NBA Western Convention play-in race

The NBA's Western Convention playoff and play-in tournament races are greater than what commissioner Adam Silver might have ever hoped.

There are nonetheless eight groups that would find yourself within the West play-in match. The remaining groups battling for the playoffs are additionally battling for seeding — and the fitting to keep away from the play-in altogether.

After Sunday's video games, the Nos. 5 and eight seeds are separated by a half sport. The LA Clippers and Golden State Warriors are tied at No. 5 with 41-38 information, whereas the Los Angeles Lakers and New Orleans Pelicans are tied at No. 7 at 40-38.

The Minnesota Timberwolves (39-40), who on Sunday misplaced to the Portland Trail Blazers in a game they were favored by nearly 20 points, and Oklahoma City Thunder (38-41) aren't far behind at Nos. 9 and 10. The flailing Dallas Mavericks are one sport again of the Thunder, and the Utah Jazz are a half sport again of Dallas.

However there's a lot nonetheless undecided with seven days remaining within the common season.

With the assistance of ESPN's Basketball Energy Index (BPI), let's study 5 of essentially the most impactful play-in situations within the West — some extra chaotic than others.

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Situation 1: AD vs. New Orleans, and two groups trying to take the subsequent step

Pelicans vs. Lakers
Wolves vs. Thunder

BPI odds for these matchups: 8.5%

Based on our BPI projections, that is the most probably play-in state of affairs heading into Tuesday's video games.

It is presently a toss up between the Pelicans and Lakers to see who would find yourself internet hosting the 7-8 sport, though New Orleans would favor to have the Lakers decide swap choice imply one thing, so even swapping one decide within the draft might have an effect.

The Timberwolves going through the Thunder is the most probably 9-10 state of affairs as nicely. Oklahoma Metropolis would have the prospect to get again to the postseason simply two years after hitting the rebuild button.

The Timberwolves might put themselves in place to make back-to-back journeys to the playoffs for the primary time for the reason that franchise made eight consecutive journeys between 1997 and 2004. (Minnesota hasn't received a playoff collection since reaching the convention finals in 2004.)

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Situation 2: A Finals-worthy play-in, and the Mavs sneak in

Warriors vs. Lakers
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks

BPI odds for these matchups: 3%

When the Mavericks traded Spencer Dinwiddie, Dorian Finney-Smith, a first-round decide and a pair of second-round picks to the Brooklyn Nets for Kyrie Irving earlier than the deadline, it was purported to raise the Mavericks to new heights alongside celebrity Luka Doncic.

That partnership has fallen flat after a promising begin. Dallas received Irving's first two video games as a Maverick regardless of Doncic lacking each as a consequence of damage, and their win towards the Sacramento Kings on Feb. 10 put them at 31-26. Since then, Dallas has gone 6-16 and are on the verge of lacking the play-in match altogether.

Dallas has gone 4-11 in video games through which Doncic and Irving play, and for the reason that commerce the Mavericks have allowed 118.3 factors per 100 possessions, which might rank twenty eighth within the NBA over a full season.

Additionally, if a Zion vs. LeBron matchup is must-see TV, how concerning the Warriors vs. LeBron in a playoff appetizer? The loser would nonetheless have one other probability to get in, but when that probability got here towards Doncic and Irving in a must-win sport? Signal us up.

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Situation 3: The battle in L.A.

Clippers vs. Lakers
Pelicans vs. Thunder

BPI odds for these matchups: 1.5%

The Lakers and Clippers have by no means confronted off within the playoffs. How a few play-in showdown? Lower than every week after Wednesday's Lakers-Clippers tilt (10 p.m. ET, ESPN) this state of affairs pits the 2 rivals towards one another — this time with the No. 7 seed at stake.

Attributable to Paul George‘s latest knee injury, this matchup would possibly lose some star energy, however a showdown between James, Davis and Kawhi Leonard is a worthy comfort prize.

The Lakers have turn into a brand new staff for the reason that commerce deadline acquisitions of D'Angelo Russell, Jarred Vanderbilt and Malik Beasley. Los Angeles has received 10 of its final 14 video games and are 3-1 since James returned from a foot damage.

The Pelicans, in the meantime, have taken benefit of a good late-season schedule and will discover themselves internet hosting the 9-10 sport for the second consecutive 12 months. Final season, they defeated the San Antonio Spurs and Clippers to safe the No. 8 seed, then put a scare into the top-seeded Suns within the first spherical.

The Thunder — just like the Jazz — have been considered a frontrunner within the Wembanyama sweepstakes after 2022 No. 2 decide Chet Holmgren suffered a season-ending foot damage. As an alternative, the Thunder have saved themselves playoff related.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been a revelation this season,averaging 31.5 factors, 5.4 assists and 4.8 rebounds per sport. Jalen Williams has vaulted into the Rookie of the 12 months dialog, and Josh Giddey, at 20 years previous, averaged 16.6 factors, 7.9 rebounds and 6.2 assists per sport in his second season.

If the Thunder get previous the Pelicans in a possible 9-10 sport, they may find yourself assembly the Clippers in a battle for the No. 8 seed; LA traded Gilgeous-Alexander and a slew of picks to Oklahoma Metropolis in a blockbuster deal for George in the summertime of 2019.

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Situation 4: AD vs. New Orleans, Gobert vs. Utah

Pelicans vs. Lakers
Timberwolves vs. Jazz

BPI odds for these matchups: lower than 1%

The Jazz have the longest odds of any staff remaining to make the play-in match, but when they win out to complete 40-42, they've a shot.

One state of affairs: Utah would find yourself going through Minnesota within the 9-10 play-in sport. That is proper, Rudy Gobert towards the staff that despatched him away for fairly the haul within the offseason.

The Jazz, who additionally traded away Donovan Mitchell, have been projected to be firmly within the race for projected No. 1 decide Victor Wembanyama however as an alternative received 10 of their first 13 video games as first-time All-Star Lauri Markkanen took his breakout EuroBasket efficiency and cranked it up a notch as soon as he settled again into the NBA on his new staff.

The Jazz haven't helped their play-in probabilities in current weeks, dropping six of their final seven, however being able to take a lottery decide and add to their staff will not be a foul factor.

Minnesota and Utah cut up the four-game season collection — and the Jazz went 2-1 within the video games that Gobert performed.

As for the Pelicans and Lakers, there's loads of incentive for New Orleans to complete forward of Los Angeles within the standings. New Orleans has the choice for a first-round decide swap in June's NBA draft. (The Lakers do personal the tiebreaker over the Pelicans within the standings, so if the groups completed tied within the common season, the Lakers can be the upper seed in a direct head-to-head tiebreaker and get the decrease draft decide of the 2, nullifying the swap.)

Any matchup can be stuffed with drama due to LeBron James and Anthony Davis going through off towards The Forehead's former staff. And with any Pelicans' state of affairs, there's the potential for Zion Williamson‘s return. New Orleans is predicted to supply an replace Wednesday on Williamson's newest re-evaluation from his proper hamstring pressure.

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Situation 5: The six-way logjam — and tiebreaker insanity

BPI odds for this state of affairs: 0.000009%

It is the final word longshot, however in order for you most chaos, this state of affairs is for you. Right here, the Clippers, Warriors, Lakers, Pelicans, Timberwolves and Thunder all end 41-41. Let's break it down.

The one head-to-head matchups remaining between these six groups are Thunder-Warriors on Tuesday, Clippers-Lakers on Wednesday, and Pelicans-Timberwolves on Sunday, the ultimate day of the common season.

First, a refresher on the NBA's tiebreaker guidelines:

• Tiebreaker No. 1: Win proportion in video games performed among the many tied groups

• Tiebreaker No. 2: Division chief wins tie over non-division leaders

• Tiebreaker No. 3: Division win proportion, if tied groups are in the identical division

• Tiebreaker No. 4: Convention win proportion

• Tiebreaker No. 5: Win proportion towards convention groups eligible for the playoffs

• Tiebreaker No. 6: Level differential

On this state of affairs, if Minnesota defeats New Orleans on Sunday to succeed in .500, they might boast an 11-6 file towards the opposite 5 groups and safe the No. 5 seed.

The Lakers and Pelicans would every be 10-8 (on this state of affairs, the Lakers defeat the Clippers on Wednesday). L.A. owns the head-to-head tiebreaker over New Orleans, which means the Lakers would land No. 6 and the Pelicans would take No. 7.

On this state of affairs, regardless of Oklahoma Metropolis defeating Golden State on Tuesday, the Warriors (11th of September) would nonetheless be No. 8 and the Thunder (8-11) can be No. 9. The Clippers (7-11 after the loss to the Lakers) would end at No. 10.

Bought all that? Good. It will be a wild week within the West.