITESPN asked more than twelve major league sources about their views on how to avoid a winter that is more nuclear than the one currently underway. The majority of the group, which included one owner, two league officials and two general managers, two assistant GMs, four players, one union official, and two agents, offered an alternative version of an agreement.
1. Raising minimum salaries to approximately $650,000 — an 14% increase
2. Pre-arbitration players can get a performance bonus pool
3. The universal designated hitter should be implemented
4. Increase the number of postseason teams from 10 to 14.
5. For free agents, remove indirect draft-pick compensation
6. Changes to the draft are needed to discourage tanking and reward small market participants.
7. CBT threshold should be raised to the $230-million range. Other restrictions such as non-monetary or recidivism penalties, must be removed.
This may seem unfair to the players. After the financial losses suffered during the 2020 pandemic, owners don’t want to go through that again. However, a small change to the system is worth it.
That means games being lost, revenue falling, gambling deals being wasted, and players who want to leave with a few Ws becoming more angrier and willingly to wait longer. It allows the league to avoid having to take the blame for losing games — much of which would fall upon Manfred, who has proved to be a highly capable scapegoat of the very online. A new, five-year agreement would allow MLB and the players to work out mutually acceptable, long-term changes. This assumes they can actually communicate with each other.
Most sources suggest that players would have to give up arbitration and free agency earlier in the deal. This would be a problem for some players. A 14-team playoff with potentially disastrous results would be if teams decided not to seek free agency or arbitration earlier and tried to sneak in the postseason with an average roster. This could incentivize teams with a lower than.500 team to spend in hopes that they can win a playoff ticket. The potential pitfalls are worth the possible benefits, according to most people who tried to create a path.
It doesn’t matter how good the players are — and the huge guaranteed contracts and $1.7 million spent this winter already are undeniably great — it shouldn’t prevent them from making progress on some of these areas. Not being hypocritical in asking for the CBT threshold to be raised and for greater competition integrity is not an unreasonable request. Past agreements have not raised the CBT enough; they have allowed tanks to flourish. A system that allows teams to win because they feel it is necessary to do so poses a greater threat to the game and its survival than large-market teams spending more. The latter may be existential for MLB. If so, then it might introduce more levers that will benefit small-market players who still have to rely on $50 million in payrolls.
Owners will be furious at any deal that promises more money to their players through minimum salaries and bonus pool pools. Plus, it ostensibly gives them more freedom and less restraints. The truth is that players are frustrated by the fact that owners can spend less in free agency to compensate for the higher salaries and bonus pools. Draft spending has been and will continue to be capped. International amateur spending is capped. Arbitration costs are predictable. Owners have the ability to change their approach in one area: free agency. This is why salaries have fallen in recent years.
With spring training approaching, that’s quite a lot to think about. And when one high-ranking source states “no one is getting serious until late January or early February”, it doesn’t necessarily instill hope for a timely resolution. It’s important to remember certain dates, even if there are some who see it going in the wrong directions.
Yes, February 1st is still the first test. Spring training may be delayed if they don’t make progress by that time. This is not a big deal. March 1 is the day that triggers the alarm. Only a quick agreement can save the game if there isn’t any progress before March 1. Even that may not be possible. There is still agency to complete, arbitration to adjudicate, as well as algorithms for teams that can rejigger based upon all the new inputs. Players cannot talk to teams if they have not set up travel arrangements. Foreign nationals will require assistance in obtaining visas for their return. It is not a great idea to combine that with three weeks of spring training.
At this point, all that is needed to see the game of baseball is time and a plan. The personalities of Bruce Meyer, Dan Halem, and Tony Clark at the negotiating tables, the steadiness of Manfred’s and Tony Clark’s hands leading their sides and the volatility among the owners and players — all these variables have history. But they can’t always forecast the future.
Baseball has the chance to prove that this isn’t 2020, and that the parties can come to an agreement. For now, it isn’t moving forward. It is stuck at the same place it has been for five weeks.