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Andre SnellingsESPN
How will Brunson’s stats change this season after he moves to Gotham to become the starting point guard New York Knicks? We can get an idea by looking at his last season’s productions for the Mavericks… but with a twist.
Brunson just finished the best season of her career in Dallas. As a full time starter, Brunson set new personal records with 16.3 PG, 48 APG, and 0.9 RPG. In addition, he shot 50.2 FG%/37.3 P%/84.0 F% in just 31.9 MPG.
Despite being very solid numbers, they don’t accurately reflect what we should have expected from him on Knicks. This is because his circumstances with the Mavericks were so different than what they’ll be with his new team.
Brunson teamed up with one of NBA’s most ball-dominant players last season. Luka DoncicFor the second straight season, he led the league in Usage Percentage, or USG%.
Brunson (21.9 USG%), Doncic (37.3 USG%), was the primary facilitator. Brunson (21.9% USG%) was more of a finisher and less of a creator. Because he didn’t have the ball, his production was limited.
His production did shift when Doncic was not available. Brunson’s averages in 17 regular-season games without Doncic were 20.4 PPG (7.5 APG) and 3.9 RPG (3.9 RPG). This gives Brunson a better idea of what Brunson’s numbers could look like with the Knicks.
Julius Randle Brunson will take over the role of primary offense creator for Knicks last year and had a 28.7 USG%. He will be responsible for setting the scene and creating easy shots for his teammates. But he will also be the player who has the ball in his hand that can take his shot.
We also saw Brunson’s top-end production potential as he was very aggressive in creating offenses for stretches during the playoffs. The Mavericks relied heavily on Brunson to be their offensive engine when Doncic was unable to play in the first three playoff games. He responded by averaging 32.0 ppg (50.7 FG%, 41.2 3P%, 85.0FT%), 5.3 APG, 5.3 RPG & 2.3 3PG in 39.4 MPG while leading his team 2-1 series lead over the 49 win teams Utah Jazz.
Brunson will not be able to score as many points per season as he did last year, but the fact that he was able to do it in the playoffs against a very strong defensive team while maintaining his shooting percentages across all of them is a positive sign of the scaleability of Brunson’s scoring ability.
Brunson did not start dropping 30 per game after a hot streak of unsustainable shooting for a few weeks. Instead, he increased his volume while still taking the same shots and maintaining the same percentages.
What will Brunson’s stats be this season with the Knicks then? I expect Brunson to average around the same amount as he did last season in regular season games without Doncic. It’s a strong stat, but it’s not as aggressive like what he showed in his regular season games without Doncic. However, the Knicks do have talented offensive players who can match him.
Randle and RJ Barrett Brunson will likely see them average somewhere near Doncic’s league leading usage. They both have the ability to score 20 PPG, and Brunson will make sure that they are fully utilized.
We do know that Brunson can carry extra gear in case of injuries. Brunson will be able to take on more responsibility if he is needed to.
Brunson is ranked in the top 25 of my preseason fantasy basketball rankings. I expect Brunson to have an exceptional season in his first campaign here in New York.