Baseball doesn’t have an offseason. This is evident in the First Pitch Arizona conference that Baseball HQ presents annually around November 1. The Arizona Fall League is the focus of “FPAZ”. This conference gives us a look at some of the upcoming rookies, as well as an opportunity to reengage and look ahead at 2023’s fantasy baseball game.
After a weekend of scouting the 2022 numbers and trends, these are a few players I’ve changed my mind about.
Heston Kjerstad, OF, Baltimore Orioles
He has a lot of sweet swing, and he only left one home run behind Seattle Mariners Robert Perez Jr. is Saturday’s Home Run Derby prospect. Naturally, Robert Perez Jr. is your guy if you are playing in a fantasy-related contest. While the Derby isn’t fantasy-relevant, I’m happy I was able to see Kjerstad’s natural, raw power. He had myocarditis that kept him from playing on the field until the No. The 2020 amateur draft was Kjerstad’s 2nd selection. He will make his pro debut at Class A Delmarva on June 10, 2022. Kjerstad may start next season in Double A Bowie. After the year, the Orioles must decide on his 40 man roster status.
Lucas Giolito, SP, Chicago White Sox
Giolito is my longest-running keeper league. I have an important share. I’ve been leaning towards his departure, but am now more inclined after Saturday’s “The Next Big Thing” panel disclosed that his spin rate dropped sharply due to the June 2021 ban on sticky substances. Giolito’s 2022 four-seam fastball was nearly 2,000 rpms lower than it was in 2020. It was also down over 1 mph. He doesn’t have the ability to pitch with ace-caliber stuff anymore.
Luis Garcia, SP, Houston Astros
Garcia was not one of the slow-tempo pitchers I expected to see on Saturday’s panel. Statcast revealed that Garcia had the second-slowest time between pitches and empty bases among pitchers who threw more than 750 (22 seconds), behind only Jeremy Johnson. Shohei Ohtani‘s 21.7), and second-slowest at contacting men on base (27.1), just behind only Josiah Gray‘s 27.2). Garcia was by far the slowest-working Astros starter, and he’s more of a change-of-pace, minimize-hard-contact type, so the adjustment to the pitch clock could be tougher for him than his rotation mates.
Alejandro Kirk, C, Toronto Blue Jays
Kirk’s breakthrough 2022 campaign was a credit to him. It placed him at third place in fantasy points. Ryan Bloomfield from Baseball HQ reminded us that Kirk cooled down dramatically in the 50th game and batting.236/.338/.298, ranking ninth among true catchers for fantasy points. Kirk had never played more that 92 games in a professional season before. With 139 games and two postseason games under his belt, he may be better prepared for the summer grind of 2023. He’s a contact-oriented, high floor player and you should draft him for that skill. Blue Jays, No. 1 positional honours
Aaron Nola, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
Rob Silver of the Launch Angle Podcast made an interesting point about how, with fewer wins going to starting pitchers than ever, a pay–for-wins strategy might be more sensible in 2023, particularly in larger leagues (15-team, mixed, and NFBC-style). Nola’s offense appeared more natural during the postseason of 2022, while he only managed 11 wins in 32 regular season starts, could make a good relative draft pick. The Bill James Handbook projections put Nola at 14 wins. That’s tied for the second-most in the league.
Matt Mervis, 1B, Chicago Cubs
In Phoenix, the Mervis buzz was still strong in November. The 2020 undrafted, free agent from Duke batted at.309 with 36 homers across three minor league levels, 2022. He then hit another six home runs in his first 16 games of the Arizona Fall League. Mervis made a strong showing in Saturday’s Home Run Derby. There is little fantasy relevance to such contests. Mervis also took home Fall Stars Game MVP honors. Mervis was the most talked-about player at the conference. Although he isn’t a top prospect in 2023, he is one of the most impact candidates among this year’s potential rookies. Mervis brings a tweaked swing and better-than-anticipated contact approach while facing little in the way of competition for the Cubs’ first base job. Mervis should be considered the favorite to win the job, even though Chicago may bring in a veteran on a nonguaranteed contract.
Josh Jung, 3B, Texas Rangers
Kirk is emerging as one of this offseason’s best draft value. In 17 NFBC drafts, he is ranked 209th. This is remarkable considering the prices of similar young hitters.Bobby Witt Jr. eighth, Corbin Carroll 62nd, Gunnar Henderson 97th). Jung had a great first week in major league before his performance began to slow down. Although his 38.2% strikeout rate is alarming, he’s a solid power-hitting prospect and should be the Rangers regular third baseman in 2023.